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January 31, 2018

 

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Crypto Market Commentary

Market calms down

Are we poised for more volatility?

As we discussed yesterday, this week has been defined by Tether, the “stablecoin” which is likely being printed without dollar reserves backing it.

Here’s the thing: When central banks use quantitative easing (and every single one is doing it), they can do so because even as their currencies inflate, they are able to collect enough taxes to stay afloat. Private equity can’t do that. If Bitfinex has been printing money (Tether), it’s doing so to buy up Bitcoins and other cryptoassets for essentially nothing. This is all but confirmed because Tethers issuing events have been statistically correlated to major drops in Bitcoin.

That’s bad.

But thankfully, it’s not the worst thing. This is the best time for Tether to blow up. Why? Because it needs to happen. Bitfinex has likely been delaying their insolvency following their 72M loss of customer funds to a hack in August 2016. The Tether they issued in response is used throughout most major exchanges, and for it to suddenly become actually worthless may cause a ripple effect throughout crypto. Some exchanges could shudder. People will lose their money.

And then the market will recover. Unchecked euphoria? Bitconnect? Tether? These are the bandages that need to be ripped off for crypto to grow higher. It will be painful in the short term, but long term it will be for the best.

Remember, if you’re long on crypto as we are, days like today and months like this month are exactly what we need. Look back at the total market capitalization after the Mt.Gox hack. At the time, that was crypto armageddon and plenty of people declared Bitcoin and crypto dead. And yet, if you compare it to our most recent activity and volume, it hardly registers. There’s plenty of examples like that throughout the history of crypto. And yet we are still here and crypto is not dead.

Once we remove the “baggage” from crypto, the scam ICOs, the scam tokens, the Ponzi schemes, the terrible exchanges, the scalability issues, the nerve-wracking UX, etc., that’s when crypto will start to truly achieve the decentralized future we can just barely taste now.


We’ll get there. Progress isn’t something that happens overnight. We are invested in crypto, which means we believe this is a new asset class with potential to grow and shape our future. Don’t sweat the small stuff, and enjoy the ride.

Mav and Doc will be traveling on Thursday and over the weekend and as such the premium newsletter may be delayed by a few hours past the normal release times. We apologize for this inconvenience.

If you missed our class “Introduction to Cryptocurrency Trading” that we held on Saturday, it’s available now in our Premium Member’s Home as an archived class for those that purchase it. You can view more about it and watch the class today by visiting this link here.

 

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • Nothing specific for tomorrow; please see comments in holdings below.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • Nothing specific for tomorrow; please see comments in holdings below.

Current Portfolio

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.
No new holdings.

Tier 2

OMG

OmiseGO is a public Ethereum-based financial technology for use in mainstream digital wallets, that enables real-time, peer-to-peer value exchange and payment services agnostically across jurisdictions and organizational silos, and across both fiat money and decentralized currencies. Designed to enable financial inclusion and disrupt existing institutions, access will be made available to everyone via the OmiseGO network and digital wallet framework.

 

 ELF

Based in Singapore, aelf is a crosschain blockchain protocol that intends to become the new internet infrastructure to support the next generation of digital businesses. The team and its advisors have been advising numerous blockchain projects in the past and they see a few industries who could be the early adopters of aelf: financial services, insurance, digital identity and IPs, smart city, and internet of things. Aelf will actively identify new business opportunities and dApps to be part of the aelf ecosystem. Below are some of the things that they are planning to do: Interoperate with existing dApps on existing chains Nurture new start-ups ideas Educate and transform established companies to be blockchain savvy As a “third generation” blockchain, aelf strives to provide a breakthrough in 3 areas: performance, resource segregation, and governance structure. We will explore these features in more detail below.

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

Tier 4

XBY

BNTY

TAU

WISH

TRAC

ReadySetCrypto’s 7 Categories Of CryptoCurrency

Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.   

NEO

NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:

  • An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
  • A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
  • SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
  • Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.

NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.  

WaltonChain

WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:

  • A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
  • They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.

Ethereum

Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.

Tier 2 coins are those coins which have performed extremely well, we have a large amount of assets with, and we believe will continue to operate with high marks. What separates these coins from our Tier 1 status is a flaw or they haven’t yet proven their defining feature, though we believe they will.

 

OmiseGO

OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.

NAVCoin

NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:

  • The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.  
  • The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.

ICON

Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows

  • Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
  • Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
  • Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.

Ripple

Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.

  • Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
  • National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
  • XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.

Tier 3 coins are those coins which we have moderate investments and we believe have a possibility of high performance in the future, but as of yet have not shown enough performance to reduce their risk profile. Tier 3 coins are coins which are moderately risky, but due to our risk analysis of the project and team we believe have minimal chance of failure. 

Tier 4 coins are coins which we have minimal stake in, are highly risky, and we are contributing no more than 2% of our portfolio to. These coins represent the outer fringe of our risk analysis, in that we have little information to work with, have little insight into the coin’s performance, and at the very best we are making an educated guess that they will be successful. If a coin performs well and proves that it has a commitment to its compelling feature, it will be moved to the Tier 3 status.  

