
Doc's Daily Commentary and Watchlist

Mind Of Mav
The CPI Giveth and the Fed Taketh Away
The Consumer Price Index was released on Tuesday morning and showed that inflation hitting the consumer had only risen .1% over the past month, showing a potential apogee in inflation. This was good news for all risk markets as they rallied at the potential of seeing – at the very least – a slowing of the interest rate hikes that have crushed risk assets in 2022.
And then Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stepped up to the plate with their latest policy release yesterday. The central bank said it will continue hiking rates through 2023 and projected its fed funds rate to peak at a higher-than-expected 5.1%. With Wednesday’s half a percentage point hike, the targeted range for rates is currently 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.
Despite improvements in growth, spending and production, Powell indicated he remains concerned job gains are too robust and the unemployment rate is too good for the Fed’s fight against inflation.
The problem is that the Bond market is already starting to price in weakness which is being felt by commodities and labor markets.
This morning’s retail sales report also showed markets softening and the consumer buckling under the weight of the new interest rate hikes.
In the short term, I think we’ll have to go through some pain with all risk assets until the markets collapse a little further and the FOMC starts to acknowledge that they went too far, too fast for today’s conditions. Markets have never seen rates being raised into a recession before; history will not judge this period kindly for the Fed.
How this will hit Crypto no one knows; there is the idea that BTC and ETH have seen most of their panic selling done with already through the FTX crisis, so it might hit those assets more gently than others.

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