Why This Bull Cycle is Different

The current bull market has been in place since the first day of 2023, although it was not apparent until the late 2023 breakout that put in a definitive “higher low” on the weekly chart. 

And as of today, we have a new all-time high in Bitcoin, as well as several other crypto assets. How long will this last, and how deep will the corrections be when they arrive? 

OF course we’ll never know those questions for certain, but this bull has been remarkable in how different that it is already. 

First off, we’ve never seen a bull cycle hit new highs before the Bitcoin halving. The current halving is a few weeks away yet. 

Second, the corrective pullbacks in this bull cycle have been very muted, which is explained by having a very deep liquidity pool below the current price. Let’s compare the pullbacks/corrective moves between the current bull run, and previous ones: 

• 2010 – 2011: maximum drawdown 51.28%, average drawdown 18.41%
• 2012 – 2014: maximum drawdown 70.28%, average drawdown 21.71%
• 2015-2018: maximum drawdown 32.93%, average drawdown 10.93%
• 2018-2021: maximum drawdown 60.24%, average drawdown 19.39%
• Current 2023: maximum drawdown 19.11%, average drawdown 5.47%

Quite a world of difference! There is obviously a demand floor below the current price keeping asset prices much more stable in the 14+ months of this current run. 

The average bull run has been about three years lately, so we might have runway to the end of 2025 at the current rate. Along the way we’ll certainly see corrections, but they might be more muted than those in the past.