Doc's Daily Commentary

Mind Of Mav

Predicting The Future Isn’t As Hard As It Seems Part 2

Looking ahead is a tricky thing.

Yesterday we talked in length about how we can plot the Business Confidence Index (PMI) or the Consumer Confidence Index against GDP Growth to create an accurate view of economic factors from which we can extrapolate future economic trends.

But, importantly, we only create a view — to get a truly accurate prediction of what is to come, we need to determine a trend

So, today we’ll dig into the data and draw some conclusions.

First off, here’s the bread-and-butter formula that will help us determine the rate of change between our data points as a percentage:

Rate Of Change% = ((NEW – OLD) / OLD) * 100

So, if we know the PMI for this month, and the PMI for last month, then we can easily calculate the month over month (MoM) rate to determine if it’s moving up or down. With two points of data, we can determine a trend, and that’s why it’s so much more powerful than looking at a single point.

To make this calculation easier, I went ahead and wrote some code to organize it for you.

In the ReadySetCrypto Discord, you can use our computation bot to get the Month Over Month (MoM) & Year Over Year (YoY) rates easily.


Here’s the command structure:

!pmi <Latest Reading> <Last Month’s Reading> <Last Year’s Reading> <US or EU or CN or CON>


As an example, I’ll look at the US ISM for May 2020.

US ISM Data: 

US ISM Latest Reading 05/2020: 41.5

US ISM Last Month’s Reading 04/2020: 49.1

US ISM Last Year’s Reading 05/2019: 52.3


Start by typing the command:


Then the latest PMI reading:

US ISM Latest Reading 05/2020:


Then the previous month PMI reading:

US ISM Last Month’s Reading 04/2020:


Then the PMI reading a year prior to your first reading:

US ISM Last Year’s Reading 05/2019:


Finally, denote your index based on the economy. US, EU, and CN are possible, as well as CON for consumer sentiment.


Put it all together and this is what you would have:

!pmi 41.5 49.1 52.3 US

Putting that anywhere in the ReadySetCrypto Discord would output the following:

Nice and simple!

Here are similar calculations for the Euro Area, China, and Consumer Sentiment using May 2020 data:


ESI Data: 

ESI Latest Reading 05/2020: 33.6 ESI

Last Month’s Reading 04/2020: 44.5

ESI Last Year’s Reading 05/2019: 47.6

!pmi 33.6 44.5 47.6 EU

Caixin Data: 

China Caixin Latest Reading 05/2020: 49.4

China Caixin Last Month’s Reading 04/2020: 50.1

China Caixin Last Year’s Reading 05/2019: 49.4

!pmi 49.4 50.1 49.4 CN

UMCS Data: 

UMCS Latest Reading 05/2020: 71.8

Last Month’s Reading 04/2020: 89.2

UMCS Last Year’s Reading 05/2019: 98.2

!pmi 71.8 89.2 98.2 CON

If you’d like to use the code I wrote for this, feel free to fork the repo I uploaded with it over at the ReadySetCrypto public GitHub:



So, what can we draw from all of this?

Well, when you pair an abysmal negative GDP forecast with the sharpest rate-of-change declines on record, the economy will likely fall into a deep depression, the deepest we’ve ever seen.

Yes, that’s obvious, but it precipitates a huge bullish-to-bearish reversal in consumer and business sentiment — also explaining the rapid decline in the stock market and the corporate bond market plus the huge rally in sovereign bonds from mid-February to early-March.

That schism is key. Economics seeks balance, and the imbalance in markets and economies will play a crucial role in the days ahead.

Acting upon that, the bond market, currency market, and commodity market continue to price in the next depression while stocks advance pricing in a quick recovery. If the economy reopens and economic growth fails to improve, or we get a second wave, the stock market may plunge again, retesting the March lows as reality kicks in that even bullish tech stocks can’t fix a broken economy.

But, now you have an easy way to track global growth, you’ll have a solid idea of where markets will go in the months and years ahead.

When you’re ready to take it to the next level, you can always build a more advanced model.

Replicate this process and you’ll still be able to predict global economic sentiment with even better accuracy, allowing you to not only help you to make better investment decisions but also make better decisions in life.

The future favors the prepared.

The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)


Add your vote to the V3 Portfolio (Phase 3) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 2) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 1) by clicking here.

Read the V3 Portfolio guide by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as

The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

Move Your Mouse Over Charts Below For More Information

The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)


Add your vote to the V4 Portfolio by clicking here.

Read about building Crypto Portfolio Diversity by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN
DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:



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