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February 27, 2018

 

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Crypto Market Commentary

Cryptos maintain slow but steady uptrend

Why does this feel like déjà vu?

 

Need a go-to place for every conceivable FUD-inducing event that could threaten or challenge crypto as a whole? It’s your lucky day.

I want to rebuild this because the risk assessment is all over the place and the formatting is painful to look at, but it is effective in conveying the possibilities that we as investors in the space should consider. Knowing what could happen makes you that much more prepared, and ahead of the herd, for what does happen.

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer for Goldman’s Private Wealth Management unit, was quoted saying that cryptocurrencies – at least those that might one day be created by central banks – could be “incredibly useful.”

“The bitcoin prices are astronomical. Then we compare that to ether, and ether is even more astronomical,” she went on to say. “So clearly, these valuations don’t make sense to us.”

“Is there room for a digital currency, maybe sponsored by one of the major central banks like the Federal Reserve? Yes. Could it be incredibly useful? Could it reduce transaction costs? Yes. But not these ones,” she said.

“So in terms of the impact, it’ll have some impact,” she said. “There are a lot of people who have set up various exchanges, infrastructure, hedge funds in that space, so obviously, they will get hurt. But it’s a very, very small part of global GDP”

The second richest person in the world, Bill Gates, weighed in on cryptocurrencies during a Reddit AMA today.

“The main feature of crypto currencies is their anonymity. I don’t think this is a good thing. The Governments ability to find money laundering and tax evasion and terrorist funding is a good thing. Right now crypto currencies are used for buying fentanyl and other drugs so it is a rare technology that has caused deaths in a fairly direct way. I think the speculative wave around ICOs and crypto currencies is super risky for those who go long.”

You’re not wrong Bill. But I believe the comments regarding privacy and drugs would be more salient several years ago than today. The simple truth is that most cryptocurrencies are pseudo-anonymous. If you buy in through a KYC-enforcing exchange like Coinbase, there would be an audit trail to your wallet address if you bought bitcoin and used it for illicit purposes. Now, of course coins like Monero and Zcash exist which do mask the identities of the sender / recipient, but privacy coin trading volume makes up only a fraction of today’s cryptocurrency markets.

I’m not here to dismiss this is a problem with crypto, far from it, but the same exact argument can be levied against physical cash as well. Physical cash can obfuscate money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorist funding, and the US dollar is accepted just about anywhere those activities are taking place, which can’t be said for Bitcoin.

From my standpoint, governments would be better equipped to combat money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorist funding if we had a central bank issued cryptocurrency that tracked every transaction. Is that my hope? Of course not, the implications of a state issued blockchain currency are just as negative and Orwellian, but the point through all of this is something I expected a technologist and philanthropist like Bill Gates to understand: Technology is not equipped with morals. It is only as virtuous, as good or evil, as the wielder intends. A hammer can be used to build or it can be used for war, its purpose is merely to be an extension of the one holding it, a tool.

Cryptocurrency may be risky as a speculative asset as he asserts, that I agree with, but it is wrong to place blame solely on crypto for having caused deaths due to illicit drugs.

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

Current Portfolio

How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

None.
None.

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

HPB

XBY

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

ReadySetCrypto’s 7 Categories Of CryptoCurrency

Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.   

NEO

NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:

  • An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
  • A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
  • SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
  • Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.

NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.  

WaltonChain

WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:

  • A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
  • They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.

Ethereum

Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.

Tier 2 coins are those coins which have performed extremely well, we have a large amount of assets with, and we believe will continue to operate with high marks. What separates these coins from our Tier 1 status is a flaw or they haven’t yet proven their defining feature, though we believe they will.

OmiseGO

OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.

NAVCoin

NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:

  • The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.  
  • The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.

Ripple

Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.

  • Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
  • National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
  • XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.

Tier 3 coins are those coins which we have moderate investments and we believe have a possibility of high performance in the future, but as of yet have not shown enough performance to reduce their risk profile. Tier 3 coins are coins which are moderately risky, but due to our risk analysis of the project and team we believe have minimal chance of failure. 
Tier 4 coins are coins which we have minimal stake in, are highly risky, and we are contributing no more than 2% of our portfolio to. These coins represent the outer fringe of our risk analysis, in that we have little information to work with, have little insight into the coin’s performance, and at the very best we are making an educated guess that they will be successful. If a coin performs well and proves that it has a commitment to its compelling feature, it will be moved to the Tier 3 status.  

ICON

Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows

  • Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
  • Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
  • Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.

Fundamental Currency Research

After NEO has had some less than stellar ICO events in terms of performance of the network, a call was put out to expand the nodes on the network. Specifically, it called for 3 to 4 nodes with RPC endpoints tied to the network the City Of Zion, NEO’s volunteer developer group, has been maintaining. Just to clarify somewhat, these are seed nodes that provide public RPC (remote procedure call) endpoints, nothing related to consensus or security of the network. These are essentially hosted copies of the blockchain that users, such as ICOs, can execute commands against instead of having to download the chain themselves. Light wallets are the primary users of these as well as Distributed App (DApp) front ends will typically be using something like this as well.

Amazingly, the request worked and the number of RPC nodes tripled. The NEO community is blossoming and it’s really quite a sight to see them help to build an infrastructure together. The RPC nodes are now in 4 countries, and you can see the live network status here: http://monitor.cityofzion.io/

NEO continues to be one of the best performers in the top ten as we predicted yesterday with the announcement of the Ontology Airdrop occuring March 1st to NEO holders with their NEO in official wallets or Binance, Kucoin, or Huobi.

