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Mind Of Mav

 
 

The Bottom According to Arthur  

Arthur Hayes, the digital Provocateur who founded BITMex, always has a spicy take when it comes to the crypto market. He thinks that the Bitcoin bottom is in.

Here are his arguments in bullet form: 

 

* Bitcoin’s role as crypto’s “reserve asset” is undisputed during difficult times.

* Three entities were forced to puke out BTC during the fall: 1) centralized lending and trading firms, 2) mining operations, and 3) ordinary speculators.

* Misuse of leverage was the cause of these liquidations, whether by firm or individual. 

Let’s dive into each of the three:

Centralized Lending Destruction

 

Regarding the centralized lending firms, some bankruptcies were due to “duration mismatches” because lenders receive deposits that can be recalled on a short time frame against loans on those deposits on a longer time frame. The centralized lending firm might then go insolvent or bankrupt. 

 

In order to generate cash, these centralized lending firms will try to recall all downstream funds; everything rolls downhill. 

 

Because of the nature of these over-leveraged relationships, Hayes feels that there is no appreciable Bitcoin left to sell from these firms. 

 

Miners

Hayes also believes that the Miners have had to part with a huge amount of BTC due to the dropping price and increasing power bills. 

Miners recently hit a peak of off-load transfer; this means that many have gone out of business due to the drop in hashrate. 

 

Speculators

The third group to get blown out have been BTC speculators. High open interest on the BTC perpetual swap contract. The more open contracts there are, the higher the Open Interest: 

 

High Open Interest always points to market highs, when the greatest number of small traders are speculating. The current low Open Interest means that most of the over-leveraged positions have been destroyed. 

 

What’s not known is if the OI could drop further with more traders finally cashing in their hand. However, most of the destruction has occurred. 

 

Perhaps now is the time to DCA?

 

The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

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What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
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community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
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The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

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What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN
DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:

 

 

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