Doc's Daily Commentary

Mind Of Mav

On-Chain Analysis As The Crypto Market Turns Fearful

This week I will try to structure this by breaking down the section into two parts, value and momentum; given that these are the two main types of market participants in BTC. Regarding value, I think this should be broken into two parts as well; short and long-term market participants.

Let’s start with the short term.

Short term we still view the low to mid-30s as value for BTC. 

This is made evident by several factors: with order book confluence across various venues and viewing broader price structure as a range between 30k-60k being the main two.

Bitcoin Analysis

Spot premium regime persists, although starting to retrace a bit after the recent 14% candle BTC had this week.

BTC this week

Also on derivatives, the 3-month spot/futures basis is at 3.89%, showing a lack of euphoria from the derivatives market. Keep in the back of mind the biggest no-brainer buy is if this was to go negative though.


Bitcoin futures Annualised


From a broader standpoint, for someone with a long time horizon, these areas are favourable to begin averaging more heavily. Not at absolute “pico” bottom levels, but not to sound like a broken record from prior letters, in the lower 25th percentile for historical valuations. Dormancy flow, comparing the spending of overall coins relative to yearly trend.

Entity adjusted

MVRV, comparing Bitcoin’s valuation relative to the value “stored” in the network by using the aggregated cost basis of all coins moved on-chain.


Entity adjusted MVRV


Mayer multiple, looking at Bitcoin’s price relative to the 200 days moving average.

Mayer Multiple

HODL waves, showing the amount of supply not moved in “x” amount of time.


HODL waves


Now onto the momentum.

Ultimately I think the main level for BTC to reclaim from a high time frame perspective is 46-47K. 

This is a confluence of several things including general price structure, the yearly open, and short-term holder cost basis; a key price band through the last 5+ years of Bitcoin market history.

Showing some early signs of momentum including flipping the 20 and 50-day moving averages and retesting them now, but rejected at the 100 days and still far from the momentum.

Another momentum indicator I like is the EHMA 180.

BTC attempted to reclaim this over the last few days but has since been lost.

High level on the momentum side: Early signs of attempts to reclaim momentum, but still not there.

Closing Thoughts

The most important part of trading is discipline and patience. So, again, it’s your hard-earned money you’ll be investing, so Do Your Own Research before investing and nothing in this newsletter is financial advice.


The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

Add your vote to the V3 Portfolio (Phase 3) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 2) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 1) by clicking here.

Read the V3 Portfolio guide by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as

The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

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The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)

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What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN
DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:



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