IOTA also continues to burn up the charts. This has largely been due to continued announcements with Bosch. Today’s announcement furthers both Bosch and IOTA’s commitment to smart cities.

“As an innovative IoT company, Bosch will take full advantage of its technical capabilities in sensors, software and services to provide solutions such as smart campus, connected parking, smart buildings, smart security, smart home, industrial 4.0 and environmental protection, etc. Support Country Garden to create a smart town, both parties work together to promote the concept of smart city landing.”

Litepay, the company that is using the Litecoin network to process merchant and consumer payments, announced today that they are delaying card registration indefinitely.

“Due to hostile actions by card issuers towards crypto companies, we have decided that offering LitePay card registrations at this time is imprudent”

Utilizing a network made up of thousands of computers, LitePay alleges to be able to settle transactions almost instantly, which it affirms will revoke any issues merchants and consumers have with price volatility.

Even though individuals will be unable to register today, merchant payment registration is still set to begin tonight at 21:00 Pacific Time.

Some people wrote in with confusion regarding the ICON wallet launch.

As we said yesterday, you need to make sure you’re sending your ICX tokens to an Ethereum (ERC-20) wallet. The token swap has not happened yet.   

When you generate a wallet you’ll have two options: ICX Wallet and Ethereum Wallet. For those who aren’t in the loop, the current ICX tokens in circulation right now are still ERC20 tokens, not ICX tokens. Again: The ICX tokens we all have are still running on the Ethereum Network as ERC20 tokens because the token swap from ERC20 tokens to “official” ICX tokens is yet to happen.

If you intend to transfer your ICX tokens from an exchange to your ICONex wallet right now, make sure you create and transfer to an ETHEREUM wallet and not an ICX wallet. You’ll also have to make sure that you’ve added the custom ICX ERC20 token just like you would in MyEtherWallet, otherwise you won’t see your balance.

If you’ve never added a custom token to an ERC20 wallet before here’s’ a quick primer when using ICONex: (Assuming you’ve already created an Ethereum wallet, do the following:)

  • Click the three dots to the right of your Ethereum wallet and choose ‘Add token’.
  • Copy and paste the following address into the address section: 0xb5a5f22694352c15b00323844ad545abb2b11028
  • Click enter and it’ll load the Token Symbol and Number of Decimals automatically.
    Put ‘ICON’ in token name (this is how it’ll appear in your dashboard).

You should now see your balance. Here’s the official guide from the ICON team themselves: https://medium.com/helloiconworld/how-to-add-icx-custom-token-df944450f998

        In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Solve.Care

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Good.

What is it? 

Solve.Care Foundation was established with the mission to decentralize and redefine administration of healthcare and other benefit programs, globally. They are seeking to improve care outcomes through effective coordination and eliminate much of the cost of duplication, inefficiency, waste, abuse and fraud from the system.

What is our verdict? 

What we like: We really like the idea of a platform for medical DApps. The team seems experienced and the use case is certainly present.

What we don’t like: Healthcare is massively complicated, especially in countries like the US. The adoption will be slow regardless of the team’s ambition.

  • 80 days

     

    Token
    CAN
    PreICO Price
    1 CAN = 0.085 USD
    Price
    1 CAN = 0.1 USD
    Bonus
    Available
    Platform
    Ethereum
    Accepting
    BTC, ETH
    Soft cap
    3,000,000 USD
    Hard cap
    35,000,000 USD
    Country
    Estonia

Website: https://solve.care/tokensale/

Whitepaper: https://solve.care/documents/Solve.Care-Whitepaper.pdf

Technical Analysis Research

Could we be seeing the breakout from “crypto winter” which has been effectively in place since mid-December? We’ve seen almost a 70% decline in BTC during this time, which is the bellwether currency. My hope is that this correction/bear has shaken off all of the dead wood that accompanies any bubble, and that we’re ready to go into accumulation mode again.

 

When none other than Bill Gates turns up his nose on crypto, you know that the bottom is near.

 

 

 

As I get time this week, I’ll continue to develop the short-term swing trades that we can take on the 30 minute chart that I first discussed in last weekend’s report. The key to securing commission-less trades will be to use limit orders in which we are the market-maker on both sides of the trade, in and out. Stop orders are traditionally market orders, so that might introduce a level of noise that we’ll have to work around. Fees are not cheap in this regard at .25% for BTC. If Stops are necessary (vs. mental stops and using limit orders to exit) then perhaps LTC would be a better instrument at .3% taker fees, which if my math is right is $.66 vs. a $26 commission for BTC. If I get more interest I will also also consider securing a license for profit trailer to see if we can set up trades.

 

Here are the elements that I think that one needs to successfully participate in short-term swings:

 

  • Instrument/Asset to Trade: What you’re trading needs to be liquid enough that your position is just a drop in the pond.
  • Timeframe: The timeframe that you’re going to trade needs to match your temperament, your available time, and the opportunities available.
  • Fees: minimizing net fees is important to achieve a net positive profit factor.
  • Entries: you must define clear, non-negotiable entries with transparent, easy-to-follow rules.
  • Exits: must be defined at or before your entry so that there is no guesswork.
  • Tracking/Analysis: a huge part of any system, it must learn from errors/mistakes/losses to determine if there is a root cause behind the loss.
  • Start small: My preference is that you start these trades with the minimum possible position size, and only through demonstrated performance should you start to lever up to even a fraction of a percent of your account size.

If you go to buy the course at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the $59 street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

  will not place much emphasis on Altcoins right now while markets are still working out the eventual bottom.

 

    I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

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