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March 17, 2018

 

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Crypto Market Commentary

Happy St.Bitcoin Day!

Week in Review

 

 

It’s been another wild week in the Wild West that is Crypto.

Bitcoin’s development made a major leap forward with the first beta release of the much anticipated Lightning Network protocol. Lightning has some serious backing, with 2.5 million having been raised so far.

 

Meanwhile, regulation headlines have continued to dominate the airwaves. The U.S. Federal Government held hearings to further explore ICOs and cryptocurrency, and the Dutch Finance Minister released a letter detailing how legislators should approach ICOs and cryptocurrencies.

 

A very worrisome event that sent the crypto market into another freefall was the act of Google banning crypto-related advertisements. Our reaction is that this is actually a very good move as it clears out a lot of the negative advertising giving crypto a bad name and hurting new investors, while also clearing the way for Google to introduce their own cryptocurrency.

 

It’s not all bad or worrisome, however. A New York state assemblyman has introduced a bill to protect cryptocurrency investors while easing regulation for crypto-related businesses.

 

Overall, the market is certainly establishing the second bottom for this year. We’re hopeful that this will be enough to wash out all of those still trying to hold on, but it still might be some time before we see a true recovery with all of the panic surrounding regulation.

 

We have to stress that this upcoming week is going to be very interesting for cryptocurrencies.

 

Most important on our minds is the G20 Summit beginning on the 20th.

 

The G20 (or G-20 or Group of Twenty) is an international forum for the governments and central bank governors from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union.

 

Of them, the governments that have expressed support or optimism are the minority, and we should always be skeptical of the views of Central Banks.  

 

This document indicates that the discussions will revolve around the implications of crypto and the potential applications of its technology.

“The issue is an important item on the meeting agenda; delegates will consider a common response that would mitigate the risks without discouraging innovation,” it argues.

The document notes that blockchain “has the potential to promote financial inclusion.” However, it goes on to argue that “it is important to analyze its implications to financial stability, tax evasion and financial illegal activities.”

 

It’s our belief that they’re worried crypto will limit their citizen’s income and savings as a hyperinflation cushion during a possible economic crisis (according to every pundit on CNBC we’re overdue for another recession). China in particular is going to write regulations to be able to have an emergency brake on cryptocurrency exchanges. This is what they already do in order to freeze stocks during a crisis, such as the 2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence.

 

Bitcoin was created in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Satoshi said he had spent more than a year writing the software, driven in part by anger over the recent financial crisis. Bitcoin’s early success could in some part be attributed to those suspicious or disgusted with the system that allowed everything to fall apart. Since 2008 we have not had a major crisis, at least not in the West. Our financial system, based heavily on fractional reserve and the Fed’s quantitative easing, still hasn’t been called out on its bluff. In fact, the stock market was hitting all time highs until January despite nervousness growing.

 

While unlikely, any positive outcomes from the summit are likely to give the crypto market an adrenaline boost. What’s more like is the majority of the G20 members are going to express concern, doubt, or the need for stringent regulation. While nothing official or lasting is going to come out of the meeting, the market is likely already pricing in the fear that this week will be another panic inducing event.

 

Needles to say, we’re anticipating this to be another wild ride in the market.

 

Talk to you this week.

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • Entered NANO position.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • Exited MOD position.

Current Portfolio

Desired Holdings

How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 3

NANO

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

ReadySetCrypto’s 7 Categories Of CryptoCurrency

Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.   

NEO

NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:

  • An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
  • A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
  • SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
  • Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.

NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.  

WaltonChain

WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:

  • A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
  • They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.

Ethereum

Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.

OmiseGO

OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.

Tier 2 coins are those coins which have performed extremely well, we have a large amount of assets with, and we believe will continue to operate with high marks. What separates these coins from our Tier 1 status is a flaw or they haven’t yet proven their defining feature, though we believe they will.

 

NAVCoin

NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:

  • The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.  
  • The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.

Ripple

Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.

  • Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
  • National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
  • XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.

Tier 3 coins are those coins which we have moderate investments and we believe have a possibility of high performance in the future, but as of yet have not shown enough performance to reduce their risk profile. Tier 3 coins are coins which are moderately risky, but due to our risk analysis of the project and team we believe have minimal chance of failure. 

Tier 4 coins are coins which we have minimal stake in, are highly risky, and we are contributing no more than 2% of our portfolio to. These coins represent the outer fringe of our risk analysis, in that we have little information to work with, have little insight into the coin’s performance, and at the very best we are making an educated guess that they will be successful. If a coin performs well and proves that it has a commitment to its compelling feature, it will be moved to the Tier 3 status.  

 

ICON

Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows

  • Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
  • Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
  • Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.

 

Fundamental Currency Research

According to this document, the Mt.Gox trustee that the community was quick to blame for the market downturn has come out saying that they did not sell their BTC at the same time they moved them, which also was not responsible for crashing the price.

