Crypto Market Commentary
22 January 2020
Doc's Daily Commentary
The 22 January ReadySetLive session with Doc and Mav is listed below.
Mind Of Mav
How Has 2020 Gone So Far?
In the beginning of 2020, Bitcoin has just recorded its best start to the year since 2012 with a price increase of 22%. An in-depth study of the behavior of Bitcoin price at the beginning of each year since 2012 is necessary to verify if this increase at the beginning of the year has an impact on the global annual trend.
This comparative study will also allow us to highlight the cyclical side of the evolution of the Bitcoin price with each Bitcoin Halving as a starting point.
By studying these cycles, I will also show you why the year 2021 promises even more for Bitcoin than the year 2020. While the bull market for Bitcoin will start well in 2020, the peak of the Bitcoin price increase is expected in 2021.
Comparison Of Bitcoin’s Start Of The Year From 2012 To 2020
I suggest going back to 2012 for this comparison and taking into account the first 20 days of each year.
Beginning Of Year 2012
As of January 1, 2012, the Bitcoin price was $5.27. The year had started well as Bitcoin had seen its price increase by 23% to reach $6.49 by January 20, 2012:
The Bitcoin price then followed this upward trend to end the year 2012 at $13.51.
The whole representing an increase of +156% driven notably by the first Halving of Bitcoin which took place on November 28, 2012.
Beginning Of Year 2013
As of January 1, 2013, Bitcoin price was $13.30. The beginning of the year started with a less pronounced increase than in 2012.
Nevertheless, the Bitcoin price increased by +18% to reach $15.70 on January 20, 2013:
The Bitcoin price then followed this upward trend to end the year 2013 at $757.50. This represents a phenomenal increase of +5,800%.
Beginning Of Year 2014
As of January 1, 2014, the Bitcoin price was $770.44. The beginning of the year started with an even less pronounced increase than in 2012 and 2013.
Thus, the Bitcoin price increased by +13% to reach $871.05 on January 20, 2014:
This slightly less successful start to the year for Bitcoin was a sign of a year of strong correction.
The Bitcoin price fell by 58.5% to finally reach the price of $319.70 at the end of 2014.
Beginning Of Year 2015
As of January 1, 2015, the Bitcoin price was $313.92. The beginning of the year started with a 33% drop which brought the Bitcoin price down to $210.48:
This sharp drop in the Bitcoin price in the first days of 2015 did not impact the general trend for the year 2015.
Indeed, after a rollercoaster year, the Bitcoin price increased sharply at the end of the year to reach $430.05. This represents a +37% increase in the Bitcoin price.
Beginning Of Year 2016
Bitcoin starts the year 2016 with a price of $434.46. As of January 20, 2016, Bitcoin is priced at $418.74. This represents a slight decrease of 3.5%:
Despite this slightly bearish start to 2016 for Bitcoin, the rest of the year is marked by Bitcoin’s second Halving.
This second Halving starts a bull market for Bitcoin which brings its price to $968.23 by the end of 2016, an increase of 123%.
Beginning Of Year 2017
As of January 1, 2017, Bitcoin price is $997.69. Bitcoin Price then experiences a small correction at the beginning of the year following the bull market at the end of 2016.
As of January 20, 2017, Bitcoin price was $891.62, a decrease of 10.5%:
The rest of 2017 was marked by a very strong bull market that followed this of 2016 which was the consequence of the second Bitcoin Halving.
On December 17, 2017, Bitcoin reached its historical price of $20K before ending the year at $13,860.14.
This represents an annual increase of 1,450%, which is simply phenomenal:
Beginning Of Year 2018
Bitcoin starts the year 2018 with a price of $13,412.44. Bitcoin price is extremely volatile in the early days of the year.
On January 6, 2018, Bitcoin has a hot streak that brings its price to $17,135.84.
As of January 20, 2018, Bitcoin price has finally dropped to $12,759.64, a 5% drop from its price at the beginning of the year:
After two years of strong growth, a bubble had formed around Bitcoin price.
This bubble burst in the year 2018 with a prolonged bear market. This led Bitcoin price to $3740.50 at the end of 2018, a gigantic drop of 72%.
Beginning Of Year 2019
The year 2019 starts on the aftermath of the bear market in Bitcoin price that started at the beginning of 2018. As of January 1, 2019, Bitcoin price is $3,869.47.
The market is in doubt and the first 20 days of 2019 are rather calm. As of January 20, 2019, Bitcoin price is $3,552.89, a decrease of about 8%:
A market turnaround will take place from April 2019 and Bitcoin will once again enter a bull market.
Its price soared to an annual record of $12,907.14 on June 26, 2019.
The rest of the year is more contrasted and Bitcoin ends the year with a price of $7,182.40, an increase of 85%.
