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January 21, 2018

 

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Crypto Market Commentary

A New Hope

Post-Crash Consolidation Continues

It has been a week for the history books yet again in the cryptocurrency segment, as the market went through another violent phase of the ongoing broad correction that finally cleared the momentum and sentiment extremes of the late-2017 rally.

Now, the majors are mostly in neutral long-term setups, although the late leaders of the rally are in an earlier part of their cycles.

Choppy market conditions remained dominant, as we expected, after the segment-wide crash and the subsequent spectacular bounce. Trading volumes plunged back to normal levels as the majors settled down, but correlations remained high across the board, and the short-term downtrend in Bitcoin and most of the largest coins is still intact.

Currently, bitcoin remains as the only cryptocurrency leading financial institutions and banks are building infrastructure around. Most recently, a South Korean government official stated that the government is in consideration of allowing local financial institutions to operate bitcoin futures exchanges.

Additionally, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), has built a cryptocurrency price tracker for high profile institutions in the traditional finance industry and is currently awaiting for the approval of the US Securities and Exchange Comission (SEC) to list four bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US stock market.

In the short term, that isn’t happening. Thursday the SEC’s director issued a staff letter that expressed companies offering cryptocurrency-based investment products are not yet able to comply with SEC regulations:

“We appreciate that proponents of cryptocurrencies and related products have identified a range of potential benefits. We are also aware that critics of cryptocurrencies have raised various concerns regarding transparency of information, trading, valuation and other matters related to the nature of the underlying assets.

In light of these considerations, we have, at this time, significant outstanding questions concerning how funds holding substantial amounts of cryptocurrencies and related products would satisfy the requirements of the 1940 Act and its rules.”

The Investment Company Act of 1940 is the source of regulation for all mutual funds, closed-end funds, hedge funds, private equity funds, and holding companies.

The US government does not move hastily. They will take their time, but they will eventually bend to pressure both internally and externally. When it’s apparent other major countries are seeing increased economic activity due to cryptocurrency acceptance, wheels will turn.   

The introduction of bitcoin ETFs will allow individual traders in the regulated US stock market to easily trade bitcoin with existing brokerage accounts, drastically increasing liquidity and accessibility for individual investors.

While the majority of investors in the cryptocurrency market have shifted their funds from bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies over the past six months, as seen in the bitcoin dominance index, bitcoin still remains as the most dominant cryptocurrency or the reserve currency of the market that is stable and less volatile.

In the short-term, the network effect of bitcoin and the rapid increase in adoption of the cryptocurrency will likely lead the price of bitcoin to increase. As of current, bitcoin is showing better signs of recovery than it did over a week ago, and is preparing to initiate a new rally.

But this is crypto, and what’s around the corner is not always obvious or easy to plan for. The market is vulnerable and based on the volume as of late is wondering, “What’s next?” Once people start to get excited again, watch out. 2018 will be the year we shoot past a 1 trillion dollar total market cap. You’re going to want to be on this ride well before we get there.

 

Welcome to our new members. Hope you have a great weekend. Talk to you Monday.

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • We wanted you to let WTC consolidate first before entering but it’s leaving the station; see alt-coin technical section below.
  • See ELF for a potential breakout play in the alt-coin technical section.
  • Added positions in TAU and BNTY
  • Expanded position in ICX

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • Nothing specific for early this week; please see comments in holdings below.

Current Portfolio

How to read this portfolio:

Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Blue = T2, Dark Green = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns)

Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin.

Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on.

Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin.

Stop = Our exit point, if it exists

What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

TAU

Lamden is a suite of developer tools that speed up the process of creating new and custom blockchains and apps. The Lamden Tau token connects these new projects together and with mainchain cryptocurrencies.

BNTY

A decentralized bounty hunting platform enabling anyone to manage bounty programs, and bounty hunters to receive payment for completing bounty tasks.

 

Tier 2

 ICX

 

I am currently carrying no BTC; in the upcoming days I will detail my exit from this position in 2017.

 

ReadySetCrypto’s 7 Categories Of CryptoCurrency

Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.   

NEO

NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:

  • An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
  • A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
  • SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
  • Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.

NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.  

WaltonChain

WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution

Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology.

The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention.

This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency.

Walton has two major competitive advantages:

  • A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
  • They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.

 

Ethereum

Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.

Tier 2 coins are those coins which have performed extremely well, we have a large amount of assets with, and we believe will continue to operate with high marks. What separates these coins from our Tier 1 status is a flaw or they haven’t yet proven their defining feature, though we believe they will.

OmiseGO

OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin.

OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.

NAVCoin

NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:

  • The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.  
  • The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.

ICON

Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows

  • Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
  • Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
  • Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.

Ripple

Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.

  • Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
  • National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
  • XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.

Tier 3 coins are those coins which we have moderate investments and we believe have a possibility of high performance in the future, but as of yet have not shown enough consistant performance to reduce their risk profile. Tier 3 coins are coins which are moderately risky, but due to our risk analysis of the project and team we believe have minimal chance of failure. 

