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March 12, 2018

 

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Crypto Market Commentary

#CRAEFULGANG

Oh look at that, the market is down again

 

The is the second week in a row where we’ve had a positive Sunday followed by a dump on Monday.

 

While there may be a few outliers we could point to, the primary culprit to us is the continued lack of volume. We nearly broke into the 12B USD / Day range, which is equivalent to the volume we were seeing in late November, as well as the total market cap.

 

Even with that said, there are a few Bullish stories to discuss today.

 

First, the crypto community is celebrating that the Japanese Mt.Gox trustee will no longer be selling his large amount of Bitcoin or Bitcoin Cash until September at the latest. While we are adamant that his total sales of 35,000 BTC over the past 3 months has had an insignificant impact on the market, the market mentality is very susceptible to the notion of “whales” controlling the price.

 

What’s compelling to us is that during the dip over the past three months it’s not important who’s selling Bitcoin, it’s more important to know who’s buying.

According to data collected from Bitinfocharts.com most of the 100 richest BTC addresses haven’t lost any money during the last 65 percent dip — In fact, their stacks of BTC increased exponentially.

What’s interesting is that if you hold more than 0.153 BTC, you’re in the top 30% of all Bitcoin holders, and if you have 15 BTC, you’re in the top 1%.

So, one of the consequences of this bear market is that the top Bitcoin holders have increased their stacks and as the saying goes, the rich get richer. But that’s not the only story here. It’s very likely that the same pattern has happened with every other major cryptocurrency — the top holders of Ethereum and Litecoin and NEO and Monero all saw this as an opportunity and used it as a chance to increase their holdings because they know the market is just as likely to retest previous highs than languish into obscurity.

 

One of the best ways that will occur is a return to public awareness and an increase in public understanding. While retail investors will certainly follow institutional investors should the government clear the way for them, people who had never invested before were interested in Bitcoin and crypto back in December and that was a very remarkable occurrence.

 

For example, yesterday HBO’s Last Week Tonight featured Cryptocurrencies as their main story. In it, John Oliver was able to provide a rather succinct, if somewhat shallow, description of cryptocurrencies and the current investment landscape. He was quick to point out that the technology has promise, but examples such as Bitconnect and EOS warrant responsibility in your decision making.

While we disagree with his assessment that investing in cryptocurrencies is not investing but is strictly gambling (would you have described investing in the DotCom Bubble as investing or gambling?), there were many good points made and he did a good job toeing the line between Bullish and Bearish. Most importantly, Oliver’s audience is nationwide and worldwide and will no doubt bring renewed interest in this space.

 

One of our favorite fiat to crypto exchanges, Gemini, is looking to add Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. Headed by the WinkleVoss twins of Facebook fame, they claim that the most obvious additions to their roster of offerings “are from the Satoshi Nakamoto family tree – Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin.”

 

What’s interesting is this is not only a good move for the Coinbase alternative, but has implications for its partner in Bitcoin Futures, CBOE Global Markets Inc., which is interested in adding additional futures contracts for cryptocurrencies but will need Gemini’s assistance to accomplish this.

 

The WinkleVii also made comments applauding last week’s moves by the SEC regarding US based cryptocurrency exchanges and how they must register in order to remain in good standing with the law. Both Gemini and Coinbase are located within the US, and are many times more secure than previous iterations of cryptocurrency exchanges, such as the infamous Mt.Gox. Both have FDIC insurance, which will cover your investment up to $250,000 if you are a U.S. Citizen.  

 

An additional interesting article we found is if you live in the US, you can look at your state’s governing laws here: https://bitcoincenternyc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-blockchain-cryptocurrency-laws-50-states/

 

These may be subject to change as the SEC and other Federal governing institutions decide what to do what crypto at a Federal level.

 

Last up for today is the announcement that South Korean officials will once again allow the use of ICOs with new regulations. According to Korea Times, “The financial authorities are preparing a plan to allow initial coin offerings (ICOs), digital token-based fundraising rounds, for domestic investors, to advance blockchain-based technologies, according to sources familiar with the issue.
‘The financial authorities have been talking to the country’s tax agency, justice ministry and other relevant government offices about a plan to allow ICOs in Korea when certain conditions are met.’”

 

While not official yet, what will likely change is that ICOs will involve local banks, the justice and finance ministries, and the tax agency to create transparency. While the regulation will need to be fleshed out, we believe this is another indicator that South Korea is becoming one of the most forward-thinking and crypto-friendly nations in the developed world. It is our hope that the example they set is a model for other countries looking to regulate cryptocurrency in the future.

 

Have a great week.