Beginning Of Year 2020
We are now at the beginning of the year 2020 where Bitcoin had a price of $7,188.46 as of January 1st, 2020.
The beginning of the year was marked by the strong tensions between the United States and Iran with the risk of war which proved that Bitcoin was now well considered as a global store of value.
As of January 20, 2020, Bitcoin price was around $8.7K which represents an increase of 22%:
The Evolution Of Bitcoin Price At The Beginning Of A Year Has No Real Impact On The Overall Annual Trend
The comparative study of Bitcoin price over the first 20 days of the year as well as its evolution over the rest of each year can be summarized as follows:
2012: +23% over the first 20 days / +156% over the year / Halving
2013: +18% over the first 20 days / +5,800% over the year
2014: +13% over the first 20 days / -58.5% over the year
2015: -33% over the first 20 days / +37% over the year
2016: -3.5% over the first 20 days / +123% over the year / Halving
2017: -10.5% over the first 20 days / +1,450% over the year
2018: -5% over the first 20 days / -72% over the year
2019: -8% over the first 20 days / +85% over the year
2020: +22% over the first 20 days / Halving
The first observation that can be made is that there is no real correlation between the evolution of Bitcoin price over the first 20 days of the year and the overall trend over the rest of the year.
Bitcoin was down 10.5% in the first 20 days of 2017 before its price soared 1,450% in the year after.
Likewise, Bitcoin had started the year 2014 with an increase of +13% before finally experiencing a strong bear market leading to a decrease in its price of 58.5% overall over the year.
The year 2020 marks the best start of the year for the price of Bitcoin since 2012 with an increase of +22%.
While this increase at the beginning of the year restores optimism to the entire cryptocurrency industry, it is not enough to suggest an overall upward trend for the whole of 2020.
The Evolution Of Bitcoin Price Is Cyclical
You can also notice that the evolution of Bitcoin price is cyclical with a Bitcoin Halving as the starting point of a new cycle.
The year in which the Bitcoin Halving occurs marks the beginning of an increase in its price. But this increase remains measured as it was in 2012 and 2016.
The year following a Bitcoin Halving is when the bull market for Bitcoin is at its strongest with respective price increases of +5,800% in 2013 and +1,450% in 2017.
The year N+2 following a Bitcoin Halving is often the year of a strong correction as was the case in 2014 and 2018 with drops of 58.5% and 75% respectively in Bitcoin price.
Finally, the year N+3 following a Bitcoin Halving is the beginning of a trend reversal with a price increase that remains more or less measured as it was the case in 2015 and 2019 where the Bitcoin price increased by 37% and 85% respectively.
It’s 2020 and a Bitcoin Halving is planned for May.
This Halving will be the starting point of a new cycle for Bitcoin and the evolution of its price.
Optimism Is Back In The Bitcoin World
The good start to the year 2020 is not enough to indicate that the year 2020 will be globally bullish for Bitcoin. On the other hand, it allows a return to optimism in the Bitcoin world.
This return to general optimism is obviously linked to the approach of Bitcoin’s third Halving scheduled for May 2020.
The Bitcoin miners were not mistaken and the Hash Rate of the Bitcoin Blockchain has been breaking new power records for several weeks now.
On January 7, 2020, the Hash Rate exceeded 120 TH/s for the first time in the history of the Bitcoin Blockchain.
In year to year, this represents an increase of +155%:
This increase is significant because it shows that Bitcoin miners are convinced that Bitcoin price will rise sharply in the future.
Bitcoin miners are making more and more computing power available to the network because they believe they will be able to generate big profits in the coming months.
All the conditions are in place for Bitcoin price to rise sharply in the coming months.
The Strongest Bull Market For Bitcoin Is Expected To Take Place In 2021
As I explained earlier, the evolution of Bitcoin price is cyclical with a Bitcoin Halving as a starting point.
Bitcoin price evolution cycles are 4 years long and start in the year of a Bitcoin Halving.
The year of Halving marks the beginning of a sharp rise in Bitcoin price.
The N+1 year of Bitcoin Halving represented in 2013 and 2017 the strongest year of Bitcoin price increase with increases of 5,800% and 1,450% respectively, which are truly exceptional.
We are in 2020 and the Halving that will take place in May should allow a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin but probably less than 150%.
The peak of the upcoming bull market for Bitcoin is expected to occur in 2021 based on its past behavior over the past decade.
An increase of 5,800% as in 2013 seems out of reach, but an increase of around 500% seems quite credible for the year 2021.
Based on these assumptions, this suggests a Bitcoin price of around $17K by the end of 2020.
Finally, when the strongest increase in the price of Bitcoin takes place in 2021, the price of Bitcoin could very well be close to $100K if we assume a 500% increase in the post-Halving year.
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