Premium Daily Crypto NewsletterMay 20, 2018
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Crypto Market Commentary
Week In Review
Consensus On Consensus
Mav is finally back from NYC and things should be moving along at a normal pace again. Thanks for your patience.
The market this week was relatively flat.
This is largely the result of failed expectations of investors regarding Consensus and NYC Blockchain week. The false hope was that this week would stimulate positive growth in the market as it has in the past. However, the consensus on Consensus was less than forgiving, and the market expressed its dissatisfaction. Perhaps this is another example of “sell the news”, but most of the disgust is due to the “lack” of a positive catalyst.
I’m glad I went, however, as I had a very different experience. What I saw convinced me that institutional investors and the massive capital reserves they command are coming to crypto.
While it was clear there is still a lot of red tape to sift through, both in the US and China, crypto will be cleared as a new asset class and will represent one of the hottest new sectors out there.
But the pace of that regulation is certainly getting the market frustrated. Don’t fall for that trap. Always look to the bigger picture.
It’s unfortunate that the negative perception of Consensus soured this week’s market. As a demonstration of how bearish this market is right now, I will all the “good” news that occured this week to demonstrate
- Coinbase talked to US regulators about the possibility of obtaining banking licenses. They met with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in early 2018. A Coinbase spokeswoman said the firm is “committed to working closely with state and federal regulators to ensure we are properly licensed for the products and services we offer.” An OCC spokesman declined to comment.
- Coinbase Venture, the venture capital fund, has made its first investment. Compound allows users to borrow cryptocurrencies or lend them and earn interest. This shows that the cryptocurrency industry is adopting some cues from the traditional banking industry.
- Switzerland is considering the possibility of a state-backed cryptocurrency according to a Reuters report. Switzerland’s Federal Council explained why it was asking for a formal study of state backed cryptocurrency. “The Federal Council is aware of the major challenges, both legal and monetary, which would be accompanied by the use of an e-franc. It asks that the proposal be adopted to examine the risks and opportunities of an e-franc and to clarify the legal, economic and financial aspects of the e-franc.”
- Bitcoin’s lightning network (LN) is approaching 2000 functional nodes as users are now highlighting the cost savings that come with the technology.
- New York just granted its 5th BitLicense to Genesis Global Trading. The platform supports Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Ripple, Litecoin, and Zcash. In the regulator’s release, New York financial services superintendent Maria Vullo said, “New York continues to lead the nation in regulating the growing fintech industry.”
- Stuttgart Borse, Germany’s second largest stock exchange, has announced it is launching a zero-fee cryptocurrency app. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple will be supported from the app’s launch, with additional cryptos promised “in the near future.” The interface and trading process aims at convenience, forgoing the need for crypto wallets or paperwork.
- The Chinese government has been working on a system for rating cryptocurrencies and Ethereum (ETH) was ranked number one out of 28 revealed.
- Santander bank has become the first company to use investor voting with blockchain technology.
- Coinbase said that it will be upgrading its services. It will be offering four new products aimed at institutional investors. This will also allow retail traders to invest in crypto without owning it through Coinbase’s custody program being offered to banks. This will open up adoption in a big way, and prepares crypto for incoming institutional money.
- eToro, the trading and brokerage form, is expanding to the United States.
- HTC is now selling a phone that will be dedicated to DApps (decentralized apps) and blockchain security.
- Cryptocurrency firm Circle, which bought cryptocurrency exchange Poloniex in February, has raised USD$110mm in Series E funding.
- IBM and Veridium will be working together to bring carbon credits onto blockchain, allowing companies to offset their environmental footprints easier.
- Japan’s Mitsbuishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) plans to trial its own cryptocurrency as early as 2019.
- The online German bank, Bitbond, is now allowing customers to transfer loans using Bitcoin.
- Steve Wozniak compared Ethereum’s platform with Apple and said it could become just as influential, saying, “Ethereum interests me because it can do things and because it’s a platform.”
So, as you can see, the market does not accurately reflect what has been going on in the background while everyone was focused on Consensus. Hopefully, we’ll start to see goodwill return to the market as we enter the summer as the market is simply angry right now.
As a small tangent, I’m happy to report that we won the award for “Best Video Production” at this year’s Crypto Influencers Summit. Thank you to everyone who voted for us and for continuing to support us as we strive towards our goal of being the best crypto educators in the space. Without you none of this would be possible.
Talk to you tomorrow.
