Premium Daily Crypto NewsletterAugust 26, 2018
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Crypto Market Commentary
Mav's Daily Commentary
Week In Review
Does An Ambivalent Market Predicate Volatility?
The market ended this week nearly neutral from where it started — the second week in a row we’ve seen this, indicating indecision among traders.
The big news this week centered around the Proshares Bitcoin ETF and its final decision deadline for August 23rd. The SEC delivered their decision on August 22nd, along with their decision for the Direxion Bitcoin ETF.
Delivering a denial to both did little to move the markets, a stark contrast to the sell-off we saw two weeks ago following the delay of the VanEck / SolidX ETF.
The simple explanation of this contrast is that the markets better anticipated a denial of these Future-backed ETFs, compared to misinformation surrounding the SolidX Commodity-backed ETF. The SEC, unsurprisingly, levied the same reasons against the Proshares / Direxion ETF applications as they did for the Winklevoss ETF application: market manipulation and market infrastructure will cause retail investors to suffer.
The more complicated explanation regarding the lackluster market following the denial this week highlights the market’s growing intolerance for the ETF and the massive amount of hollow hype it has created.
Questions are now being raised if the ETF is necessary, if we actually want it, and if it’s actually good for the market.
The SEC revealed the next day those applications that were denied are now up for review, sending shockwaves of confusion and speculation throughout the market. We still think they’ll be denied for the same reasons, but this does highlight how even the SEC doesn’t quite know how to operate under these conditions. We saw some BTC shorts liquidated as the price started to ascend this weekend.
More investors are adopting the mindset that we need to focus on other methods of institutional investment, and advancing the underlying technology that makes this all happen.
Meanwhile, efforts like Gemini’s Virtual Currency Association, a self-regulatory organization spearheaded by the Winklevoss twins, and the new market opportunities of the startup Bakkt will help the market mature and self-regulate.
We’re still seeing permabulls try to forecast Bitcoin’s price by the end of the year, with Fundstrat’s Head of Research Tom Lee saying that cryptocurrency “could end the year explosively higher,” and claiming that Bitcoin could hit $25,000 by the end of 2018.
The “tide is changing” for both Bitcoin and emerging markets, he said, especially if the U.S. Federal Reserve slows down its interest rate hikes.
If the tide is indeed changing, we’ll need to see how we can stay in front of it.
After all, while 2017 as a whole was pretty exciting, it was the months of August through December that really saw the market explode.
We’re going to need to attract a lot more volume to see something like that happen again, and more investors are starting to get on board with 2019 being a big year for the space, but we still have four months in 2018 to see what happens.
We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Ten is now available. Episode Ten speaks to this whole notion of “Buy The Dip” and whether or not that is sage advice for today’s market. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!
See you tomorrow!
Doc's Daily Commentary
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Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- None today.
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
RSC Managed Crypto Fund
- ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14. (12% more to add)
- LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56. (6% more to add)
RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund
What is this? The RSC Altcoin Fund is meant to replace our V1 portfolio. This portfolio, referred to as Portfolio V3, will represent a portfolio that is built upon more risky assets (assets outside the top 20), and is inherently more risky than Portfolio V2, the RSC Managed Crypto Fund (above). We will NOT be actively entering positions for this fund, but we will be updating the portfolio percentages and contents periodically.
Technical Analysis Research
In today’s video I discussed the current price patterns showing on BTC as well as the rest of the V2 portfolio coins. ICX is potentially showing a long swing as is NANO; we’ll keep an eye on those two.
Everything else is showing a bear flag setup. Volume is perking up which is GREAT!. In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry. All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI. Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :
- DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
- ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here. If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.
Fundamental Currency Research
For flipping Good.
For long-term holding Neutral.
What is it?
What is our verdict?
What we like: A good iteration on DApp development with several built-in features that will make DApps faster and more feature-rich
What we don’t like: No alpha, Public GitHub Repo, MVP, or Whitepaper. Looks like it will be fairly centralized to start with hand-picked nodes.
- Project name: Chromapolis
- Token symbol: CHROMA
- Website: https://chromaway.com/ (website of the parent company ChromaWay, website for Chromapolis coming soon)
- White paper: TBA
- Hard cap: $15 million (private sale contributors will own 15% of the total token supply)
- Conversion rate: TBA
- Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $100 million
- Bonus structure: TBA
- Private sale / white list: TBA
- ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
- Countries excluded: TBA
- Timeline: Unconfirmed whether the project will have a public crowdsale at the moment
- Token distribution date: October 2018
2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.