Was That a Trump Bump?

Market analysts are grappling with the recent surge in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices following the shocking assassination attempt on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. Leaders from both major U.S. political parties, as well as America’s Western allies, expressed horror and relief on July 13 after the attempt on the former president’s life at a campaign rally.

Bitcoin’s price soared immediately after the shooting, reaching $64,671 by 11:30 pm UTC on July 15, up 5.8% over the previous 24 hours and 14.2% for the week. Other cryptocurrencies mirrored this trend. Bitcoin’s price peaked around $65,000 before settling at $64,335.

Austin Campbell, founder and managing partner at Zero Knowledge Consulting, noted that historically, assassination attempts can lead to increased support for the targeted candidate. After the shots were fired at approximately 6:11 pm local time on July 12, Trump emerged from the chaos “defiant,” which was captured in a notable photograph. Campbell explained that this display of strength likely boosted Trump’s chances of regaining the presidency, which the market perceived as favorable for Bitcoin, given Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Such attempts on the lives of U.S. presidents are rare, with the last incident occurring in 1981 when Ronald Reagan was targeted. These events are violent disruptions to the political landscape and can cause market volatility.

David Tawil, co-founder and president of ProChain Capital, expressed his belief that Bitcoin is seen as a safe-haven asset during crises. However, he also suggested that the primary reason for Bitcoin’s surge was the increased likelihood of Trump’s election victory, which is viewed as bullish for crypto. Tawil and others in the crypto sector anticipate regulatory changes that would be more favorable under a Trump administration, potentially leading to a strong rally in crypto prices leading up to the election on November 5.

Winston Ma, co-founder of Dragon AI and adjunct professor at New York University, agreed that the upswing is better explained by U.S. election dynamics rather than global uncertainty. The crypto community associates Trump and the Republican Party with more business-friendly crypto regulations.

Trump has branded himself as the “crypto president,” accepting cryptocurrency payments for his campaign—a first for a major U.S. political party. He is also scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville later this month. Overseas perspectives, such as those from Hong Kong-based Justin d’Anethan of Keyrock, also link the rise in Bitcoin’s price to the failed assassination attempt, noting the immediate increase in Trump’s election odds.

At the political betting site PredictIt, contracts for a Trump victory traded at $0.70 on July 16, up from $0.60 on July 12, while contracts for Biden were at $0.26.

Shares of gun and ammunition companies like Smith & Wesson Brands, as well as crypto firms like Coinbase and Marathon Digital, also surged following the assassination attempt. Trump Media and Technology Group, majority-owned by Trump, saw a 30% increase.

Vitali Dervoed, co-founder and CEO of Spark, remarked on the market’s shock from the “black swan event” and the potential impact of losing Trump as a presidential candidate, which would be disastrous for parts of the crypto community.

In summary, while the assassination attempt was a significant and rare event, it appears to have reinforced the perception of Trump as a strong, pro-crypto candidate, thereby influencing market dynamics and driving up Bitcoin prices.