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May 23, 2018Watch this video to see how to use this newsletter. Click the square in the lower right to expand the view.
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Crypto Market Commentary
Market Continues Sharp Drop
25 Billion Sell-Off
The market is certainly angry right now.
May until a week ago was looking like a consolidation and small pullback from the bullish action we saw in April. What began as a small pullback turned into a full-blown storm this week with nearly all of the large caps showing double-digit losses on the 7-day chart.
So what’s causing this to happen?
According to an article on CCN it’s due to the “Bitfinex taxation policy, scandal of South Korea’s two largest cryptocurrency exchanges UPbit and Bithumb, and the initial sell-off of the Mt. Gox trustee’s bitcoin funds.”
But we think it’s much simpler than that. People simply aren’t entering crypto, and they haven’t been since January. Couple this with fears about regulation that we discussed yesterday and you have a perfect storm.
As we often like to say during days like today, nothing fundamentally has changed. While some of the news has been eyebrow-raising of late, it should have no far-reaching implications for the legitimate actors in the space. 2018 is shaping up to be a big year for crypto, but not in the ways we initially suspected. This is the year that defines crypto’s role to come, but unfortunately, as the market and technology become more stratified it becomes harder to perceive that direction.
When the market was defined solely by Bitcoin, it was easy to see the direction the wind was blowing, but 2017 changed that in a big way. Suddenly we went from one dominate voice to many different voices. The cacophony is somewhat hard to sift through, and the significance of a diversified market is lost on many outside the space.
But make no mistake, the frustrations and stagnation that you might feel today will be worth the toil.
Defining a new asset class that lives outside normal conventions is not done overnight, nor do we want it to be. We want regulators to get it right the first time, and regulators want to fight crime without stifling innovation. It’s a very tough balance to achieve and the best we can do is continue to explore the possibilities of the technology.
I met with the team of Nano last week in NYC and specifically spoke to their development lead, Colin LeMahieu. While he was certainly aware of what the market was doing, what was more important to him, and every developer I talked to that night, is finding how far this new technology can do and how we can change the world for the better with it.
After all, that’s truly the purpose here. Yes, we’re speculative investors and there is a profit motivation, but if you ever get a chance to talk to other crypto investors the ubiquitous rhetoric is not about price but about purpose.
So the point here is that what we’re feeling right now is temporary, and when everyone else is jumping ship you can be looking for opportunities. We have been bouncing between Bitcoin at $6,000 and $10,000 for nearly 6 months now and as the range tightens, the probability of a breakout is growing.
Echoing that, Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee is predicting that Bitcoin will reach $25,000, and while we normally ignore price predictions, he makes three salient points about why that will come to pass.
First, he points to BTC production and replication costs. As it stands, the price of production, or mining BTC, is almost equal to the trading price. In order to incentivize more miners, the price needs to go up to make mining viable.
Second, institutional investors haven’t fully entered the industry due to regulatory uncertainties.
He said:
“I think institutional investors have gained a lot of interest, and they haven’t really come into crypto yet because there is still some regulatory uncertainty. But that sort of ultimate allocation into crypto as an asset class is going to be a powerful reason why Bitcoin rallies.”
Third, data compiled by Fundstrat shows a historical trend, saying:
“Historically, 10 days comprise all the performance in any single year of Bitcoin’s price. If you just took out those 10 days, Bitcoin’s down 25 percent a year. So as miserable as it feels holding Bitcoin at $8,000, the move from $8,000 to $25,000 will happen in a handful of days.”
Again, anyone can make predictions, but Lee’s logic follows a lot of what we’ve been saying. We won’t declare that a bull run is imminent, but it’s clear to us that the price is being suppressed.
Another event sending shockwaves throughout the market today has been a series of network hacks for large cryptocurrencies. Both Bitcoin Gold as well as Verge, who are both in the top 35 by market cap, suffered 51% attacks that allowed the perpetrators to steal millions in these cryptos.
To execute the attack, the nefarious actor had at least 51% of the network’s total hashpower, giving them temporary control of the respective blockchains. To control this much hashpower is very expensive in terms of the hardware and electricity needed, but the cost can be offset by the attack.
All told, the attackers made off with an estimated $18.6 million in Bitcoin Gold and mined an estimated $1.75 million in Verge.
This highlights some of the issues inherent with Proof Of Work (PoW) consensus, otherwise known as mining, and why much of the crypto community has been shifting away from it towards other algorithms such as Proof Of Stake (PoS) and Delegated Proof Of Stake (DPoS).
Last for today, Coinbase announced that it took another step toward trading Ethereum ERC20 tokens by acquiring exchange Paradex.
Paradex is a decentralized exchange (DEX), meaning no third party is involved in holding the funds. This is in comparison to a centralized exchange like Coinbase or Binance, although both clearly have intentions to have decentralized options. Paradex is built on top of the 0x protocol, which had a very impressive day as it was seen as confirmation that 0x will trade on Coinbase soon.