On Wednesday we’ll be making available our next premium class, “How To Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency: Intro To Fundamental Analysis”, which will be a comprehensive guide on how Mav finds his picks, evaluates coins, assesses ICOs, and builds a portfolio of solid coins that aim to be strong performers. As a primer, we’re offering a FREE one hour webinar on Wednesday where Mav will walk through each of the steps he uses to evaluate coins! Be sure to sign up even if you can’t make it — we’ll email you the recording!

To sign up for Wednesday Evenings 8pm ET (New York) webinar, please visit this link. If you cannot attend the webinar, we’ll record and archive the replay for you to watch later.

Have a great weekend everyone.  

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • Expanded TRAC position.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

Current Portfolio

Desired Holdings

How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

None.

Tier 3

TRAC

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

ICX

BIX

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

ReadySetCrypto’s 7 Categories Of CryptoCurrency

Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.   

NEO

NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:

  • An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
  • A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
  • SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
  • Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.

NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.  

WaltonChain

WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:

  • A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
  • They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.

Ethereum

Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.

OmiseGO

OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.

Tier 2 coins are those coins which have performed extremely well, we have a large amount of assets with, and we believe will continue to operate with high marks. What separates these coins from our Tier 1 status is a flaw or they haven’t yet proven their defining feature, though we believe they will.

NAVCoin

NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:

  • The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.  
  • The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.

Ripple

Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.

  • Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
  • National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
  • XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.

 

Tier 3 coins are those coins which we have moderate investments and we believe have a possibility of high performance in the future, but as of yet have not shown enough performance to reduce their risk profile. Tier 3 coins are coins which are moderately risky, but due to our risk analysis of the project and team we believe have minimal chance of failure.   
Tier 4 coins are coins which we have minimal stake in, are highly risky, and we are contributing no more than 2% of our portfolio to. These coins represent the outer fringe of our risk analysis, in that we have little information to work with, have little insight into the coin’s performance, and at the very best we are making an educated guess that they will be successful. If a coin performs well and proves that it has a commitment to its compelling feature, it will be moved to the Tier 3 status.  

 

ICON

Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows

  • Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
  • Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
  • Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.

 

Fundamental Currency Research

Coinbase has announced that it is launching a weighted index fund for cryptocurrencies. This is not a big surprise given their increasing interest in legitimizing the crypto space and growing focus on  positioning themselves as a formidable player in the asset management services market.

 

Most people invest in funds than individual assets, so it’s inevitable that we’ll see a rise of those offerings for crypto: “Privacy fund”, “Supply chain fund”, “Platform fund”, etc.

As an alternative, Iconomi offers their DAAs (https://www.iconomi.net/arrays . . . not available to US citizens, unfortunately), which are similar to mutual funds.

 

Both are recalculated dynamically. With Iconomi, you invest by buying their ICN token and using that to invest in the funds. With Coinbase Index (CBI), you make a minimum deposit of $10,000 and it’s allocated:

 

Bitcoin 61.62%

Ethereum 26.99%

Bitcoin Cash 7.39%

Litecoin 4.0%

 

What’s very interesting to me is in their methodology for recalculation.

If you look at the variable Q, they’re recalculating CBI based on the dynamic number of units for each underlying asset.

 

What this means is that investors who passively hold digital assets will notice that, over time, the USD value of their holdings actually decreases relative to the USD total market capitalization of the asset. This is a natural result of the ongoing supply increases. Because CBI is based on total market capitalization, a passive investment in its constituent assets will also fall short of the CBI level over time.

 

Now, the real question is if the value of Q being dynamically generated causes the CBI to yield returns greater than or equal to the 2% management fee and the fact that you have no possession of the underlying assets (which would be true with any index fund).

 

As it stands, I just think this is crypto with training wheels for people who don’t want to dirty their hands managing their assets. While they will eventually open up the CBI to all investors, I would recommend simply building a portfolio by buying the assets themselves. You could even allocate in the same way Coinbase has if you’d like.

 

With a 2% management fee, this will be a cash cow for Coinbase as they don’t have to sell you the underlying asset.

 

This is all the more evident when you consider they only perform reconstitution when a new asset is added (Coinbase only has 4 assets, so that’s not going to be very often going off their track record):

Furthermore, they only rebalance once per annum, which is frankly insufficient for a 2% fee and a space as volatile as crypto: “Coinbase Index Fund will invest in assets in proportion to their relative market capitalizations and rebalance annually on January 1st.”

 

One more important note is that because the CBI is so small and dominated by BTC (which in turn dominates the market), the index fund’s performance will be almost identical to Bitcoin’s. We feel that the whole point to having an index fund is to add assets which can hedge against other assets within the index. In the CBI there is no such hedge as Bitcoin will control the price.

