Premium Daily Crypto NewsletterAugust 27, 2018
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Crypto Market Commentary
Mav's Daily Commentary
Markets Inch Higher
August Still Very Negative, But Could End On A Positive Note
The market has continued to climb since we bounced off of 203 Billion last Wednesday. As we hit 218 Billion today, it sure makes it clear how far we’ve fallen even from a month ago. At the end of July we saw a temporary peak of 300 Billion before establishing a new yearly low just two weeks later.
This is all after we saw nearly a month of bullish action in April that ended with a peak on May 5th at 463 Billion and Bitcoin just $40 short of hitting $10,000.
As we approach the final third of the year, it seems natural to see a course correction as trading volume picks up coming out of summer.
Even still, some are rescinding their end-of-year predictions.
For example, Anthony Pompliano had previously called for $50k BTC EOY, but has now changed his prediction to a multi-year bear market, stating:
“Parabolic increases in price continue to take longer — each parabolic run is measured from the last all-time high to the new all-time high. The first rapid price appreciation took just over 300 days (2010-2011) and the second took over 900 days (2011-2013). The last parabolic price increase peaked at ~$20,000 (2013-2017) and took almost 1,500 days to complete.”
That’s sensible, markets follow broad patterns and trends, no one will argue against that.
But I think the story is much deeper than what charts can tell us alone.
The primary reason we saw a decline after 2013 was a scandal involving Mt.Gox and the subsequent failure of the market to find its purpose afterward. Mt.Gox had a majority of the total market, so when it failed it took the whole market down with it. With the advent of the ICO and the expansion of market infrastructure, along with continued ease of inquiry and use, it provided a perfect catalyst for what came next.
However, it should be noted that there were certainly ICOs and ICO platforms before late 2016 when the market really started to go parabolic.
What should be noted is that there weren’t many viable altcoins before that time. In 2016 the fundamentals were very different than 2013.
We find the same situation today.
The fundamentals are very different today than August 2017. We are in a much more mature market. Yes, it is still immature overall, but we can certainly see the effects starting to play out before us.
For example, the Bitcoin futures market overall is signaling both heightened demand and greater maturity. As we saw from the CME’s report in April, futures had seen an 85% growth rate. Extrapolate that out to Q1 2019 and you have a much more robust market.
Compare that to the latest dataset released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and you see that short positions fell by 210 contracts to 3,426 as compared with the previous week, with long positions up by 56 contracts at 2,160.
While it’s clear that Bitcoin Futures do not predicate price discovery (yet), this is certainly a weathervane of a trend away from bearish sentiment.
Couple this with the general trend towards a focus on technology, scalability, and legality, and it certainly is a reassuring thought.
While the Bitcoin ETF certainly doesn’t define the crypto space in any respect, it should impress upon regulators and institutional players that the crypto market is reaching out for more recognition.
It’s true that ETFs, Futures, and even Bitcoin itself does not define this space, but it heralds the shifting tide once more.
It’s clear to me that the next bull run will be predicated on the shift towards derivatives, an emphasis on legal channels of fundraising such as security token offerings, and most exciting will be impending breakthroughs in adoption and the technology itself.
Truly, we’re once again looking at the difficult climb before us, but the view from the top is worth it.
Find resolve in thinking about what landmark years 2019 and 2020 will be for the Blockchain space. Find motivation in the fact that you’ll be a part of something big before it is big.
The years before us will make the years behind us look like nothing in comparison.
If you missed Mav’s webinar “Top Ten Ways to Create Passive Income With Crypto” then you can watch the webinar at this link.
We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Ten is now available. Episode Ten speaks to this whole notion of “Buy The Dip” and whether or not that is sage advice for today’s market. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!
See you tomorrow!
Doc's Daily Commentary
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Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- None today.
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
RSC Managed Crypto Fund
- ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14. (12% more to add)
- LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56. (6% more to add)
RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund
What is this? The RSC Altcoin Fund is meant to replace our V1 portfolio. This portfolio, referred to as Portfolio V3, will represent a portfolio that is built upon more risky assets (assets outside the top 20), and is inherently more risky than Portfolio V2, the RSC Managed Crypto Fund (above). We will NOT be actively entering positions for this fund, but we will be updating the portfolio percentages and contents periodically.
Technical Analysis Research
In today’s video I discussed what could happen to generate a nice reversal in BTC, as well as positive price patterns that I’m seeing in VET as well as NEO. We’re starting to see signs of life from a very dormant market and volume is increasing! I would love to see a final, screaming capitulation (even though I know it would be rough on everyone) but that’s the quickest way to a lasting Bull.
In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry. All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI. Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :
- DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
- ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here. If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.
Fundamental Currency Research
In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof. That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:
For flipping Good.
For long-term holding Neutral.
What is it?
What is our verdict?
What we like: Supernodes are very interesting. No trading commissions for users.
What we don’t like: There are many exchanges already on the market. Transaction mining isn’t currently solvent.
- Project name: Bgogo Exchange
- Token symbol: BGG
- Website: https://bgogo.com
- White paper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf
- Hard cap: 17,000 ETH (15,000 ETH during private sale and to supernodes, 2,000 ETH during public sale) for 10% of total tokens
- Conversion rate: Private sale: 1 ETH = 66,666 BGG; public sale: 1 ETH = 69,999.3 BGG.
- Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $51 million based on current ETH price of $300
- Bonus structure: Whitelisted public sale participants have a 5% bonus over the private sale price, with no lockup period.
- Private sale: The private sale has already been completed with 10,500 ETH raised from 21 supernodes and 4,500 ETH from strategic investors.
- White list: Bgogo’s public sale will be a Genesis Mining event (exact date to be confirmed) that will start 24 hours before mining is officially opened to the public. Only whitelisted users can participate. Details on the Genesis Mining event can be found here: https://bgogo.com/announcement?link=mining.
- ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
- Countries excluded: TBA
- Timeline: TBA
- Token distribution date: TBA
2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.