Premium Daily Crypto NewsletterMay 13, 2018
Watch this video to see how to use this newsletter. Click the square in the lower right to expand the view.
Check Out Doc's Trading Book
Have You Read Our Free Ebook?
Crypto Market Commentary
Markets Have A Tumultuous Week
Nothing like a 75 Billion drop over the course of 36 hours to remind us we’re still in a larger downtrend.
This week certainly signaled a reverse in polarity after we’ve had a nearly a month of bullish movement.
We started off with fear in the market after an interview last weekend with Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger who were all very outspoken about their doubt of Bitcoin and Blockchain.
Three billionaires together in a room can certainly move a lot of money with their words alone, and they were very quick to make their opinions on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency known.
As we covered, both Warren and Charlie are heavily invested against the interests the Blockchain movement, and Bill is not the technology genius he’s often portrayed as. All three have a vested financial interest in seeing Blockchain fail, which is ironically bringing more attention to the space the more they talk about it.
As for what really moved prices, clearly this week was dominated in the news cycle by South Korea.
South Korea has become a leader in the blockchain community. As the nation leads the blockchain revolution, neighboring countries are looking into how blockchain technology can best be utilized to further security and efficiency.
A move is being made to officially legalize ICOs in an effort to champion blockchain development and research in the country. Rep. Hong Eui-rak of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea is pushing a bill that will do just that.
But just as fast as crypto is becoming mainstream on the Korean peninsula, it is also perceived as being in a state of fragility.
The latest set of news that influenced the decline for most cryptocurrencies was a reported investigation of South Korean exchange Upbit by the country’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC).
However, it was later revealed that the irregularity being investigated was in regards to liquidity issues. Essentially, the issue involves sharing / pooling liquidity with other exchanges. It seems to be that the regulators did not understand the shared liquidity, hence the reported investigation.
This is very similar to other times we’ve seen reported Korean news crash the market, which then end up being less severe than originally reported. Hopefully in time this market matures to be less susceptible to reported news, but it may be some time before that is the case.
Thankfully, this week we also made strides towards a more mature market.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), is looking to establish its own cryptocurrency exchange. ICE has been in talks with banks and financial institutions to facilitate swap contracts for bitcoin trading, allowing them to buy contracts for bitcoin. Once an exchange user buys one of these contracts, cash changes hands and the corresponding bitcoin would appear in their wallet the next day. The exchange would permit direct bitcoin trading, not futures contracts we’ve seen so far.
Last, we recently learned from the biggest management reshuffle in Facebook’s history the social network’s intentions to develop blockchain technology, though at this time it’s not yet clear what purpose they intend.
David Marcus, the former head of Facebook Messenger, announced this week that he will lead an exploratory blockchain group:
“I’m setting up a small group to explore how to best leverage blockchain across Facebook, starting from scratch.”
As we’ve previously predicted, Facebook would want to implement a blockchain solution to track user payments on and off the platform. This would allow users to pay for services on the platform, such as games, and pay other users. Importantly, this would be done real-time, and not have to go through banks leading to increased transaction costs.
While this week was less than ideal, once again we don’t see that anything fundamentally has changed. Blockchain is still here and primed to change the world. People are still working to make that happen. Simply because the market has gone down does not mean the technology is any less viable.
Make sure that you pencil in this Wednesday evening to your calendar as Doc is giving a free webinar on “Short Term Trading Strategies; Ten Ways to Trade Your Crypto in a Choppy Market.” This one is not to be missed as there are lots of opportunities in today’s market if you know where to find it, and if you know how to trade short-term.
To sign up for this free webinar please visit this link
Talk to you tomorrow.
New to Cryptocurrencies? Check out our archived classes “Intro to Cryptocurrency Trading”, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency: Intro to Fundamental Analysis” and Doc’s new one, “Introduction to Technical Analysis” which are now all available for immediate purchase/viewing in the Premium Member’s Home. View more about them at our online store by CLICKING HERE.
Missed our recent webinar on Wallets and Security? You can listen to it in the Member’s Area or here. The new “Security and Wallets” class is now available in our “Store” at the top of this page, use the coupon below for a $10 discount.
We’ve been nominated for an award! We’d really appreciate if you voted for us here under the “Best Video Production” award! Thanks!
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto
Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.
Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.
NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:
- An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
- A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
- SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
- Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.
NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.
WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:
- A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
- They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.
Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.
OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.
NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:
- The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.
- The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.
Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.
- Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
- National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
- XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.
Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows
- Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
- Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
- Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.
Fundamental Currency Research
In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof. That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:
For flipping Good.
For long-term holding Neutral.
What is it?
Next-generation messaging protocol, using the power of the NEO blockchain. Decentralized, fast and secure.
Relying on third party services for something as critical and personal as email, photos or videos is dangerous.
Companies can be hacked, bankruptcies can happen and users are left at the mercy of a few unknown power-brokers.
For the artists that make amazing videos, games, music and other copyrighted content, giving up a large percentage of your revenue can be very discouraging. Plus content creators usually become locked-in to those centralized platforms with the overhanging danger of arbitrary rule changes cutting their revenues.
Phantasma brings a decentralized content distribution system running on the blockchain,
with strong emphasis on privacy and security.
What is our verdict?
What we like: NEP5, Going after a good niche
What we don’t like: Messaging isn’t exactly the sexiest use of blockchain, and the demo isn’t live for the ICO.
- Token type: NEP-5
- ICO Token Price: 1 SOUL = 0.23 USD
- Fundraising Goal: 10,000,000 USD
- Total Tokens: 100,000,000
- Available for Token Sale: 65%
- Whitelist: YES (SINCE 10 MAY, JOIN )
- Know Your Customer (KYC): YES
- Сan’t participate: CHINA, NORTH KOREA, SYRIA, USA
- Token Issue: WILL BE UNLOCKED INSTANTLY DURING THE CONTRIBUTION PHASE.
A pair of Congressional subcommittees will update their continuing mission on blockchain technology during a hearing tomorrow. Tomorrow’s session will be more narrowly focused compared to a similar hearing held in February. While the February event covered blockchain applications beyond the realm of cryptocurrencies – tomorrow’s hearing will focus on blockchain’s use in supply chain management. A representative for Lamar Smith, the chairman of the House Science Committee, said they will host “experts in intellectual property, cybersecurity, as well as shipping and logistics.” Rep. Roger Marshall, referred back to their past work and said tomorrow’s meeting builds on that: “This hearing will build upon the previous one, which explored the science behind blockchain technology. I know the intent of the hearing is to be informative but look forward to seeing where the discussion will go and the questions my colleagues ask,” he said “The committee has an interest in supply chain risk management (SCRM) through our jurisdiction over the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST, which has worked extensively on SCRM,” press secretary Brandon VerVelde said, adding “This hearing is intended for information-gathering for the committee members. We look forward to learning a lot from the witnesses.” Meanwhile, we just saw EOS move a huge amount of Ethereum, the currency they hosted their ICO with, from their wallets into Bitfinex. This could signal that they intend to dump over 200,000 ETH, or over $150M worth. This could be in response to their upcoming mainnet release, or it could be in response to the SEC hearing on Ethereum today. Whatever the case, such a large dump would certainly have huge implications on the larger market. On Sunday, HBO’s popular comedy “Silicon Valley” had an episode which dealt with cryptocurrencies. While cryptocurrencies, and more specifically ICOs, weren’t portrayed in the best light, we think this is a great way to get people talking about crypto. Check out this humorous scene from the show:
WATCH: Pied Piper's Bertram Gilfoyle talks (rants) to @EmilyChangTV about the company's recent ICO and his opinion of banks, paper money and VCs (he's not a fan).
— Tech At Bloomberg (@TechAtBloomberg) May 7, 2018
Technical Analysis Research
The market “proxy” BTC saw a nasty drop Thursday/Friday from about 9346 to 8250…about an 1100 point drop or about 11.8% in just over 24 hours. We’ve become used to this massive volatility, especially since the Bear began in December. I have pointed out the past two weeks that even though the rally in April off the bottom has been nice, the larger timeframes are still in control until proven otherwise.
While this might sound somewhat draconian, I still believe that the most positive outcome is for the price to print a significant “higher low” on the weekly chart, which will involve a very “scary” drop in price, to the point where people write off the market. We might almost be there, based on the number of references of “REKT” that I see out in Twitter.
While there ARE some instances of alt-coins popping off to the upside lately, (ONT, ZIL, etc) these has been more the exception than the rule, and are definitely counter-trend. It’s great if we can catch these, but they will be short-term and will not last if going against the overall market.
Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below:
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC. Doing just fine.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the $59 street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know. You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.