Doc's Daily Commentary

Mind Of Mav

New Blockchain Research Summarized

 

Today, we’re doing something a little different: we’re going academic. 

 

How Stablecoin Issuances Impact Cryptocurrency Markets

 

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Summary of stablecoin issuances between April 2019 and March 2020. The dominance of Tether is clear from the median issuance of $22.55 million and a maximum issuance of $302.28 million, both significantly higher than all other stablecoins. USD coin issuances and Huobi USD issuances are more frequent than Tether’s. Issuances for Gemini USD and DAI are fairly infrequent, with 11 and six issuances respectively over an 11-month period.
 

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The most significant and largest impact on cryptocurrency returns is 0–24 hours after stablecoin issuances for BTC, ETH, XRP and LTC as illustrated by the bottom row.
 

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Abnormal returns for bitcoin in the 24-hours before and after stablecoin issuances. HUSD has the largest significant effect 0–24 hours after issuance, while GUSD has the largest significant effect in 0–12 hours after issuance. USDT only significantly affects bitcoin returns in the 0–24 hours after each issuance event.

New Research Papers Pinpoint Weaknesses in Bitcoin’s Lightning Network

1. ‘HTLC is Crazy Cheap to Attack’

“…We’d like to bring to your attention our recent result concerning HTLC… Essentially, we find that HTLC security relies on miners being altruistic, or at least myopic. This might be enough for some time, but it took us 150 lines of code to make bitcoind non-myopic.

On the positive side, we discovered an alternative to HTLC that we call MAD-HTLC, which is provably secure — everyone’s best interest is to behave as desired. We’ve notified relevant teams in advance.”

2. Flood and Loot: A Systemic Attack on the Lightning Network

 

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3. Lightning Network: a second path towards centralisation of the Bitcoin economy

“…only about 10% of the nodes hold 80% of the bitcoins at stake in Lightning (on average, across the entire period); moreover, the average Gini coefficient of the nodes strengths is ~0.88. These results seem to confirm the tendency for the Lightning Network architecture to become ‘less distributed’, a process having the undesirable consequence of making the Bitcoin Lightning Network increasingly fragile towards attacks and failure.”

 

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The Core-Periphery structure of the Bitcoin Lightning Network (BLN).

 

What’s the Current State of Privacy in Cryptocurrency & Smart Contracts?

 

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How mixing services compare. CoinShuffle++ is the most promising in this regard and is being utilised by Decred (DCR) to provide opt-in anonymity.
 

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Comparison of crypto-based techniques for privacy.
 

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Comparison of privacy-preserving smart contracts.

Diversifying with Cryptocurrencies During COVID-19

 

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Correlation of returns for various assets for May 1, 2019 to May 11, 2020.
 

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The neural network map to show co-movements between different assets. A blue line indicates a positive relationship, while a red line indicates a negative relationship. The thickness of the line indicates the strength of the co-movement.

I hope this foray into blockchain research was enlightening. See you next week.

The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

 

Add your vote to the V3 Portfolio (Phase 3) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 2) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 1) by clicking here.

Read the V3 Portfolio guide by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as
possible.

The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

Move Your Mouse Over Charts Below For More Information

The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)

 

Add your vote to the V4 Portfolio by clicking here.

Read about building Crypto Portfolio Diversity by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
 
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
 
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
 
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN
DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
 
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:

 

 

Move Your Mouse Over Charts Below For More Information

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