 

 

While nothing is guaranteed, this falls in line with our original assessment: it was overblown and the effects of this had little to do with the market downturn.

 

As we said, the market was simply looking for a scapegoat. The world needs narratives, even if they’re false narratives.

 

What we constantly stress is that you need to be a professional skeptic in this market as the market is being heavily manipulated.

 

Case in point, this is what a manipulated market looks like:

Everything is on sale!

 

We’ve hit our stop of our Tier 2 Modum ($MOD) position. While this is unfortunate, we could see this coming as MOD has not been as hot as it once was. This is not to say it’s a bad project or we’ve lost interest, quite the opposite. We are targeting it for re-entry. Community members are speculating there’s an upcoming partnership announcement coming late March / early April, but at this point it’s speculation.

 

We’ve re-entered Nano as it hit the target price we were looking for. We anticipate it will continue to fall, and despite our entry with no stop, we do anticipate that it will consolidate soon. It has been one of the best and worst performing assets in the past two months, flying up to $16 after we got out at $8 and now back down to $7. We like the potential of betting on non-blockchain based projects as it lets us diversify our tech bet. As such, we see Nano as one of the best bets in this emerging sector.

 

One last point to discuss today is why there hasn’t been many announcement from crypto projects as of late. We believe this is intentional, as no project wants to make a major announcement while the market is at the all time low for the year. Thus, we think this is adding to the “coiling” effect of the spring that is the market right now. When thee market rebounds, projects will see that as the proper time to announce large updates, partnerships, features, and other positive notes. Optimism begets optimism.

 

If you missed my webinar on Fundamental Analysis, give it a watch here!:

 

 

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

 

 

SKYFchain

For flipping Neutral.

For long-term holding Good.

What is it? 

SKYFchain is the first B2R (Business-to-Robots) blockchain based operating platform. This private blockchain system provides independent secure data-exchange and payment channels for a total support of robot – centric logistics. The SKYFChain Operating Platform will based on private blockhain. It will use ERC20 compatible protocol for SKYFT tokens and build payment channels for exchange transactions. SKYFchain is unique because it will be designed to exclude the human as an intermediary and it will have access to confirmed clients of the first industrial heavy duty cargo drone – the SKYF drone, which is already flying. Technically, the main purpose of the SKYFchain is to integrate critical information for all market participants and organize execution of smart-contracts for transactions. SKYFchain aims to create the whole new industry of airborne cargo drones and later invite groundborne and sea-borne cargo robots for the new business opportunities.

 

 

 

 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: A very futuristic project that could have potential if the team can meet what they’re promising.

What we don’t like: Still not entirely clear if the blockchain use case is solid, and the whitepaper needs to be cleaned up.

 

89 days (ICO)

Token
SKYFT
Price
1 SKYFT = 0.065 USD
Bonus
Available
Bounty
Platform
Ethereum
Accepting
ETH, BTC
Minimum investment
3000 SKYFT
Soft cap
5000000 USD
Hard cap
30000000 USD
Country
Estonia
Whitelist/KYC
Whitelist

Website: https://www.skyfchain.io/

Whitepaper: https://fpivc.app.box.com/v/SKYFchainWhitePaper

Technical Analysis Research

Crypto has seen worse days in its past; BTC went through a couple of bear markets between 2013 to 2105 that were enough to shake out everyone but the strongest HODL’ers:

  • April 2013 – July 2013: 73% in 3 months
  • November 2013 – January 2015: 85.5% in 14 months

I think that the latter version is more significant for us because it featured an eventual double-bottom pattern that took another seven months to re-test the bottom established in early 2105…so it was more like a 21 month correction. Again, what is so impressive to me is how “pure” all of the price patterns are, with no distortion from money printing nor governmental buybacks.

 

In today’s report I’ll compare the current bear (69.9% over 4 months so far) to those earlier ones in 2013 – 2015. Crypto has been put in the ground and left for dead several times already, but like Beatrix Kiddo, always finds a way to rise again. Don’t be impatient for this Bear to be over; it must work its magic to convince all of the recent “pikers” that entered at the high to “puke” out their assets and limp back to fiat. We freely admit that many of the thousands of cryptos that have been spawned over the past year will probably not make it over time. All we need are a couple that do, however.

 

Mav has announced and listed his new class this week, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency.” and if you missed his webinar last  Wednesday night, it’s available in the Premium Member’s Area under the “Classes Archive.” It’s also listed for sale under the “STORE” link at the top of our page.

 

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the $59 street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

With overall crypto markets in a dull corrective market, I’ll continue to focus more on the larger cap coins until they break loose, then it will be a better market for alt-coins. Moves are not sustaining right now.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I will also be experimenting with the Profit Trailer app which might be useful in this choppy market. I hope to share results and tips/tricks with you in here once I get this bot up and running.

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