Tier 4 coins are coins which we have minimal stake in, are highly risky, and we are contributing no more than 2% of our portfolio to. These coins represent the outer fringe of our risk analysis, in that we have little information to work with, have little insight into the coin’s performance, and at the very best we are making an educated guess that they will be successful. If a coin performs well and proves that it has a commitment to its compelling feature, it will be moved to the Tier 3 status.  

Fundamental Currency Research

In the large caps we’ve see a general sideways trend after a small recovery this weekend. It is very likely at this point that a correction will continue.  

For Bitcoin, the lowered total volume and general move of the market into altcoins has meant the network congestion has eased somewhat, thus lowering transaction fees. While we are still a far ways off from realistically paying for coffee with Bitcoin, this is a positive sign for an otherwise lackluster start of the year for Bitcoin. As Bitcoin’s market dominance continues to hover in the 30s, the reduced transaction fees may entice users to transfer strictly bitcoin, but we still recommend you convert to litecoin for sending between exchanges.

Ethereum had a positive spot of news as it was announced that the government of Canada is now using the Ethereum Blockchain. We have repeatedly forecasted how obvious the adoption of government style cryptocurrencies are. Corruption is stamped out when the public can check on how individuals are spending our money and resources. Furthermore, governments will soon start adopting national cryptocurrencies because the benefits are too hard to ignore. Whether for reasons dictatorial or monetary, governments will want to be able to see how, when, and why their citizens are transferring money. Tax evasion and money laundering will suddenly become much harder to hide, and funding terrorism is not something possible when authorities can just follow the money. What’s described here is purely hypothetical and on a scale of decades, but we assert that this reality described, or something like it, will come to pass. We support our neighbor country to the north in their pursuit of the blockchain, and hope other countries will soon follow.

Overall this week we are closely watching the price movement and will continue to watch this macro trend unfold.

We’ve seen some really interesting altcoin moves lately.

We really like partnerships at ReadySetCrypto. They signify a common purpose and direction, and if both projects can utilize the strengths of the other, they can mutually benefit. We often like to back both of the partner projects as a “package deal”.

We recently just made moves into Lamden ($TAU) and Bounty0x ($BNTY) in response to their announced partnership. We like Lamden’s direction and Mav attended a hackathon with their CEO and can attest to his programming expertise. That said, we split more of our investment in favor of Bounty0x, which has a slew of interesting things going for it.   

As Mav mentioned in the Top 10 video a couple weeks ago, the Kyber ($KNC) and ICON ($ICX) partnership was in the works but not yet announced. That changed this weekend, and in response we expanded our position in ICON.

Lastly, we were very excited to see WaltonChain ($WTC) win the 2018 Outstanding Blockchain Company Award at the 1st Summit Forum of Blockchain. This is added to a list of awards and patents WaltonChain has already won, which further solidifies our belief that it will be a break-out start this year.

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.

 

That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance.

Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

LOOMIA

A device that transforms clothes into data-collecting and identity tools

 

Ticker – Tile

When – Early Q1 2018, exact dates still to be announced

Price – $0.06

Supply – A total supply of 800 Million Tile tokens will be created, the number of tokens for sale still to be announced

Platform – Ethereum

Accepting – ETH (Possibly BTC) – USD contributions will be accepted over a specified amount. This will be announced soon.

Hard cap- $30 million

A link to the Loomia whitepaper

Where to participate in the Loomia token sale

Technical Analysis Research

The current top ten coins by market cap (as of today):

  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Ripple
  • Bitcoin Cash
  • Cardano
  • Litecoin
  • NEM
  • NEO
  • Stellar
  • EOS

Almost there? I don’t think that we’ll get the kind of violent upside short squeeze that most investors crave until we create a better capitulation move to the downside. I think if we see the prices roll over again that might be enough to create that event, as you hear a collective “aw I just KNEW that Bitcoin was a scam!” and they sell out and go back to their mutual funds.

Not sure if you should sell or maybe should have sold at higher prices? Feeling verklempt? Please do me a favor and watch the tech analysis part of our video (above) where I dig into this rhetorical question. To find success in investing and trading, we have to find ourselves first.

In our Top Ten analysis, we’re starting to see certain coins really distinguish themselves, while others languish. Let’s call it the “Bitcoin Effect.” Anything that even slightly resembles Bitcoin right now is having a difficult time recovering, while some of the platform coins are rocking. When the overall markets recover, the coins that held the greatest strength during the downturn will naturally rise faster as the new leaders.

In today’s video I showed how ICX was breaking its flag and is at a good point to enter, and I featured ELF which is really new but is showing real strength coming out of a short consolidation:

Finally, Waltonchain (WTC) is off and running and not waiting to build the “handle” that I spoke of last week.

Both of these would be aggressive adds here. WTC looks to early to sustain the brake but price is the final arbiter.

I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space.

 

If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know. You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

 

 

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