 

I looked around a little and found another index fund that only has a 0.75% fee and dynamically tracks the top 20, which has done pretty well:

 

https://medium.crypto20.com/introducing-invictus-capital-b45651369b3

We are expanding our stack of TRAC in anticipation of masternode announcements later this month, in addition to a very positive flow of announcements and partnerships that have been coming out of one of our favorite new holdings.

 

In particular, they’ve been putting out very professional content very recently. They published an article regarding integration of data from Forensic Labs, they announced the new version of their data holder node, and while technically not by them this article describing their off-chain solution as it relates to GS1 standard barcodes was fascinating to us.

Delta, the portfolio tracking application, just announced version 1.6 for iOS & Android is out & they now support Exchange Account (API) Connections, Transfers & BNB Fees. While Blockfolio is our favorite portfolio tracking application, it’s clear to us that Delta has the features and the growing support that will quickly make it #1. They also have an online application, which lets the compete with our favorite online application, Coinloop.

 

We’ve added a new section under our current holdings portfolio that shows the coins we’re targeting for entry or re-entry and what price we’re looking to get into them for. This should help you gauge when we’d like to re-enter or a coin or not, and should also help you see the coins that are on our radar but we just haven’t see the right price for yet.

 

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Celsius

For flipping Neutral.

For long-term holding Good.

What is it? 

For crypto to continue to spread and gain traction we’ve got to bring the next 100m people into the crypto community. In order to do that, real products built by real teams have to provide real utility to the public. We’re building Celsius to bring a new wave of financial products to the market designed, for the first time, to always do what’s in the best interest of its members instead of trying to make as much profit as possible. Members will be able to borrow USD against their crypto holdings in their wallet which will be used as collateral. Our goal is to allow anyone who’s in need of cash to easily borrow from the Celsius platform without having to sell their crypto holdings. In the future, through the Celsius Network, cryptocurrencies deposited by members into their Celsius Wallet will be available on the network for immediate borrowing and shorting.

 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: Some of the best ideas we’ve seen in a lending platform that will be very attractive to lendors and lendees.

What we don’t like: Lending is still a tricky sector that no one has truly nailed yet. PoS is where the general shift in crypto is going so CEL will have to keep up.

 

23 hours left (PREICO)

  • Project name: Celsius
  • Token symbol: CEL
  • Website: https://celsius.network/
  • White paper: https://celsius.network/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/WHITEPAPER.pdf
  • Hard cap: $50 million (ICO Participants receive 50% of total token supply)
  • Conversion rate: 1 CEL= $0.30
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $100 million
  • Bonus structure: Pre-sale price = $0.20 per CEL, additionally: 0 – $5 mil 40% bonus (sold out) / $5 mil – $10 mil = 35% bonus (sold out) /
    $10 mil – $15 mil = 30% bonus (sold out) / $15 mil – $35 mil = 20% bonus / $35 mil+ = $0.20 per CEL
  • Presale or white list: Presale ongoing, whitelist open
  • ERC20 token: Yes (initially, will move to its own Stellar-forked blockchain in future)
  • Countries excluded: Must be accredited investor for USA
  • Timeline: Pre-sale ending & crowdsale starting March 15, 2018 (Please refer to Celsius Network’s website for the most up-to-date information)
  • Token distribution date: Within two weeks after end of crowdsale

Website: https://celsius.network/

Whitepaper: https://celsius.network/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/WHITEPAPER.pdf

Technical Analysis Research

One positive piece of news is that the Mt. Gox “Whale” has stopped selling Bitcoin at least until this fall; this was a $400MM share of overhead supply that’s been overhanging the market for the past several weeks. While that’s just a small fraction of the $153Bn market cap of Bitcoin, the balance between supply and demand can be very fragile and constant overhead supply means that prices can only tread water if those “sell” orders are not covering higher. 

Volume is starting to pick up again as we see more “sell to close” orders near the bottom, and aggressive longs pick up that inventory. We are not yet seeing bottoming signals, but in today’s video I’ll discuss what needs to occur for the reversal to show.

 

Mav will be announcing his next class this week, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency.” and he’ll talk about it this Wednesday at 8pm ET (New York time)

To sign up for Wednesday night’s webinar please visit this link.

 

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the $59 street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

With overall crypto markets in a dull corrective market, I’ll continue to focus more on the larger cap coins until they break loose, then it will be a better market for alt-coins. Moves are not sustaining right now.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

 

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I will also be experimenting with the Profit Trailer app which might be useful in this choppy market. I hope to share results and tips/tricks with you in here once I get this bot up and running.

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