Premium Daily Crypto NewsletterMay 24, 2018
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Crypto Market Commentary
Market Finally Has Some Recovery
Major News Out of The US
While the market had somewhat of a drop-off today, it was able to recover and leave us mostly positive for the day.
As we mentioned yesterday, we were clearly in oversold territory and while we still don’t believe that a bull run is imminent, bottoms are a process while tops are an event. We’ve been slowly losing ground since our recent May 5th high of 470 Billion, and if today’s low of 320 Billion can serve as a launchpad which would be ideal. That said, we saw a low of 240 Billion a little less than 2 months ago so don’t discount the possibility the market loses volume and total market cap this weekend.
In today’s news the biggest story was clearly the announcement that the US Justice Department has opened a criminal probe into whether certain traders are manipulating the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
According to Bloomberg:
“The investigation is focused on illegal practices that can influence prices — such as spoofing, or flooding the market with fake orders to trick other traders into buying or selling, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the review is private. Federal prosecutors are working with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”
The authorities involved are worried that cryptocurrencies are susceptible to fraud. This is because they are skeptical that all exchanges are actively pursuing market manipulators, and given the lack of regulations like the ones that govern stocks they allow drastic price swings.
Specifically they are looking for spoofing and wash trading. In spoofing, a trader submits a large orders or orders and then cancels them once prices move in their desired direction. Wash trading involve trading with oneself to give a false impression of market demand.
John Griffin, a University of Texas finance professor, says:
“There’s very little monitoring of manipulative trading, spoofing and wash trading, it would be easy to spoof this market.”
This action by the DOJ should be no surprise and is clearly one of the biggest hurdles stopping institutional investors from participating. With proper regulations in place, and the means to enforce them, that is when the market will be ready for a higher form of trading.
It should be clear to anyone who trades on a popular platform like Binance that the markets are constantly being manipulated. Such concerns have prompted other countries, such as China, to ban cryptocurrency exchanges and nations like Japan to enforce them.
In response, there has been some chatter between exchanges that they need to band together in order to tackle this issue and self-regulate, which would be a very positive signal to regulators.
Regardless of how this plays out, it’s going to be ugly in the short and mid-term. There’s a lot that separates the highly-regulated traditional markets and the wild west of cryptocurrencies. But in the coming years the latter will start to resemble the former more and more.
That’s not just hyperbole. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve committee that oversees the regulatory environment of open markets, is set to meet on May 30 to consider watering down the “Volcker Rule”. This is a major deregulatory move, as relaxing it would allow thousands of banks to make high risk profit-seeking trades with less government oversight. That doesn’t mean banks are going to start trading cryptocurrencies, but it does mean the tide is shifting towards the regulatory environment we had prior to 2008.
This comes after the US Congress voted 258-159 to approve easing of the the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial law, which sought to prevent another financial crisis. It will encourage banks to grow larger and ultimately encourage more risk-taking behaviour that led to the 2008 financial crisis.
Most people assume banks make very conservative moves with the money they entrust to them, but the reality is that they are rewarded for more risk-inherent behaviour. Relaxing of the Volcker Rule and Dodd-Frank will see derivatives more actively traded and put the future financial security in jeopardy. It’s no wonder many of the retail traders we speak to are moving into cash.
We’re somewhat sceptical that cryptocurrency, in its current form, will serve as a bear market haven if we go through another recession, but it bears mentioning that we’ve never seen crypto as an asset in a recession.
Whatever the case, we’re certain that the path forward for cryptocurrency is going to be a tough one, but ultimately worth the struggle as we become more recognized and accepted.
Talk to you this weekend.
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Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.
Tier 1 coins are those coins which we have considerable assets invested, are firm believers in the project direction and execution, and have very little reason to sell within short to mid term. These are coins which we risk evaluated to be very solid, and have a high probability of existence duration.
NEO ($NEO) is classified as a Dividend and Platform coin. As our largest holding, we believe NEO has the potential to become a dominant smart contract and DApp platform in 2018. It’s four most compelling features are:
- An innovative consensus algorithm which will allow for greater TPS (transactions per second) over its competitors.
- A dividend structure for holders, incentivizing coin retention and network stability / diversity.
- SE Asia location, enabling NEO to break into markets more easily than competitors.
- Agnostic smart contract language, allowing for smart contract developers to use existing mainstream programming languages, which allows for cheaper smart contract implementation as compared to Ethereum who’s proprietary smart contract language, Solidity, can be a barrier to integration.
NEO is best acquired through Binance. Storing NEO on the Binance exchange will result in a GAS distribution once a month on the first. We recommend the NEON wallet for safe storage. GAS will be distributed on the NEON wallet daily.
