Bitcoin Breakout Impeded by Overhead Confluence

Bitcoin/USD has survived the recent breakout below $60k support, jumping as high as $66k this morning before coming to a dead stop at a confluence of resistance where “overhead supply” is dominating the auction process.

A “confluence” occurs when you have more than one support or resistance element joining each other at the same price level, making that support or resistance much stronger.

You can see this confluence on the chart where they come together at $66k with the white line (AVWAP from the February lows) and the 50 day simple moving average (red line). Former support becomes new resistance when the price breaks below that support and then re-tests it from below.

Larger timeframe uptrends are still in effect, and this is a necessary pause to allow the monthly timeframe chart to “digest” the gains and adapt to the new, higher “altitude” of >$60k prices for Bitcoin/USD.

I am anticipating this range-bound trading will continue into the summer, and any severe dips due to “bad news” will be fantastic opportunities to pick up inventory at lower prices.

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