Premium Daily Crypto NewsletterAugust 23, 2018
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Crypto Market Commentary
Mav's Daily Commentary
Markets Don’t React To ETF Denial
Are Traders Ambivalent At This Point?
Following the 9 ETF rejections yesterday, the market has essentially flatlined as it struggles to find strong feelings either way.
Bitcoin has only fluctuated in price by ~$10 for the majority of the past 24 hours. Volume has been dropping ever since the SEC news dropped.
Truly, this is a very different reaction to the absolutely dismal emotions we encountered following the VanEck ETF denial.
So, what’s going on?
Where’s the massive sell-off? After all, the SEC wiped out nearly every ETF application on the table in one fell swoop.
Bitcoin shorts have been rising since the Bitmex scheduled maintenance. Where’s the massive short squeeze?
In addition to yesterday’s SEC announcement, China’s lawmakers also came out with a new policy to strengthen the regulation of cryptocurrency trading and initial coin offerings (ICOs). In addition, they are seeking to block access to 124 foreign crypto exchanges.
They also cracked down on crypto payments using popular payments services such as Alipay.
So, the market’s reaction is to do nothing at all?
Seriously, what’s going on?
For one, despite the record number of short positions, investors were better prepared for the SEC’s announcement this time. The VanEck / SolidX ETF delay and the Winklevoss ETF denial both took the market by surprise because the narratives had a different view, but the market was much better prepared for this.
Quite simply, people are starting to accept that we don’t need an ETF.
Reading back through the decision delivered yesterday, one of the stated reasons was that “unidentifiable participants can influence the market”. Given the unregulated and pseudo-anonymous state of the market, the SEC setting the bar so high such that market manipulators must be identified puts the ETF application in a very precarious position.
Cryptocurrency is pseudo-anonymous, and in some cases fully anonymous, which is not going to change anytime soon.
What is more likely to happen at this point is that the crypto markets will evolve and adapt to these circumstances.
This space wasn’t reliant on Satoshi Nakamoto, this space wasn’t reliant on Mt.Gox, this space wasn’t reliant on big banks and big government, and this space has never needed anyone’s approval to justify its existence.
Precious metals are manipulated every day through paper markets and the SEC seems fine with that. Currencies and bonds are manipulated through central banks as well and the SEC seems none the wiser. Setting the bar of anti-anonymity so high on a currency that is truly worldwide and discretionary by design is a foolish position to take.
ETFs will do to BTC what they’ve done to gold — artificial inflation by paper shares.
Bitcoin’s major selling point is that it has a limited supply and it is deflationary.
We know from gold’s paper market that there are far more shares of gold than actual bullion they’re based on, creating an artificial inflation especially in times of uncertainty, like we saw in the post-2008 market.
But gold and Bitcoin differ vastly on a basic principle — gold can flourish as a stable asset because the majority of people don’t try to trade their shares for the underlying asset.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is inherently a free-market vehicle and has a very limited delivery schedule.
So we find ourselves in a position of uncertainty, which is clearly reflected in today’s markets.
I do think the ETF is an eventuality, but by the time we actually see it approved, it will matter a whole lot less than how much the market supposedly needs it today.
What we’ve seen time and time again with Bitcoin and the crypto space is that when confronted by adverse odds, we find ways of adapting to the changing circumstances.
If you’ve only been in the space for a little while, watch it closely because it may surprise you.
In 6 months we might even look backward and laugh about how much we thought we “needed” the ETF and how different the market has become.
This is a space that embraces change and chaos, so you need to learn to subvert your expectations, or the market may do that for you.
Whatever the case, hopefully over the next month we can return to discussing developments in the underlying technology, interesting projects that are rising stars in the space, and real tangible improvements to existing solutions.
Wouldn’t that be nice?
Mark your calendars for this Thursday evening! We’re going to hold a special one-hour session on “Top Ten Ways to Create Passive Income With Crypto.” This session will be held Thursday at 8pm EDT (New York) and of course, we will provide a link to a replay session if you cannot attend. Sign up here to get the live session where we answer your questions!
We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Ten is now available. Episode Ten speaks to this whole notion of “Buy The Dip” and whether or not that is sage advice for today’s market. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!
See you tomorrow!
Doc's Daily Commentary
Our Weekly Premium-Only Livestream
Our next Premium-Only Livestream is scheduled for 29 August 2018 at 8 PM EDT (UTC/GMT -4 hours). Watch below for new link.
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New to Cryptocurrencies? Check out our archived classes “Intro to Cryptocurrency Trading”, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency: Intro to Fundamental Analysis,” Mav’s class on “Security and Wallets” and Doc’s classes, “Introduction to Technical Analysis” and “Short Term Trading Strategies” which are now all available for immediate purchase in our Store, and seconds away from viewing in the Premium Member’s Home. View more about them at our online store by CLICKING HERE.
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Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- None today.
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
RSC Managed Crypto Fund
- ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14. (12% more to add)
- LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56. (6% more to add)
Technical Analysis Research
In today’s video I discussed how we have to be patient to wait for upside swings before we go hunting for swing trades; while the scanner might be showing a lot of candidates, many of these trades would be low-liquidity traps and not worth your investment lest they turn into “bags.” Everything else is showing a bear flag setup. Volume is perking up which is GREAT!.
In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry. All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI.
Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event.
Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :
- DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
- ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here. If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.
Fundamental Currency Research
For flipping Good.
For long-term holding Neutral.
What is it?
What is our verdict?
What we like: A good iteration on DApp development with several built-in features that will make DApps faster and more feature-rich
What we don’t like: No alpha, Public GitHub Repo, MVP, or Whitepaper. Looks like it will be fairly centralized to start with hand-picked nodes.
- Project name: Chromapolis
- Token symbol: CHROMA
- Website: https://chromaway.com/ (website of the parent company ChromaWay, website for Chromapolis coming soon)
- White paper: TBA
- Hard cap: $15 million (private sale contributors will own 15% of the total token supply)
- Conversion rate: TBA
- Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $100 million
- Bonus structure: TBA
- Private sale / white list: TBA
- ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
- Countries excluded: TBA
- Timeline: Unconfirmed whether the project will have a public crowdsale at the moment
- Token distribution date: October 2018
2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.