Doc's Daily Commentary and Watchlist

Mind Of Mav

The CPI Giveth and the Fed Taketh Away

The Consumer Price Index was released on Tuesday morning and showed that inflation hitting the consumer had only risen .1% over the past month, showing a potential apogee in inflation. This was good news for all risk markets as they rallied at the potential of seeing – at the very least – a slowing of the interest rate hikes that have crushed risk assets in 2022. 

And then Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stepped up to the plate with their latest policy release yesterday. The central bank said it will continue hiking rates through 2023 and projected its fed funds rate to peak at a higher-than-expected 5.1%. With Wednesday’s half a percentage point hike, the targeted range for rates is currently 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.

Despite improvements in growth, spending and production, Powell indicated he remains concerned job gains are too robust and the unemployment rate is too good for the Fed’s fight against inflation.

 
 

The problem is that the Bond market is already starting to price in weakness which is being felt by commodities and labor markets. 

This morning’s retail sales report also showed markets softening and the consumer buckling under the weight of the new interest rate hikes.

In the short term, I think we’ll have to go through some pain with all risk assets until the markets collapse a little further and the FOMC starts to acknowledge that they went too far, too fast for today’s conditions. Markets have never seen rates being raised into a recession before; history will not judge this period kindly for the Fed. 

How this will hit Crypto no one knows; there is the idea that BTC and ETH have seen most of their panic selling done with already through the FTX crisis, so it might hit those assets more gently than others. 

 

 

The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

Add your vote to the V3 Portfolio (Phase 3) by clicking here.

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View V3 Portfolio (Phase 1) by clicking here.

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What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as
possible.

The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

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The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)

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What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN
DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:

 

 

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