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August 6, 2018

 

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Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

 

Bitcoin Falls Under $7,000 

Goldman Sachs And NYSE Drop Huge News

 

The market continued its downward march as Bitcoin once again fell under $7,000.

Despite a painful market, we still saw several interesting and exciting developments today.

 

Perhaps the most compelling involved Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks. We already knew they would be offering OTC services to customers, and launched Bitcoin Futures earlier this year. Additionally, their new CEO is particularly keen on cryptocurrency.

 

So it was little surprise that they were revealed to be devising a cryptocurrency custody service. It seems they didn’t want to be outdone by the NYSE’s recent announcement of crypto custodial services through their platform Bakkt.

 

The offering would open Goldman Sachs custodial services to multiple cryptocurrency funds, providing them an institutional-backed avenue through which to manage their assets. Of course, this would outfit the funds with security, insurance, and other investment measures that help to give peace of mind and security to large players who don’t want to have to manage private keys or wallets.

 

This is certainly not the first custodial offering we’ve seen, as we mentioned the NYSE will be offering similar services and Coinbase’s custodial program went live earlier this year. Still, this is an indicator that there is legitimate demand for these services, and that the demand is rising.

After all, one of the biggest criticisms the SEC raised in the recent rejection of the Winklevoss ETF was that there wasn’t adequate services to meet the demand.

 

Furthermore, as we’ve pointed out before with Coinbase, custodial services are not limited to just Goldman’s clients. They could extend their services to other banks who would then sell secured and insured cryptocurrency investment to their customers.

 

If the services gain popularity and use, they may even encourage skeptical or unenthused investors to get into the game. Still, as we mentioned, they’re in the conceptualization of these services.

 

“In response to client interest in various digital products we are exploring how best to serve them in this space,” a Goldman Sachs spokesperson commented on the matter. “At this point, we have not reached a conclusion on the scope of our digital asset offering.”

 

It is exciting to see one of the largest banks in the world openly talking about their digital asset offerings, even if they are just exploring it currently. Not to be outdone, Intercontinental Exchange, the trading titan that owns the New York Stock Exchange and other global marketplaces, added on to their announcement of their new crypto trading platform, Bakkt.

Once custodial services and Bitcoin futures are added, they plan to allow investors to add Bitcoin to their 401(k), a popular retirement vehicle that has historically been excluded from cryptocurrency investment. The next step after that could be using Bitcoin to replace your credit card.

“Bakkt is designed to serve as a scalable on-ramp for institutional, merchant, and consumer participation in digital assets by promoting greater efficiency, security, and utility,” said Kelly Loeffler, ICE’s head of digital assets, who will serve as CEO of Bakkt, in the press release announcing the launch. “We are collaborating to build an open platform that helps unlock the transformative potential of digital assets across global markets and commerce.”

Moving into the 401(k) and IRA market for cryptocurrency would be a massive win for Bakkt. But their ambition doesn’t stop there: They want to use Bitcoin to streamline and disrupt the world of retail payments by transitioning consumers from swiping credit cards to scanning their Bitcoin apps. The market opportunity is colossal: Consumers worldwide are paying lofty credit card or online-shopping fees on $25 trillion a year in annual retail purchases.

 

Bakkt is the brainchild of Jeff Sprecher, the founder, chairman, and CEO of ICE, whose expertise is modernizing the world’s exchanges in recent years from pits into super-efficient electronic marketplaces.

 

Any way you shake it, it’s an extremely exciting venture to see forming around cryptocurrency, and should give investors hope that more volume is coming.

 

Meanwhile, on the regulatory front, the SEC is boosting its scrutiny of brokerages that deal in cryptocurrencies. Brokerages have been recently riddled with questions from SEC examiners about their business practices and how they deal with clients. The examiners seem to be seeking specific information about fees generated from trading, brokerage financing, and ICOs.

 

The review, being led by the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations, follows recent requests to hedge funds about how they price digital investments.

 

It seems they’re trying to understand the whole ecosystem, and trying to determine how to make this a more efficient and organized marketplace. After all, their inquiries have only been targeted towards smaller brokerage firms that deal with digital currencies. No Wall Street banks currently trade cryptocurrencies, which is what they’re liking preparing for.

 

They want to better understand how things operate at the small scale so that when it’s time for the big players to enter the space, they’re better prepared to adapt and enforce marketplace restrictions.

 

Overall, we want the SEC to be as participatory as possible. The last thing we want is for them to make a knee-jerk reaction that will hurt crypto for years to come. We want them to take their time, evaluate the circumstances, and enact proper regulatory procedures that work with crypto and not against it.

 

We think that’s how they plan to operate, and if it takes until 2019 or 2020 for them to open the floodgates with an ETF and other regulatory approvals, it will be worth the wait as it will positively affect crypto for many years to come.

 

It may be tough to wait for such an uncertain date, but you’ll be glad you were in before and not after like the majority of investors.

 

If you were not able to join us for the recent webinar “Ten Steps to Building Your Portfolio” webinar, the replay is available here.

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and episode eight is now available. Episode Eight is an interview with Andrei Polgar, the author of the book “Age of Anomaly” which speaks to anticipating negative market events. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!

See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

 

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None today.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="72847"]
How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Technical Analysis Research

This weekend discussed the current state of the top ten and introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry. In today’s video I further discussed how I will be adding these positions.

 

.   I will be diving much deeper into the various derivatives that will enable much more fluid and nimble trading to those of you with an interest to do so. The challenge continues to be what exchanges that you can use depending on where you live, which of course will be a fluid situation.

 

 

 

Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

 

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

 

Tolar

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: The prototype has an insane 130,000 TPS

What we don’t like: TPS expected to drop as more nodes join the network. Team’s business strategy relies on collaboration with other companies.

  • Project name: Tolar
  • Token symbol: TOL
  • Website: https://www.tolar.io
  • White paper: https://www.tolar.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tolar-whitepaper-1.pdf
  • Hard cap: 45,000 ETH (token sale contributors will own 35% of the total token supply)
  • Conversion rate: ICO price and presale price for 1-9 ETH = 0,000145055 ETH per TOL
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $54 million based on current ether price of $420
  • Bonus structure: For presale, contributions of > 50 ETH = 20% bonus; between 10-49 ETH = 10% bonus. 3-month lock up for bonus tokens.
  • Private sale / white list: Presale in progress until the end of August 2018. Presale and whitelist registrations are currently open at https://tolar.io/presale.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: USA, China
  • Timeline: Currently planned for September 15-20, 2018 (14:00 GMT). The ICO may end earlier if hard cap is reached (please visit Tolar’s official website and join their Telegram channel for the most up-to-date information on their upcoming token sale)
  • Token distribution date: Q3 2018

Website: https://www.tolar.io

Whitepaper: https://www.tolar.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tolar-whitepaper-1.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

 

 

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