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August 12, 2018

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Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

 

Week In Review

The FUD Strikes Back

 

In a dramatic series of events, the cryptocurrency market has dropped nearly 100 Billion since the start of August, clearly establishing a new yearly low at 214 Billion. Bitcoin fared better than most large caps, and it still lost nearly $1000 from its market price.

As this week’s losses totalled 43 Billion, we clearly felt it more this week over the previous one. The flash crashes this week sent the market into a state of panic not often seen.

 

It’s no secret this was mostly in response to the announcement by the SEC that the VanEck / SolidX Bitcoin ETF decision would be delayed until September 30th.

 

While we’ve covered how this was likely to be the case and how there will likely be more delays, it shows us once again how immature and susceptible to manipulation this market is.

 

Just like in life, focusing with absolution on one single while ignoring everything else is a recipe for disaster, and it is no different in cryptocurrency. The market was so completely focused on seeing the ETF approved in August that it forgot to pay attention to the multitude of other exciting and important aspects of this space.

 

After all, the ETF is only applicable to the US, and only applied to Bitcoin, but because of the massive forces at work here it has quickly become the weathervane of institutional investment and regulatory acceptance.

For those of you who are sick of hearing about the ETF, especially after this week, I hear you.

 

As I’ve said, it’s much more important to see innovation take precedence and disruption stay the focus.

 

News stories such as Goldman Sachs planning to offer its clients custody for cryptocurrency funds and the creation of the NYSE-backed cryptocurrency platform Bakkt continues to give us hope that while the price may not show it, we are moving forward in meaningful ways.

 

Even if the excitement seems to follow price, and not the other way around, crypto is still one of the most innovative spaces in technology.

Ultimately where this space is going, what this technology will actually be used for, and what the viability of today’s investment will be tomorrow is still anyone’s guess, but isn’t that more exciting to talk about than what the market decides to panic about?

Mav is currently on the road and will be unable to produce any commentary videos until his return mid-week.

If you were not able to join us for the recent webinar “Ten Steps to Building Your Portfolio” webinar, the replay is available here.

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and episode eight is now available. Episode Eight is an interview with Andrei Polgar, the author of the book “Age of Anomaly” which speaks to anticipating negative market events. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!

See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

Our Weekly Livestream

Our next Premium-Only Livestream is scheduled for 8/15/2018 at 8 PM EDT (UTC/GMT -4 hours). Invite & link to follow.

New to Cryptocurrencies? Check out our archived classes “Intro to Cryptocurrency Trading”, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency: Intro to Fundamental Analysis,” Mav’s  class on “Security and Wallets” and Doc’s classes, “Introduction to Technical Analysis” and “Short Term Trading Strategies” which are now all available for immediate purchase in our Store, and seconds away from viewing in the Premium Member’s Home. View more about them at our online store by CLICKING HERE.

 

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Check out our new merch store! Simply go into the regular store and select “Merchandise” to pick up some RSC merch!

 

Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None today.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="72847"]

How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab

  • ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14. (12% more to add)
  • LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56.  (6% more to add)
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Technical Analysis Research

This past weekend we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry.

 

In today’s video I discuss the current state of the market, how XMR might be the next addition, and where the various levels of support lie in today’s large-caps. There is no rush to get in while we’re cost-averaging down during a bear. Patience is key.    

Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

 

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:  

 

Tolar

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: The prototype has an insane 130,000 TPS

What we don’t like: TPS expected to drop as more nodes join the network. Team’s business strategy relies on collaboration with other companies.

  • Project name: Tolar
  • Token symbol: TOL
  • Website: https://www.tolar.io
  • White paper: https://www.tolar.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tolar-whitepaper-1.pdf
  • Hard cap: 45,000 ETH (token sale contributors will own 35% of the total token supply)
  • Conversion rate: ICO price and presale price for 1-9 ETH = 0,000145055 ETH per TOL
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $54 million based on current ether price of $420
  • Bonus structure: For presale, contributions of > 50 ETH = 20% bonus; between 10-49 ETH = 10% bonus. 3-month lock up for bonus tokens.
  • Private sale / white list: Presale in progress until the end of August 2018. Presale and whitelist registrations are currently open at https://tolar.io/presale.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: USA, China
  • Timeline: Currently planned for September 15-20, 2018 (14:00 GMT). The ICO may end earlier if hard cap is reached (please visit Tolar’s official website and join their Telegram channel for the most up-to-date information on their upcoming token sale)
  • Token distribution date: Q3 2018

Website: https://www.tolar.io

Whitepaper: https://www.tolar.io/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tolar-whitepaper-1.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

 

 

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