So what is the implication here other than Coinbase is continuing to grow more powerful? Well, because U.S. regulators are trying to figure out how to define legislation for cryptocurrencies, many exchanges have been holding back from listing ICO tokens.
In March of this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a clear warning to crypto exchanges that some ICO tokens may qualify as non-compliant securities as they fail the Howey Test, and any exchange that lists security tokens needs to either register as a national securities exchange, or use an exemption by setting itself up as an alternative trading system (ATS).
So as we learned earlier this week Coinbase reportedly entered into talks with the SEC in April in order to become an ATS. Coinbase already had announced in March that it was adding support for ERC20 tokens, and now we can finally start connecting the dots as to where that is going.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated in today’s announcement that Coinbase will only offer Paradex to customers outside the U.S., and move to U.S. customers as regulatory uncertainties become more clear.
Talk to you tomorrow.
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Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- Entered ELEC position
- Entered IAM position
- Entered ZIL position
- Entered FT position
- Entered DATA position
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
- None.
Current Portfolio
Desired Holdings
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.
Tier 4
ZIL
IAM
FT
DATA
ELEC
None.
Tier 2
MOD
Tier 3
REQ
SUB
LINK
NANO
KNC
Tier 4
BNTY
TAU
WISH
PHR
LOCI
XBY
ELA
ECC
POE
HPB
BIX
EVE
XVG
NULS
DNA
Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.
NEO
NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:
- An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
- A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
- SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
- Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.
NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.
WaltonChain
WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:
- A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
- They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.
Ethereum
Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.
OmiseGO
OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.
NAVCoin
NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:
- The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.
- The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.
Ripple
Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.
- Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
- National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
- XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.
ICON
Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows
- Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
- Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
- Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.
Fundamental Currency Research
Fantom
For flipping Good.
For long-term holding Neutral.
What is it?
Blockchain technology has provided a way to maintain consensus across all nodes with no central authority. However the technology faces fundamental issues like a lack of real-time transaction settlement and scalability. Despite improved consensus algorithms, current blockchain implementations use nodes that synchronize one block at a time. This results in slow confirmation times, one of the biggest factors stopping blockchain technology from being widely used across many industries. Although third-generation Smart Contract platforms such as Cardano and EOS have emerged, scalability issues have not been resolved. To address these persistent issues, a new model based on the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) was developed. Newer platforms such as IOTA, Byteball, Nano, and Hashgraph improve on current blockchain scalability. This new technology does guarantee real-time transactions because nodes process transactions asynchronously, while ensuring infinite scalability and potentially achieving hundreds of thousands of transactions per second as more nodes participate in the network. However, these platforms lack the Smart Contract dApp infrastructure provided by platforms like Ethereum. FANTOM is the world’s first DAG based Smart Contract platform that solves the scalability issues of existing public distributed ledger technologies. The platform distinguishes itself from the traditional block ledger-based storage infrastructure by employing an improved version of existing DAG-based protocols. The FANTOM platform adopts a new protocol known as the “Lachesis Protocol” to maintain consensus. Applications built on top of the FANTOM OPERA Chain enjoy instant transactions and near zero transaction costs for all users. The mission of FANTOM is to provide compatibility between all transaction bodies around the world, and create an ecosystem which allows real-time transactions and data sharing with low cost. 
What is our verdict?
What we like: If they are able to achieve a smart contract system on a scalable DAG platform the potential is tremendous.
What we don’t like: The mainnet launch currently scheduled for 2019 Q3, a year away from the ICO. DAG technology is still largely unproven and competitive.
