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March 29, 2018

Crypto Market Commentary

Month In Review

Death Cross Brings Out The Bears

The death cross has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We have broken the 276 Billion total market cap bottom to reach a new all-time low for 2018.

Q1 2018 is certainly going out with the opposite of a bang as we’ve had nearly three months of painful days with only minor gains here and there.

Remember, we believe that days like today are necessary to get us back on our feet. Crypto is not going to turn around until the volume comes back, the interest returns, and we have bullish sentiment again.

 

As we’re finishing off March and Q1, let’s discuss some of the trends we’re seeing heading into Q2.

 

First off, we don’t believe this bear market is due to last. While it was caused by unchecked euphoria, nothing fundamental regarding the viability of crypto itself has changed.

 

In fact, we’ve been able to collectively calm down and refocus on the actual impact and use cases. Many of the ICOs that were started in 2017 have already failed, which helps to separate the scam and half-baked ideas from the actual change agents in the space.

 

One of the biggest moving trends external to the space has been the movements of governments. The rhetoric we’re seeing from a lot of sovereign nations is that there’s an appreciation for the new technology and exploring the different possibilities, but at the same time there needs to be consumer protections in place. What has become evident over and over is that no country is willing to outright ban distributed ledger technology, rather they are more intent on controlling exchanges and ICOs they determine are defrauding and scamming individuals.

 

Internal to crypto, there has been a push for more legitimate business practices by the exchanges that tie the crypto community together. Where this is most apparent is the leaders in the space, namely Binance, Bitfinex, and Coinbase. Binance has clearly made customer perception and experience their top priority, showing several times they care about being communicative and doing the right thing. Bitfinex, on the other hand, has sent panic throughout the community as their Tether token has a very real possibility of upsetting the entire house of cards should it prove to be insolvent. Lastly, Coinbase has raked in piles of money but continue to erode the good faith of their users by misplacing their trust. Coinbase is currently at the center of several lawsuits against them, but is still seen as one of the most influential players in crypto. Companies like Binance, Circle, and Robinhood are hot on their heels and will soon offer equivalent or superior services to Coinbase.

 

Lastly, we think there has been a general shift in public perception. To be fair it will take years to convince everyone, except the laggards, that crypto is here to stay. But every time that crypto comes back it comes back stronger and soon will not be ignored by the general masses. Anyone crying out that crypto is dead is completely missing the bigger picture. We’re about the enter the tenth year of the blockchain’s existence, and in that time it has grown exponentially.

 

We’re eager to see how this space and technology progresses in the next ten years.

Talk to you on Monday.

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

Current Portfolio

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

None.

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

ReadySetCrypto’s 7 Categories Of CryptoCurrency

Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.   

NEO

NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:

  • An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
  • A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
  • SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
  • Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.

NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.  

WaltonChain

WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:

  • A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
  • They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.

Ethereum

Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.

OmiseGO

OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.

Tier 2 coins are those coins which have performed extremely well, we have a large amount of assets with, and we believe will continue to operate with high marks. What separates these coins from our Tier 1 status is a flaw or they haven’t yet proven their defining feature, though we believe they will.

NAVCoin

NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:

  • The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.  
  • The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.

Ripple

Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.

  • Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
  • National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
  • XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.

Tier 3 coins are those coins which we have moderate investments and we believe have a possibility of high performance in the future, but as of yet have not shown enough performance to reduce their risk profile. Tier 3 coins are coins which are moderately risky, but due to our risk analysis of the project and team we believe have minimal chance of failure. 
Tier 4 coins are coins which we have minimal stake in, are highly risky, and we are contributing no more than 2% of our portfolio to. These coins represent the outer fringe of our risk analysis, in that we have little information to work with, have little insight into the coin’s performance, and at the very best we are making an educated guess that they will be successful. If a coin performs well and proves that it has a commitment to its compelling feature, it will be moved to the Tier 3 status.  

ICON

Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows

  • Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
  • Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
  • Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.

Fundamental Currency Research

The number of crypto jacking incidents rose by an astronomical 8,500 per cent in the final quarter of 2017, Symantec has revealed. Cryptojacking, for those unaware, is using website visitor’s unused CPU power to mine cryptocurrencies. Most of the time, this is done without the visitor’s knowledge or consent. Symantec’s security response team said: “The barrier to entry for coin mining is pretty low – potentially only requiring a couple of lines of code to operate – and coin mining can allow criminals to fly under the radar in a way that is not possible with other types of cybercrime. Victims may not even realise a coin miner is slurping their computer’s power as the only impact may be a slowdown of their device that they could easily attribute to something else.” Like every controversial issue, this one has two sides. On one end, you have websites that are doing this while the threat is mostly unknown (we promise we’re not one of them!), and then you have other sites using cryptojacking for less malicious intentions. Instead of posting ugly advertisements all over their sites, small ecommerce and blog websites could instead use cryptojacking to sustain themselves. Of course, this could raise legal questions. We look at it similarly to how advertising is done on the web. Some advertisements are clever or blend well with the site they’re on, some are annoying or terribly designed, and some are pop-ups which are universally hated. With cryptojacking, some intentions are better than others, but postulating if it crosses a line is a question for another day, as it’s still too uncommon and so far isn’t hurting much. As far as how to protect yourself from cryptojacking:

 

  • The most straightforward method to prevent coin mining is through installing browser extensions that block cryptojacking, such as No Coin.
  • Don’t fall for phishing – While this won’t prevent the script-injection attacks that oftentimes infect computers and mobile devices with cryptomining scripts, it will help to prevent attacks that leave code on your system via social engineering.
  • Keep web filtering tools updated – Make sure to maintain the most up-to-date versions of your web filtering tool possible. If you do happen to run across a page that is injecting cryptomining scripts, make sure that you report it immediately, and if you’re at a company or organization, make sure your co-workers are blocked from accessing it, too.
  • Maintain your browser extensions – Sometimes attackers are able to use malicious browser extensions, or else they poison legitimate ones, in order to infect you. Stay on top of your extensions, look for any that seem to appear from out of nowhere and always check for updates.