WaltonChain ($WTC) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. Waltonchain is on the cutting edge of using RFID hardware to enable supply chain management 2.0. We believe Walton has the potential to become a dominant IoT blockchain solution Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via patent pending RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology. The custom RFID chips are able to digitally sign and verify transactions at the integrated circuit level, automatically and instantly reading and writing data to the chain without human intervention. This unique implementation of blockchain + IoT facilitates the true interconnection of all things in the real world with the virtual world, creating a genuine, trustworthy and traceable business ecosystem with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Walton has two major competitive advantages:
- A recently confirmed (to be signed) partnership with China Mobile’s IoT Alliance. China Mobile is the largest mobile telecommunications service in the world as well as the world’s largest mobile phone operator by total number of subscribers. Walton’s Management system is set to be implemented through mobile communication networks, and China Mobile is the largest one. Waltonchain is positioning themselves to be the single connector of the entire Internet of Things initiative put forward by the China Mobile IoT Alliance.
- They implement the blockchain through the RFIDs at the foundational layer. Their technology is patent-pending and gives Waltonchain a solid claim as the only blockchain that connects the physical world with the virtual world with truly reliable data. This is because all other IoT solutions tag items through API, and this means all the data is first passed through a centralized intermediate, a potential point of vulnerability.
Ethereum ($ETH) is an open blockchain Platform that lets anyone build and use decentralized applications that run on blockchain technology. Like Bitcoin, no one controls or owns Ethereum – it is an open-source project built by many people around the world. But unlike the Bitcoin protocol, Ethereum was designed to be adaptable and flexible. It is easy to create new applications on the Ethereum platform, and with the Homestead release, it is now safe for anyone to use those applications.
OmiseGO ($OMG) is classified as a Dividend and Utility coin. OmiseGO is a Southeast Asia-based company creating an e-wallet that will make transfer of assets and currencies possible. Merchants and users of the wallet can transfer whatever asset or currency they desire. For example, you could use your ethereum, bitcoin, international fiat, or even your airline points to buy groceries using the e-wallet app on your mobile phone. Transfers can happen across borders, or even while traveling abroad. Unlike Western Union or PayPal for example, the fees are almost negligible, and the transfer is instant. Because it’s based on a blockchain, there are no intermediary banks necessary and users don’t need bank accounts to access those funds. This is especially good for migrant workers who send money home and often don’t have bank accounts and are forced to use expensive wire services instead.
NAVcoin ($NAV) is a Privacy coin with upcoming Platform features. NAVcoin has been around for 3 years. It is not minable, instead being based on a Proof of Stake system in which stakers earn 5% annual returns. Theoretically this means there could be 5% inflation on the supply, however, that would require every coin holder to stake, so likely there will be very marginal inflation between 1 and 3% year over year. It is a currency originally based off of Bitcoin version 0.13, which should tell you it’s got a good foundation from which to build its feature set. Being based off Bitcoin, it currently is a method of transaction, with notable upgrades in the form of Segwit (with possible lightning network integration in the future) and 30 transaction times with extremely marginal fees. That’s great but a lot of coins have that going for them, so thankfully we’re just getting started with the real interesting pieces of NAV. The first and currently only implemented feature, NavTech is a unique dual blockchain technology. Essentially, NAV runs on these two blockchains in order to completely disconnect the sending wallet (your wallet), to the receiving wallet (where the money is getting sent). Think of it like a VPN, NavTech completely strips the sender’s details so the transaction is completely anonymous. The anonymous transaction space has really gotten big lately, with Monero’s recent price action and Ethereum’s implementation of ZKSnarks being two big examples that come to mind.Moving on to the roadmap, there are two big upcoming features for NAV:
- The first is Polymorph, which is a really cool blend of Nav’s anonymous transactions and Changeally’s instant exchange. What this means is that, for example, I wanted to pay someone in Bitcoin but I wanted to do it anonymously. Polymorph would take my bitcoin, turn it into navcoin in order to be processed and sent anonymously using the Navtech dual blockchain, then turned back into bitcoin at the to be sent to the receiving wallet. This will certainly set NAV apart, as it guarantees anonymous transaction for all of the coins on changeally. This is huge for exposure, and a great opportunity for NAVcoin to gain trust, which is absolutely critical anonymous transaction coins.
- The second big upcoming feature is ADApps, or Anonymized Decentralized Apps. This is also a huge potential win for Nav as there is already a huge amount of interest in the crypto space surrounding Dapps, such as Ethereum and Omni. Adding in the anonymous layer would attract projects that would value the anonymity. Nav is still in the planning stages for this project so it could still be awhile before it comes to fruition, but we should see the whitepaper for it soon, and if they could be first to market with ADapps that could prove to be a killer feature for them as it would give them first access to the interested demographics.
Ripple ($XRP) is a real-time Payment protocol for anything of value. It’s a shared public database, with a built-in distributed currency exchange, that operates as the worlds first universal translator for money. Ripple is currency agnostic and has a foreign exchange component built right into the protocol. Ripple acts as a pathfinding algorithm to find the best route for a dollar to become a euro or airline miles to become Bitcoin. It will look at all the orders in the global order book. The case for XRP comes down to the following: 1) Payment systems work best with bridge assets to focus liquidity. 2) There are good reasons to expect a cryptocurrency to be the most popular bridge asset. 3) There are good reasons to expect that cryptocurrency to be XRP.