Fundamental Currency Research

Once again we are nearly net neutral as the market is incapable of breaking established support nor gaining momentum.  Ethereum and Bitcoin appear to be breaking apart. BTC is still in a 25 day downtrend  while ETH is in a 14 day uptrend. We’ll see what happens in the next couple weeks or so, last time ETH  and BTC got this close to “flipping”, BTC decided to wake up and go on a bull run for about five months. While it may seem like the natural outcome for these two to eventually flip, we are unsure that this is the “right” time for it. ETH has a long way to go before it’s ready to shoulder the scrutiny that Bitcoin faces every day. It could very well be that Bitcoin was the cryptocurrency equivalent of training wheels, and once it’s no longer relevant, it will cause a market crash or market boom. We lean to the latter, especially given how stagnant the market is right now. Think about this: ETH has to reach a price of ~$1,800 to overtake Bitcoin right now. That’s completely within the realm of possibility. No matter what, 2018 is going to be a pivotal year for crypto in many ways.  

The Raiblocks ($XRB) correction earlier this week looks to have been a perfect buy-in, as today it was revealed Raiblocks is rebranding to Nano, as we reported at the beginning of this month. It seems their prospective partnership with the ICO Dadi is on ice as Dadi has quickly become a very toxic coin given it was revealed it had plagiarized its whitepaper. Nano has several more good items of news in the works. It is now listed on the Rai Exchange, located here, which gives more choice outside of Bitgrail, which we are staying far away from after their actions this week. Lastly, a screenshot emerged of Nano appearing in the Binance source code, which indicates the XRB / BTC pair will be available very soon. Adding to WaltonChain’s ($WTC) impressive partnership list, they partnered with Jiangsu Zhongke Internet of Things Technology Venture Capital Co., Ltd. who are invested and established by China Internet of Things Research and Development Center with a registered capital of 150 million. It is a wholly state-owned enterprise with independent legal person qualification. This adds to their growing roster of of government agencies, industry alliances, research institutes, investment agencies, consulting agencies, and joint ventures partnered with Walton. Lisk had a very nice bull run today as it was revealed it would be listed on Bitflyer, Japan’s biggest exchange. https://www.ccn.com/lisk-price-surges-65-percent-on-bitflyer-listing/ Lisk is a very interesting JavaScript based platform that allows developers to deploy and develop their own custom blockchain, and decentralized applications. As we see with NEO’s success, having an agnostic code platform is extremely compelling.

        In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:  

REMME

Overall, we like both the flipping and long-term potential for this ICO. Our thoughts on buying the tokens for flipping and investing for the long term are as follows:

For flipping Good. Utility tokens with unique feature sets are often darlings of flippers.

For long-term holding Neutral. They need to prove they are more than a one-trick pony.

What is it? No more passwords  —  no more break-ins. REMME implements unbreakable, foolproof user authentication to protect your users, employees, and company’s data from cyber attacks.  Most security breaches happen because of some sort of human weakness. A password may be too easy to guess; people leave their browsers open on public computers, write passwords down on paper or in a file on their computers, or simply get tricked into giving away their login data. The REMME technology makes passwords obsolete, thus eliminating the human factor from the authentication process.  Companies all over the world lose billions of dollars to hackers. According to Forbes , cyber crime costs will reach $2 trillion by 2019. Believing that business should be safe, REMME has created the perfect passwordless mix of instruments to protect you and your business from cyber attacks. Phishing Brute Force Bucket Brigade Server Breach Keylogging Password breach Password reuse attack REMME solves the following issues: 1. Trusting the centralized certification authority (CA) 2. CA keys being compromised 3. Fake certificate issuance 4. Issuance of “hidden” certificates, trying to intercept and redirect connections Advantages of REMME: 1. There is no centralized database of certificates and keys that could be compromised. 2. There are no technology lockin and API limitations. Easy integration with existing systems. 3. There are no additional fees for different certificates/credentials in different CA. 4. There are no possibilities for collusion between software/hardware vendors and limited count of CAs. 5. Fast and protected public key distribution process. 6. Fast and protected certificate revocation process. 7. Single point of trust for different systems: easy single-sign-on implementation, decentralized worldwide available authorization. 8. There are no legal limitations and government cooperation issues. What is our verdict? This is a very interesting take on a exisitng solution. We will be keen to seewhere they take this model and solution.

Starts in 12 days 23 hours

2018-02-13 – 2018-03-13

Token
REM
Price
1 REM = 0.04 USD
Bonus
Available
Platform
Soft cap
480,000 USD (pre-sale)
Hard cap
20,000,000 USD (including $3M pre-sale)

Website: https://remme.io/#remme-overview

Whitepaper: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1jTRGmj_3khUV9RTERnYzNvaE0/view

Technical Analysis Research

The current top ten coins by market cap (as of today):

  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Ripple
  • Bitcoin Cash
  • Cardano
  • XLM
  • NEO
  • Litecoin
  • EOS
  • NEM

It is death by 1000 cuts. Every day we apppear to be heading higher, and once more the hopes are dashed with another “lower low.” ALl of the dip buyers trying to nibble at the lows are keeping the market from achieving any velocity; these weak hands have to be purged again and again before we’ll see a good build.

The main charts that we like at this current time (WTC, ICX, NEO, ETH) look very good but they will likely not take off until the rest of the market ceases being an anchor. I actually like the news cycle now; we’re getting story after story that appears to be the death knell of Crypto (like FB news today) and this is perfect to hammer out a bottom.

We had an excellent class this past weekend, Introduction to CryptoCurrency Trading. (Click here for more information and to sign up) This class is really targeted at the Crypto investor who wants to get moving but is somewhat uncertain about what they should do, and how to go about it. Another great candidate would be the recent investor who bought in at the top and is unsure of their actions. While you can’t attend the live class and the Q&A any more, the content is all there and we give you the slide download as well.

I am going to stick with the current list of holds and will not go into “swing” mode until we get a release off the bottom. If we see any coin showing particular strength I’ll detail a short-term swing.

I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know. You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc. Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

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