Website: https://www.fantom.foundation
Whitepaper: https://www.fantom.foundation/data/FANTOM%20Whitepaper%20English%20v1.1.pdf
Wednesday 5/23
We made a number of acquisitions today in response to a perceived market drop. Zilliqa: The practical byzantine fault tolerance algorithm (PBFT), which is used to establish consensus in blockchain systems, is only one of those potential solutions. Three examples of blockchains that rely on the PBFT for conses are Hyperledger, Stellar, and Ripple. Zilliqa will likely be the first blockchain with live on-chain transaction sharding, which gives them a high, near linearly increasing, throughput: 2488 tx/s in their internal testnet. Additionally, Zilliqa uses the smart contract language “Scilla”, which is similar to Solidity, but safer, e.g. things like the parity hack would’ve been prevented when using Scilla. Is it Ethereum with already implemented sharding? Like Ethereum, it is a blockchain on which you can run smart contracts. However, it is designed in such a way, that it is linearly scalable with the number of nodes of the network. I. e., the more Zilliqa nodes there are, the faster the blockchain gets. With the number of nodes Ethereum has at the moment Zilliqa would be able to process 15 000 tx/s! In the long-run they will focus on blockchain interoperability and privacy as well. The project that can break through VISA’s 24,000 TPS limit will certainly draw a lot of attention inside and outside of the crypto community. Are they near that objective or is it still theoritical? They are near their objective. As mentioned previously they had already 2488 tx/s in their internal testnet. This month the public testnet will be launched. The mainnet is due in Q3 of this year Streamr: From Coindesk: Blockchain data platform Streamr is partnering with Finnish telecom giant Nokia and California software company OSIsoft to allow mobile customers to monetize their user data and make purchases. Chief executive Henri Pihkala announced the partnerships at CoinDesk’s Consensus 2018 conference Wednesday, while also conducting a live launch of its real-time data marketplace, through which users can provide and subscribe to real-time data streams. He said in a statement that “today marks a hugely significant day in Streamr’s history, not only showcasing our platform to the world on-stage at Consensus but announcing two stellar partnerships.” The partnership with Nokia will see Nokia’s Kuha base stations integrate with Streamr’s data marketplace, allowing Nokia customers to both monetize their user data and purchase streams from Internet of Things devices. “We recognize a growing movement of empowered mobile customers who want to control and monetize their own data,” Nokia’s radio system evolution lead Martti Ylikoski, said in a statement, adding, “our partnership with Streamr reflects our firm belief in the platform.” Participants buy and sell real-time data streams through ethereum smart contracts. Buyers and sellers use an ERC-20 token called DATAcoin. The partnership with OSIsoft will see the firm’s enterprise customers gain the ability to earn money for their operations data. Ealier in May, Streamr announced another partnership, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise, to use the Streamr Engine – a data aggregator and analytics tool – to collect data feeds from an Audi Q2″ Bridge Protocol: Bridge interfaces with NEO framework and allows users to manage, protect and utilize sensitive information in new ways. The Protocol offers a new standard for whitelists and allows participation in multiple ICOs. Bridge Certificates build trust so users can transact with confidence. Digital identity is a big part of why NEO will succeed in China, and Bridge or the THEKEY are potentially a big piece of that. Fabric Token: The Fabric Token (FT) ecosystem aims to empower individuals and businesses with easy access to blockchain technology and smart contracts by providing a bundle of user-friendly software. The products within the FT ecosystem will focus primarily on helping people of any background to create and deploy their decentralized application (DApp), without the specialized computer programming knowledge that they would usually need.
Tuesday 5/22
We exited our position in ELEC after we hit our stop loss. This was always a risky position as the Power Blockchain space is competitive and has a lot to prove over existing systems. We’ll consider re-entering this position as it continues to fall.
Tuesday 5/15
Norway-based registrar organization DNV GL has invested in blockchain startup VeChain. VeChain CEO Sunny Lu told CoinDesk that the companies would continue their partnership. 
“We are able to provide with VeChain a solution that balances safety and [speed],” Luca Crisciotti, chief executive of DNV, explained, adding: “Our mission is the ability to make sure that product is reaching the shelves, that it’s ultimately reaching the consumer … What we are providing to our customers is commitment.” Meanwhile, ICON also had a large partnership announcement today.
“Unchain will create a blockchain ecosystem fueled by a token economy, where the users are rewarded for their contributions to the network. DApp services discovered through ICON and Unblock, a subsidiary of LINE dedicated to blockchain research and to accelerate DApp projects, will be integrated with Unchain. This joint venture takes blockchain and decentralization another step closer to being a part of our everyday lives.” We found the following video to be a great summary of where we are with Blockchain today:
Monday 5/14
The Ontology Foundation and the NEO Foundation signed a memorandum of understanding on May 14th, 2018, concerning strategy and technology integration:
Whereas: Ontology is a distributed trust network that focuses on digital identity, data exchange and other trust collaboration scenarios. NEO is dedicated to realizing a distributed network that serves the smart economy. Both Ontology and NEO share a common technical understanding and vision, and both wish to promote blockchain technology and its applications.
Purpose: Ontology and NEO together provide compliance-ready, regulatable protocols to global developers. These protocols are supported by NeoVM with exceptional finality and a smart contract system with a robust and stable infrastructure-level network.
As such, the Ontology Foundation and the NEO Foundation have agreed to cooperate as follows:
Key Cooperation Areas
1. Ontology will provide digital identity, data exchange services and other customized services. NEO brings a mature and complete smart contract platform as well as distributed network infrastructure services to the table.
2. Smart Contracts: Ontology and NEO will work together to build a smart contract ecosystem, fully support the development and adoption of NeoVM and NeoContract, and collaborate on developing smart contract open standards.
3. Data Integration: Both parties will provide standardized technology interfaces (APIs, SDKs, etc.), and share and communicate development achievements and research results.
4. Cross-chain: Both parties will push forward with cross-chain research, with the eventual goal of producing integrable mainnets.
… We see this as an extremely promising step forward for both projects, and for the larger NEP5 ecosystem. The system of cooperation is one way this space moves forward, and we see NEO’s smart economy as a big part of that.
Technical Analysis Research
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
- ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
Public Swing Portfolio Link
I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class last week; if not, the replay is available here. If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.
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