Doc's Daily Commentary

Mind Of Mav

The FOMO Market

As we’ve discussed in the recent weeks, there is a massive gap between the stock market and the economy. Listen to any financial commentator and you’ll come to the conclusion that either the stock market is too high, or the economic outlook is too low. One or both must be wrong.

To drive home this point, last week the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) — a group of 36 countries — issued its forecast for the United States through 2021. You can probably guess it wasn’t rosy. Acknowledging that much depends on the severity of the coronavirus, the OECD report constructs two scenarios: one that might be termed “pessimistic” and a second that is “more pessimistic.”

Under the former “pessimistic” assumptions, the unemployment rate is projected at 11.3% at the end of 2020 and the economy (gross domestic product) falls 7.3% for the year. Both the unemployment rate and the GDP decline are larger than in any previous post-World War II recession. By way of comparison, the peak monthly jobless rate in the Great Recession of 2007-2009 was 10%.

And what’s the “more pessimistic” forecast say? It rightly assumes that there is a second wave of coronavirus cases. This delays the economy’s recovery and results in more deaths. In the “double-hit” scenario, the year-end unemployment rate is 12.9%, and the GDP drops by 8.5%. “The recession risks leaving behind a long-lasting negative economic impact,” the OECD warns. “Policies are needed . . . to help workers and businesses avoid scarring effects and fully recover from the crisis.”

Ah! But these economists are paid to make numbers look scary!

After all, if the stock market is more of a reflection of uncertainty that the economy itself, then GDP decline for 2020 at 5.9% and year-end unemployment at 10.5% can be confidently priced in. Even with a second wave, the market still reacts more to what Trump tweets than the latest case numbers or deaths.

In a sense, the populace (and the market) have become numb to the initial shock that sent the world into panic in February and March. Even if the market is overvalued by all standard measures, we are certainly not living in standard times.

Based on the determination that we will eventually overcome the pandemic, the market has all the justification it needs to push tech stocks like Tesla to $1800 — when it was trading for only $200 a year ago.

We can easily draw parallels to the crypto bubble of 2017 or the dotcom bubble. But here’s the critical difference that today’s bubble shows:

Once the Fed made clear its determination to foster recovery, “FOMO” — fear of missing out — took over, says Shiller. What happens now is anyone’s guess.


“The stock market and the economy have parted ways,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “I’m not sure what will trigger a sustained sell-off in stocks, but surging [virus] infections and another round of more business closures will be difficult for investors to ignore much longer.”

There are other theories of the market’s disconnect from the real economy. One is the rise of computer-driven trading. Another is the role played by younger traders. Having less market experience than their elders, they may be less risk-averse.

Who knows? The stakes are huge, politically and economically. If the market keeps or increases its value, it could bolster the recovery and Trump’s prospects. And, of course, if the market loses value, it will almost certainly hurt the recovery and help Biden.

As always, the market is caught between fear and greed.

At the extremes of that scales we find FOMO — either to get on the train, or to jump off it.

Time will tell how long this FOMO market, and its bubble, will last.

And how big it gets.


The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)


Add your vote to the V3 Portfolio (Phase 3) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 2) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 1) by clicking here.

Read the V3 Portfolio guide by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as

The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

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The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)


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Read about building Crypto Portfolio Diversity by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN
DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:



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