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August 13, 2018

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Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

 

Markets Drop Lower As Fear Continues to Spread

Is There An End In Sight?

 

The market dug the hole just a little deeper today as it sold off another 15 Billion indicating that the fear has not left the market and the bears are fully in control.

What’s clear is that Bitcoin is showing many positive signs throughout this turmoil.

 

It gained a massive amount of market dominance today as the market fled into BTC reserves, ending the day at over 53% of the total market.

 

On the flipside, Ethereum had one of its worst days ever, down over 11% on the daily chart and almost 30% on the weekly chart.

 

ETH has now effectively erased 100% of its year-over-year growth and is down 78% from its all-time high of $1,337. Interestingly, the current price of ETH is almost equivalent to the price of

ETH exactly one year ago.

 

It’s no secret that Platforms are hurting bad right now. EOS is down 34% on the weekly chart and NEO is down 38%.

 

So what’s the deal? Why are people jumping ship from platforms when they were such a surefire bet a few months ago?

As the cryptocurrency industry continues to mature, it seems that platforms are the targets of animosity regarding scams and bad actors in the space.

 

According to a recent report by Diar, ICO exit scams have now cost investors nearly $100 Million.

 

From Diar, “Unsurprisingly, the blatant exit scams continue to plague the largely unregulated ICO sector where the founders have no contractual obligation to deliver a product. After raising millions of dollars with no string attached, the founders’ incentives to actually build a valuable company are very limited.”

 

That sort of egregious disregard for investor faith and capital really spoils the whole space. Add on negative comments from notable voices such as Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, and Jaime Dimon, coupled with the high profile boom and bust over the past year, and you have a perfect storm of bad perceptions and optics by the general public.

 

So it seems that the very concept of decentralization is at war with these bad actors who are preying on investor’s inhibitions.

 

After all, in a time of political discord and lack of trust, who better to swoop in and protect us against ourselves than the governments and established financial institutions? If this cryptocurrency thing is so dangerous and so many people are being scammed, wouldn’t it be easier to just regulate it to death and let the big banks fight over the scraps?

 

But, this is exactly what we have been waiting for.

 

Faith in a project, in a movement, requires there be sacrifice and hardship and toil. Cryptocurrency is more than scams. Blockchain is more than bad ICOs. The concerns about user data and privacy on the Internet have not disappeared over the past 25 years.

 

The conversation has evolved, the context is different, but the underlying issues persisted and will continue to do so.

 

Does that mean the freedom of the Internet is worth abandoning and letting the governments and big ISPs fight over the scraps? No.

 

Free blockchain development is just as important as a free and open Internet. We’ll seen the birth of one of the most revolutionary movements in technology over the past few decades. Blockchain is the latest iteration and embodies the spirit of that innovation.

 

Simply because some choose to use it in a negative way does not bespoil the inherent innovation.

 

The needs of the many outweigh the crimes of a few.

 

Blockchain will continue to evolve and adapt to a changing world, and cryptocurrency will continue to show us what it is capable of.

 

Let’s champion that instead of giving ammunition to those who would seek to limit this innovation and freedom.

 

Hang in there, we’re all in this boat together.

Mav is currently on the road and will be unable to produce any commentary videos until his return mid-week.

If you were not able to join us for the recent webinar “Ten Steps to Building Your Portfolio” webinar, the replay is available here.

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and episode eight is now available. Episode Eight is an interview with Andrei Polgar, the author of the book “Age of Anomaly” which speaks to anticipating negative market events. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!

See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

Our Weekly Livestream

Our next Premium-Only Livestream is scheduled for 8/15/2018 at 8 PM EDT (UTC/GMT -4 hours). Invite & link to follow.

New to Cryptocurrencies? Check out our archived classes “Intro to Cryptocurrency Trading”, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency: Intro to Fundamental Analysis,” Mav’s  class on “Security and Wallets” and Doc’s classes, “Introduction to Technical Analysis” and “Short Term Trading Strategies” which are now all available for immediate purchase in our Store, and seconds away from viewing in the Premium Member’s Home. View more about them at our online store by CLICKING HERE.

 

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Check out our new merch store! Simply go into the regular store and select “Merchandise” to pick up some RSC merch!

 

Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None today.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="72847"]
How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab

  • ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14. (12% more to add)
  • LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56.  (6% more to add)
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Technical Analysis Research

This past weekend we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets.

 

As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry.   In today’s video I discuss the similarities to the 2014 Bear, and how this is all necessary. The sooner we plunge, the better.. There is no rush to get in while we’re cost-averaging down during a bear. Patience is key.     Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

 

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Chromapolis

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

Database-centric decentralized application orientated platform with a different approach to token economy.

What is our verdict? 

What we like: A good iteration on DApp development with several built-in features that will make DApps faster and more feature-rich

What we don’t like: No alpha, Public GitHub Repo, MVP, or Whitepaper. Looks like it will be fairly centralized to start with hand-picked nodes.

  • Project name: Chromapolis
  • Token symbol: CHROMA
  • Website: https://chromaway.com/ (website of the parent company ChromaWay, website for Chromapolis coming soon)
  • White paper: TBA
  • Hard cap: $15 million (private sale contributors will own 15% of the total token supply)
  • Conversion rate: TBA
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $100 million
  • Bonus structure: TBA
  • Private sale / white list: TBA
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: TBA
  • Timeline: Unconfirmed whether the project will have a public crowdsale at the moment
  • Token distribution date: October 2018

Website: https://chromaway.com/

Whitepaper: TBA

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

 

 

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