Could an ETH ETF Get Surprise SEC Approval?

Despite skepticism from many crypto analysts and the broader community regarding the approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some analysts suggest that “there is room for surprise.”

“If by some chance the SEC decides to approve, then so many will be caught severely offside,” crypto trader Matthew Hyland told his 142,000 followers on X in a May 17 post. He added, “If 90% of people think the ETH ETF will be denied, and the majority of those people think it will lead to a crypto crash, then who will actually be selling?” Hyland believes that the expectation of denial is “priced in.” As of the publication, Ether is trading at $3,102, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has placed the odds of approval at 35%, while the broader crypto community estimates are closer to 7%, according to New York-based crypto predictions platform Polymarket.

Meanwhile, David Han, an institutional research analyst at Coinbase, believes “there is room for surprise to the upside on this decision.” In Coinbase’s monthly outlook report published on May 15, Han stated, “We believe the odds of approval are closer to 30-40%.”

Han explained that as cryptocurrency becomes a more prominent issue for voters in the lead-up to the upcoming November United States presidential election, the SEC may be less likely to maintain its stance on denial. “As crypto begins to take form as an election issue, it’s also less certain in our view that the SEC would be willing to front the political capital necessary to support a denial,” he said.

Han further argued that even if the VanEck and ARK Invest ETF applications are denied by the initial deadline of May 23, there is a strong possibility that litigation could overturn that decision.