A couple of recent coins people have asked me about:

QASH:

I like the ecosystem they’ve built but I just don’t see them overtaking an exchange like Binance, especially considering atomic swaps invalidate half their unique advantages.

That being said, I’ve seen a lot of murmurs lately about this one so maybe they have magic in a bottle that I’m not seeing. I’m interested to see how the rise of decentralized exchanges is paired with World Book’s vision.

TRAC:

Trac is definitely one of my favorite picks right now. There’s a lot of panic because of their announcement regarding no minimum for masternode and some misinterpreted information regarding losing your coins if you don’t correctly stake, but I think in time people will see what a good project this is and how much passive income you can make.

PHR:

So Phore is certainly an interesting one and I personally really like that it’s a fork of PIVX.

While masternodes are certainly appealing, there are a couple things that I would advise considering:

1. Phore is currently rank 400 by marketcap. All things considered, it’s tiny.
2. The annual income from dividends is $7,400. This means, assuming the price never moved, it would take over 2 years to overtake your cost basis.
3. With a cost of $16,500, I can’t say that locking up 26% of your portfolio into one coin is anything other than a gambling move, especially a microcap. (https://masternodes.pro/stats/phr)

All that being said, I like the direction Phore is going in and how it’s trying to branch out of the saturated privacy coin sector. The setup isn’t too painful and this guide looks to be fairly straightforward, assuming you know how to run some console commands and can figure out a VPS (https://masternodeguides.com/setup-phore-masternode-phr-masternodes/)

I also think your direction toward dividend-yielding coins is a smart one and it’s something we’re doing as well.

WAN:

(Q: Where should I buy in for Wanchain?)

Wanchain’s ICO price was 880 WAN / ETH, which at today’s prices make the ICO price $0.46 / WAN.

So, I generally suggest around 2 – 4x the ICO price as a good buy in for a coin you believe will be rising in the future.

As I mentioned earlier, Wanchain is one of the most hyped ICOs ever (thank Ian Balina for that), so of course, they’re not going to deliver on people’s expectations right out of the gate. That’s why just about every ICO will post a similar pattern coming off their initial exchange listing. A sharp spike in price as people sell their ICO funds, while people FOMO into the position, and then it crashes and then languishes along for awhile.

So, the simple answer is anything between $1 and $2 is a great price if we can nab it, and anything between $2 and $3 is acceptable.

 

We’re building a WaltonChain ($WTC) CPU mining rig for the mainnet release this weekend. Walton will start as a CPU mined coin, and at some point in the future it will switch to being GPU-dominated. The team behind Walton controls both of these things, and it will be an interesting foray into masternode mining for us. We’ll do our best to document the journey. Here’s our parts list for anyone curious: https://pcpartpicker.com/user/Elira/saved/Zjv9WZ

 

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Squeezer

For flipping Neutral.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

Squeezer is a platform that helps software developers build apps easily without tackling the entire blockchain infrastructure. It is also a powerful tool for providing high-quality blockchain software components to large enterprise organizations. Squeezer uses world-class microservices platforms, such as AWS Lambda, Google Functions, and Azure Functions.

 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: Great vision and already have an MVP

What we don’t like: This is an already saturated market

 

Starts in 3 days

 

Token
SQZR
Price
1 SQZR = 0.20 USD
Bonus
Available
Platform
Ethereum
Accepting
BTC, ETH, LTC, Fiat
Minimum investment
100 USD
Soft cap
1 925 000 SQZR
Hard cap
154 000 000 SQZR
Country
Belize
Whitelist/KYC
KYC
Restricted areas
USA

Website: https://tokensale.squeezer.io/

Whitepaper: https://tokensale.squeezer.io/docs/white-paper-final.pdf

Technical Analysis Research

As I write this on Thursday late afternoon, BTC is inching ever-closer to a 200/50dma “Death Cross” and many financial media sites have already started to post it as if it’s done. This might be the last straw for millions of retail customers as the price approaches the early February lows once again. This is creating the “principle of maximum adversity” that I’ve talked about many times, which most retail investors (particularly the ones that bought in December) will assume that there is no recovery from.  The sell-off is pervasive and there is no safe harbor.

 

I’m actually OK with this, because I know that this is just a phase that any Bear must go through. It must get worse before it gets better. In the meantime, I’m going to focus my efforts 100% into shorter-term swing trades that I can detail through our service here. I’ll discuss some of the elements that I’ll be adding to this strategy.

 

If you missed Wednesday evening’s webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.

 

 

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the $59 street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

With overall crypto markets in a dull corrective market, I’ll continue to focus more on the larger cap coins until they break loose, then it will be a better market for alt-coins. Moves are not sustaining right now.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I will also be experimenting with the Profit Trailer app which might be useful in this choppy market. I hope to share results and tips/tricks with you in here once I get this bot up and running.

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