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August 26, 2018

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Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

Week In Review

Does An Ambivalent Market Predicate Volatility?

 

The market ended this week nearly neutral from where it started — the second week in a row we’ve seen this, indicating indecision among traders.

The big news this week centered around the Proshares Bitcoin ETF and its final decision deadline for August 23rd. The SEC delivered their decision on August 22nd, along with their decision for the Direxion Bitcoin ETF.

 

Delivering a denial to both did little to move the markets, a stark contrast to the sell-off we saw two weeks ago following the delay of the VanEck / SolidX ETF.

 

The simple explanation of this contrast is that the markets better anticipated a denial of these Future-backed ETFs, compared to misinformation surrounding the SolidX Commodity-backed ETF. The SEC, unsurprisingly, levied the same reasons against the Proshares / Direxion ETF applications as they did for the Winklevoss ETF application: market manipulation and market infrastructure will cause retail investors to suffer.

 

The more complicated explanation regarding the lackluster market following the denial this week highlights the market’s growing intolerance for the ETF and the massive amount of hollow hype it has created.

 

Questions are now being raised if the ETF is necessary, if we actually want it, and if it’s actually good for the market.

 

The SEC revealed the next day those applications that were denied are now up for review, sending shockwaves of confusion and speculation throughout the market. We still think they’ll be denied for the same reasons, but this does highlight how even the SEC doesn’t quite know how to operate under these conditions. We saw some BTC shorts liquidated as the price started to ascend this weekend.

 

More investors are adopting the mindset that we need to focus on other methods of institutional investment, and advancing the underlying technology that makes this all happen.

Meanwhile, efforts like Gemini’s Virtual Currency Association, a self-regulatory organization spearheaded by the Winklevoss twins, and the new market opportunities of the startup Bakkt will help the market mature and self-regulate.

 

We’re still seeing permabulls try to forecast Bitcoin’s price by the end of the year, with Fundstrat’s Head of Research Tom Lee saying that cryptocurrency “could end the year explosively higher,” and claiming that Bitcoin could hit $25,000 by the end of 2018.

The “tide is changing” for both Bitcoin and emerging markets, he said, especially if the U.S. Federal Reserve slows down its interest rate hikes.

 

If the tide is indeed changing, we’ll need to see how we can stay in front of it.

 

After all, while 2017 as a whole was pretty exciting, it was the months of August through December that really saw the market explode.

 

We’re going to need to attract a lot more volume to see something like that happen again, and more investors are starting to get on board with 2019 being a big year for the space, but we still have four months in 2018 to see what happens.

If you missed Mav’s webinar “Top Ten Ways to Create Passive Income With Crypto” then you can watch the webinar at this link. The Passive Income Class is only on sale until tonight, available here

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Ten is now available. Episode Ten speaks to this whole notion of “Buy The Dip” and whether or not that is sage advice for today’s market. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!

See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

Our Weekly Premium-Only Livestream

Our next Premium-Only Livestream is scheduled for 29 August 2018 at 8 PM EDT (UTC/GMT -4 hours). Watch below for new link.

Our Public Livestream

New to Cryptocurrencies? Check out our archived classes “Intro to Cryptocurrency Trading”, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency: Intro to Fundamental Analysis,” Mav’s  class on “Security and Wallets” and Doc’s classes, “Introduction to Technical Analysis” and “Short Term Trading Strategies” which are now all available for immediate purchase in our Store, and seconds away from viewing in the Premium Member’s Home. View more about them at our online store by CLICKING HERE.

 

Last Thursday we held a “Passive Income” webinar. Click here for the replay!

 

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If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto

 

Check out our new merch store! Simply go into the regular store and select “Merchandise” to pick up some RSC merch!

 

Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None today.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="72847"]
How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab

 

  • ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14. (12% more to add)
  • LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56.  (6% more to add)
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Click on image to download the datasheet

RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="74717"]

What is this? The RSC Altcoin Fund is meant to replace our V1 portfolio. This portfolio, referred to as Portfolio V3, will represent a portfolio that is built upon more risky assets (assets outside the top 20), and is inherently more risky than Portfolio V2, the RSC Managed Crypto Fund (above). We will NOT be actively entering positions for this fund, but we will be updating the portfolio percentages and contents periodically.

Click on image to download the datasheet

Technical Analysis Research

In today’s video I discussed the current price patterns showing on BTC as well as the rest of the V2 portfolio coins. ICX is potentially showing a long swing as is NANO; we’ll keep an eye on those two.

 

Everything else is showing a bear flag setup. Volume is perking up which is GREAT!. In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets.   As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry.  All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI.  Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

 

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Chromapolis

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

Database-centric decentralized application orientated platform with a different approach to token economy.

What is our verdict? 

What we like: A good iteration on DApp development with several built-in features that will make DApps faster and more feature-rich

What we don’t like: No alpha, Public GitHub Repo, MVP, or Whitepaper. Looks like it will be fairly centralized to start with hand-picked nodes.

  • Project name: Chromapolis
  • Token symbol: CHROMA
  • Website: https://chromaway.com/ (website of the parent company ChromaWay, website for Chromapolis coming soon)
  • White paper: TBA
  • Hard cap: $15 million (private sale contributors will own 15% of the total token supply)
  • Conversion rate: TBA
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $100 million
  • Bonus structure: TBA
  • Private sale / white list: TBA
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: TBA
  • Timeline: Unconfirmed whether the project will have a public crowdsale at the moment
  • Token distribution date: October 2018

Website: https://chromaway.com/

Whitepaper: TBA

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

 

 

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