BTCUSD Pricing in $4500 Move to End of March

On Deribit, the BTCUSD option chain for 31MAR is showing a long straddle price of +/- $4465 points. 

This equates to a one standard deviation movement in price between now and the end of March. In statistics, a standard deviation is a measure of the spread of a dataset, calculated as the square root of its variance. In finance, a standard deviation is often used to measure the volatility of a security or asset’s price.

A one standard deviation move in price refers to a change in the price of a security or asset that is equal to one standard deviation from its mean. For example, if the mean price of a stock is $100 and its standard deviation is $10, a one standard deviation move in price would be a change of $10 in either direction (up or down) from the mean price. In other words, the stock price would be expected to fluctuate within $90 to $110 if it follows a normal distribution.

It’s important to note that standard deviation should not be confused with percentage changes, they are different units of measurement. Also, it’s important to note that this is a statistical concept and it’s not a guarantee of future price movements, it’s just a way to express the volatility of an asset.

Put another way, here is the possibility of where BTCUSD’s price could be within a one standard deviation price movement by 31 March:

We have a very WIDE high volume node from about 19k to 22k, which should provide great support now that the price is above that node, and if the price gets above that minor node at 24k, should be able to easily run up to about 28-29k. 

It would also not surprise me to see the price fall back down into that major node at 20k though. That would not be a bad thing to help coil up energy for the next move.