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August 7, 2018

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Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

 

Market Experiences Flash Crash

Bitcoin ETF Decision Delayed

 

The market nearly set a new yearly low today as we bounced off the 240 Billion level.

Bitcoin once again fared better than most, only losing 2.5%, but it was a clearly a market flash crash in the later hours of the day that sold off 15 Billion in a matter of hours.

 

So what’s going on?

 

As we thought, the SEC has delayed the decision on the CBOE backed VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF which is seen by many as the best hope for a approved exchange traded fund.

 

As the agency wrote:

 

“Accordingly, the Commission … designates September 30, 2018, as the date by which the Commission shall either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove, the proposed rule change.”

Read the full notice here: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-83792.pdf

 

The proposed rule change from CBOE would, if approved, constitute a very important juncture for crypto. It would clear the way for the listing of a Bitcoin ETF, and would certainly enable the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF to be the first to market.

 

They submitted their proposal back in June, setting off a busy comment period that saw the crypto community rally in support. While today’s decision certainly pushes back against anyone who believed that the Bitcoin ETF was inevitable, this is not the end.

 

This comes after a presentation to the SEC by startup SolidX in late July was recently revealed.

 

The presentation argued that the approved commodity-trust exchange-traded products (ETPs) all have been “well-established, significant, regulated markets” for trading futures on the underlying commodity such as gold and silver.

 

With that being said, the presentation made it clear that “significant changes” in Bitcoin and its market structure have been made in the past few years. For example, multiple derivatives markets are now available for Bitcoin such as CME & CBOE Bitcoin futures.

 

Canaccord, the biggest investment firm in Canada, has said that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF is highly unlikely in 2018:

 

“And although the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust, seen by many as the most formidable candidate for a potential approval, is due for a potential decision as early as this month, it is largely believed that the SEC will extend its deadline, in which case a decision may not be made until March 2019. Meanwhile, we note that other bitcoin-based securities (e.g., Bitcoin Tracker One) have been available for trading on regulated exchanges as early as May 2015 in Sweden, while north of the border, Canada is working towards its own bitcoin ETF product, the Evolve Bitcoin ETF.”

 

This is a sentiment that starting to spread amongst the crypto community. After all, the reasons the SEC gave for denying the Winklevoss ETF, namely market manipulation and volatility, will not go away overnight.  

 

However, Canaccord emphasized that due to the history of VanEck and CBOE in dealing with regulated U.S. markets and the U.S. SEC, their Bitcoin ETF are the most likely to be approved by the SEC.

 

The proposed ETFs have full insurance, guaranteed secure storage for investors, and most importantly, do not depend on a single crypto exchange for valuation, which is one of the primary reasons that the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF was rejected.

I think this should be your takeaway from today’s events: Crypto is growing up, and simply because we have to wait longer for an ETF does not mean that we aren’t moving forward.

 

This year especially big companies in the cryptocurrency sector, including Coinbase and Ledger, have focused on developing a suite of institutional products to enable large-scale institutional investors in entering the cryptocurrency market.

 

Just today Coinbase announced that they would be enabling instant deposits, so funds are immediately in your account instead of having to wait a week.

The custodial services offered by an increasing number of companies is what is going to continue to attract institutional players to the space. Today’s decision does nothing to take away from the recent announcement of the Bakkt platform and how it will help to open up the crypto market for large funds.

“The arrival of a potential bitcoin ETF remains top of mind for institutional investors seeking exposure to this emerging asset class, and there are now multiple applications pending approval by the SEC, most notably that proposed by Van Eck/SolidX. In addition, institutional custody continues to make progress, as Ledger announced a partnership with Nomura and Global Advisors during the Consensus conference in May and Coinbase launched its institutional custody product in early July,” Canaccord researchers added.

As I’ve said before, it is imperative that we focus on the underlying technology and developing the market structure instead of getting hung up on the details of this ETF.

The ETF is only a piece of the larger whole we aim to build. There are exciting days ahead for those who can hold through days in the market like today.

If you were not able to join us for the recent webinar “Ten Steps to Building Your Portfolio” webinar, the replay is available here.

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and episode eight is now available. Episode Eight is an interview with Andrei Polgar, the author of the book “Age of Anomaly” which speaks to anticipating negative market events. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!

See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

Our Weekly Livestream

Our next Premium-Only Livestream is scheduled for 8/8/2018 at 8 PM EDT (UTC/GMT -4 hours)

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None today.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="72847"]
How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Technical Analysis Research

This past weekend we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry. In today’s video discussed my thoughts on adding ETH/USD and why I’m going to see if the support level at $380 holds.

 

.   I will be diving much deeper into the various derivatives that will enable much more fluid and nimble trading to those of you with an interest to do so. The challenge continues to be what exchanges that you can use depending on where you live, which of course will be a fluid situation.

 

 

 

Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

 

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.

I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:  

Tolar

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: The prototype has an insane 130,000 TPS

What we don’t like: TPS expected to drop as more nodes join the network. Team’s business strategy relies on collaboration with other companies.

  • Project name: Tolar
  • Token symbol: TOL
  • Website: https://www.tolar.io
  • White paper: https://www.tolar.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tolar-whitepaper-1.pdf
  • Hard cap: 45,000 ETH (token sale contributors will own 35% of the total token supply)
  • Conversion rate: ICO price and presale price for 1-9 ETH = 0,000145055 ETH per TOL
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $54 million based on current ether price of $420
  • Bonus structure: For presale, contributions of > 50 ETH = 20% bonus; between 10-49 ETH = 10% bonus. 3-month lock up for bonus tokens.
  • Private sale / white list: Presale in progress until the end of August 2018. Presale and whitelist registrations are currently open at https://tolar.io/presale.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: USA, China
  • Timeline: Currently planned for September 15-20, 2018 (14:00 GMT). The ICO may end earlier if hard cap is reached (please visit Tolar’s official website and join their Telegram channel for the most up-to-date information on their upcoming token sale)
  • Token distribution date: Q3 2018

Website: https://www.tolar.io

Whitepaper: https://www.tolar.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tolar-whitepaper-1.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

 

 

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