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Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- Please see Doc’s recent swing setups on ONT and ETH in the “Top Ten & Swings” section below.
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.
Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.
NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:
- An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
- A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
- SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
- Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.
NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.
WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:
- A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
- They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.
Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.
OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.
NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:
- The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.
- The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.
Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.
- Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
- National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
- XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.
Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows
- Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
- Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
- Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.
Fundamental Currency Research
In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof. That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:
For flipping Neutral.
For long-term holding Good.
What is it?
DataBlockChain.io is a revolutionary data platform that stands to disrupt the way that companies and individuals gather premium data. Our product will democratize data, making it more readily available and less expensive than the current methods of data gathering and vetting. The result is that clients can access specific data sets in a cost-effective and transparent way, collecting exactly what they need without paying for extraneous data. We will merge our own proprietary data with many of the world’s largest databases ranging from government data, industry specific data, voting records, business to business data, property data, credit bureau data, etc. to create a comprehensive variety of data sets valuable to individuals and businesses looking to both attract and retain clients. As a result of our platform, all participants will be able to obtain the exact, nuanced data they are seeking. Because DataBlockChain.io removes the middlemen in the data industry that tend to drive prices up and cause inefficiencies, no order size will be too small to fulfill. This opens up an untapped market of potential clients on a global stage.
What is our verdict?
What we like: Big data, AI, and Blockchain? That’s quite a combination.
What we don’t like: A smaller hard cap would be preferable, and a stronger go-to-market strategy would also inspire confidence.
Norway-based registrar organization DNV GL has invested in blockchain startup VeChain.
VeChain CEO Sunny Lu told CoinDesk that the companies would continue their partnership.
“We are able to provide with VeChain a solution that balances safety and [speed],” Luca Crisciotti, chief executive of DNV, explained, adding:
“Our mission is the ability to make sure that product is reaching the shelves, that it’s ultimately reaching the consumer … What we are providing to our customers is commitment.”
Meanwhile, ICON also had a large partnership announcement today.
“Unchain will create a blockchain ecosystem fueled by a token economy, where the users are rewarded for their contributions to the network. DApp services discovered through ICON and Unblock, a subsidiary of LINE dedicated to blockchain research and to accelerate DApp projects, will be integrated with Unchain. This joint venture takes blockchain and decentralization another step closer to being a part of our everyday lives.”
We found the following video to be a great summary of where we are with Blockchain today:
The Ontology Foundation and the NEO Foundation signed a memorandum of understanding on May 14th, 2018, concerning strategy and technology integration:
Whereas: Ontology is a distributed trust network that focuses on digital identity, data exchange and other trust collaboration scenarios. NEO is dedicated to realizing a distributed network that serves the smart economy. Both Ontology and NEO share a common technical understanding and vision, and both wish to promote blockchain technology and its applications.
Purpose: Ontology and NEO together provide compliance-ready, regulatable protocols to global developers. These protocols are supported by NeoVM with exceptional finality and a smart contract system with a robust and stable infrastructure-level network.
As such, the Ontology Foundation and the NEO Foundation have agreed to cooperate as follows:
Key Cooperation Areas
1. Ontology will provide digital identity, data exchange services and other customized services. NEO brings a mature and complete smart contract platform as well as distributed network infrastructure services to the table.
2. Smart Contracts: Ontology and NEO will work together to build a smart contract ecosystem, fully support the development and adoption of NeoVM and NeoContract, and collaborate on developing smart contract open standards.
3. Data Integration: Both parties will provide standardized technology interfaces (APIs, SDKs, etc.), and share and communicate development achievements and research results.
4. Cross-chain: Both parties will push forward with cross-chain research, with the eventual goal of producing integrable mainnets.
… We see this as an extremely promising step forward for both projects, and for the larger NEP5 ecosystem. The system of cooperation is one way this space moves forward, and we see NEO’s smart economy as a big part of that.
Technical Analysis Research
So far a couple of green days to the upside; is this the beginning of the print of a “higher low” or just a pause before the downside takes over again? I don’t know, but the charts can help us determine that by setting up a conditional framework that drives our decisions.
In today’s video I go over the reasons why I like ONT and ETH. I believe that we can go ahead and take ONT right now, because alts like this “moon” very quickly and you lose edge exponentially as you chase it higher. I also like ETH/USD but would prefer to see it break above $720 before I enter this swing.
I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class on Wednesday evening; if not, the replay is available here.
Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below:
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
- ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the $59 street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know. You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.