What To Pay Attention To In September 2022

$20,000 is the critical level. Above that $20,700 is crucial. Only one thing is certain: Bitcoin will be closing in August with a whopper of a red candle.

Now begins September — a famously dire month for markets — and will have to see what waits for us.

Events to Watch

Rate Hikes – Following Powell’s big boy talk from Jackson Hole, one has to assume at least a 50 basis point rate hike in September 20th-21st. If that’s the case, the market will suffer as a result.

Inflation(?) – Additionally, the August CPI report comes out on the 13th of September. However, it appears inflation has peaked:

Midterms. Uncertainty affects markets; investors are uncertain of the policy prior to an election, post-election when the policy is ironed out, investors have a better understanding of the framework and are happier to invest. But, no doubt, it will be a fight. All seats in the representatives are up for grabs, and somewhat more importantly 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. If Republicans gain complete control of the Senate and generally hold crypto in higher esteem than the Democrats, perhaps they force the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) to do something, and the ball gets rolling.

The Macroeconomic Backdrop

Fundamentally, much of the world’s population suffers. War rages in Ukraine, China’s rivers are drying up, and we seem to have no reprieve from threats. The economy is sickly. Inflation is nearly 15% in the U.K., and social unrest is growing. Riots wait in the wings.

When people cannot afford to live, they walk in the streets.

Take the cost of fuel, take the cost of food, and compare it to the average salary.

The ratio will closely determine the possibility of social unrest in that country. Let us not forget the glorious revolution of 1789; he peasants marched because they were hungry, bread shortages sparked the riots, and people only take to their feet when their stomachs remain empty.

After all, “There are only nine missed meals between mankind and anarchy” – Alfred Henry Lewis