Premium Daily Crypto Newsletter

August 9, 2018

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Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

 

Markets Find Their Footing

Any Port In The Storm

 

Today the market took a step back from the ledge and recovered 10 Billion.

Despite this, we’re still down 30 Billion for the week.

Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead today said that crypto markets have recently witnessed something of an overreaction from investors in response to short-term news, such as the SEC’s Bitcoin ETF delay.

 

As we talked about yesterday, we expect more volatility in the later part of August and certainly in September following more news about ETF delays and denials.

 

In response to further exchanges listing ETC and Bittrex adding USD/ETC and USD/XRP pairs, we’ll be rebalancing our new portfolio in anticipation of some more positive movement.

 

In an announcement, Bittrex stated:

 

“We will continue to use a phased approach for USD trading. We are taking our time and ramping up these markets, processes and systems through a measured approach before we open it up to all qualified customers. But, the good news is that you didn’t have to wait a long time for more opportunities. As of August 20, participants will have access to USD markets for BTC, ETH, USDT, TUSD, ETC and XRP.”

They added:

“Today’s announcement is another exciting step toward further adoption of blockchain technology, which is truly revolutionary. In addition to broader acceptance, expanding fiat markets to the top digital currencies on our trading platform will help limit the dominance and influence of any one token over other blockchain projects – a necessary evolution if we’re going to unleash blockchain’s potential benefits for consumers and businesses.”

 

It’s good to see the market diversifying away from BTC and USDT as base pairs and using other major cryptocurrencies to fulfill that role, along with the actual USD.

 

We also saw a glimpse of the future of exchanges today with Binance teasing their new Decentralized Exchange.

Decentralized exchanges are considered more secure than their centralized counterparts, and are less vulnerable to systemwide hacks. Instead of storing all the crypto on an exchange in a giant “honeypot”, decentralized exchange users retain control of their private keys and thus their crypto in siloed wallets.

 

Even still, Binance has proven that they’re very much profit motivated. It costs 2.5 Million USD to list a coin on their exchange.

Perhaps this is meant to keep out bad projects, but in practice bad projects have still made their way onto Binance in the past with all their blessings, so clearly the system is fallible.

 

It’s simply a hard time to start a project right now.

 

Over half of all initial coin offering (ICO) projects failed to complete their crowdfunding in the second quarter of 2018, revealed cryptocurrency data firm ICORating in its latest report.

ICOs Raised a Record $8.3 Billion in Q2, But Most Missed Their Targets
The independent ICO analysis portal found that 55% of the ICOs failed in Q2 2018. That is 5% more than the number of failed ICO projects recorded in Q1 2018. Nevertheless, money continued to flow in the ICO projects as a whole, raising from $3.3 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to $8.3 billion in the second — amounting to a 60% surge in investments.

What this shows us is that the market is becoming a more sterile environment, but we still have a long way to go before it resembles something like the stock market.

 

Even still, that shouldn’t be our focus. We need to champion the good projects while ignoring the bad. The projects that can survive this storm will be worth keeping around long term, and as crypto has a very long horizon, this is paramount.

If you were not able to join us for the recent webinar “Ten Steps to Building Your Portfolio” webinar, the replay is available here.

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and episode eight is now available. Episode Eight is an interview with Andrei Polgar, the author of the book “Age of Anomaly” which speaks to anticipating negative market events. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!

See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

Our Weekly Livestream

Our next Premium-Only Livestream is scheduled for 8/8/2018 at 8 PM EDT (UTC/GMT -4 hours)

New to Cryptocurrencies? Check out our archived classes “Intro to Cryptocurrency Trading”, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency: Intro to Fundamental Analysis,” Mav’s  class on “Security and Wallets” and Doc’s classes, “Introduction to Technical Analysis” and “Short Term Trading Strategies” which are now all available for immediate purchase in our Store, and seconds away from viewing in the Premium Member’s Home. View more about them at our online store by CLICKING HERE.

 

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Check out our new merch store! Simply go into the regular store and select “Merchandise” to pick up some RSC merch!

 

Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • Per Doc’s video today he is adding 2% positions to both ETH/USD and LTC/USD.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="72847"]
How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Technical Analysis Research

This past weekend we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry. In today’s video I discuss my reasoning as to why I want to add ETH/USD and LTC/USD positions with 2% of my desired account size. .   .             Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:  

Tolar

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: The prototype has an insane 130,000 TPS

What we don’t like: TPS expected to drop as more nodes join the network. Team’s business strategy relies on collaboration with other companies.

  • Project name: Tolar
  • Token symbol: TOL
  • Website: https://www.tolar.io
  • White paper: https://www.tolar.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tolar-whitepaper-1.pdf
  • Hard cap: 45,000 ETH (token sale contributors will own 35% of the total token supply)
  • Conversion rate: ICO price and presale price for 1-9 ETH = 0,000145055 ETH per TOL
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $54 million based on current ether price of $420
  • Bonus structure: For presale, contributions of > 50 ETH = 20% bonus; between 10-49 ETH = 10% bonus. 3-month lock up for bonus tokens.
  • Private sale / white list: Presale in progress until the end of August 2018. Presale and whitelist registrations are currently open at https://tolar.io/presale.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: USA, China
  • Timeline: Currently planned for September 15-20, 2018 (14:00 GMT). The ICO may end earlier if hard cap is reached (please visit Tolar’s official website and join their Telegram channel for the most up-to-date information on their upcoming token sale)
  • Token distribution date: Q3 2018

Website: https://www.tolar.io

Whitepaper: https://www.tolar.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tolar-whitepaper-1.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

 

 

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