- Open, decentralized payments will have lots and lots of assets, including national currencies of all kinds and cryptos. A significant fraction of payments will be among assets that aren’t the most popular. Using intermediary assets to settle those payments concentrates liquidity and reduces spreads.
- National currencies are always tied to jurisdictions and can’t be universal. Systems built around them will never be as open and inclusive as systems that aren’t.
- XRP settles faster than any other major crypto. It higher transaction rates than other major cryptos. It is beat by others only by the amount of liquidity available today. And, most importantly, XRP has a company that is devoted to making sure XRP succeeds for this specific use case.
Simply put, ICON ($ICX) is a massive scale blockchain Platform that allows
- Decentralized Application (DAPPS) – Build DAPPS on ICON Platform like on Ethereum and NEO. Yes, soon, you will see ICOs happening on ICON platform for different DAPPS
- Interchain (Interoperability with Blockchains) – Allows different blockchains connecting to one another through their protocol. ICON is fully compatible with traditional blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and in future can bridge other public blockchains such as Qtum, NEO and many others to achieve their mission statement – “Hyperconnect the world”
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Use of AI to ensure all nodes contributing to ICON Republic/platform are rewarded fairly and not to have certain powers over distribution policies. AI will continue to learn a variety of variables to determine optimal distribution policies and achieve complete decentralization.
- Decentralized Exchange (DEX) – ICON will integrate different DEX protocols on their platform to facilitate exchange of ICX and other future ICON platform currencies. Bancor protocol will be their first DEX protocol when mainent launches this month end and Kyber and others will follow. Not just throwing Kyber’s name out there, it was confirmed they are working with each other, official partnership yet to be announced.
Fundamental Currency Research
In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof. That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:
For flipping Neutral.
For long-term holding Neutral.
What is it?
We are building an international ecosystem for the driven of development and production of AI & robotics. It consists of own and partners R&D laboratories, technoparks, factories and an Online platform that will bring together developers, investors, and customers from around the world.
What is our verdict?
What we like: Has all the right buzzwords: “robotics,” “AI,” and “blockchain.” Has an MVP.
What we don’t like: Not the clearest need for a blockchain, and the token is likely a security
Please note that you need to register your EOS if you haven’t done so already.
There’s several methods, and this website is a good starting point for information: https://eosauthority.com/genesis
Probably the easiest method I’ve been pointing people to is using Exodus: https://support.exodus.io/article/690-how-do-i-register-my-eos-address-inside-exodus
Hopefully, that should get you started!
Alternatively, if you don’t feel like going through this you can just sell right before the mainnet launch and re-buy the new tokens afterwards.
We were recently asked if we’d invest in TRAC or EVE, two supply chain projects that are competing for realtively the same space.
Without getting too deep into EVE vs. TRAC today, what you should instead be focused on is which one is best long term. If you can’t adequately make that determination, which is fair given they’re both very new, then there’s no shame in holding both.
After all, I guarantee you if you go all-in on one of these projects, and the other takes off, it’s going to hurt a lot more than if you split your holdings and only received a bump in half your portfolio. I’d rather take a 50% shot over a 0% shot any day.
When it comes down to it, I think they both have potential and it’s just too early to know which is better long-term. Having two competing projects, it’s wise to invest in both instead of trying to decide which is better.
I’d advise anyone the same way if they asked me WTC vs. VEN, or NEO vs. ETH, or ICX vs. ARK, etc. This space is so immature that you’re playing to lose if you go all-in on one project. Diversify is the name of the game.
We don’t currently own EVE as we feel the project has received a l9ot of attention recently and we’d like a better buy-in price.
We made a number of acquisitions today in response to a perceived market drop. Zilliqa: The practical byzantine fault tolerance algorithm (PBFT), which is used to establish consensus in blockchain systems, is only one of those potential solutions. Three examples of blockchains that rely on the PBFT for conses are Hyperledger, Stellar, and Ripple. Zilliqa will likely be the first blockchain with live on-chain transaction sharding, which gives them a high, near linearly increasing, throughput: 2488 tx/s in their internal testnet. Additionally, Zilliqa uses the smart contract language “Scilla”, which is similar to Solidity, but safer, e.g. things like the parity hack would’ve been prevented when using Scilla. Is it Ethereum with already implemented sharding? Like Ethereum, it is a blockchain on which you can run smart contracts. However, it is designed in such a way, that it is linearly scalable with the number of nodes of the network. I. e., the more Zilliqa nodes there are, the faster the blockchain gets. With the number of nodes Ethereum has at the moment Zilliqa would be able to process 15 000 tx/s! In the long-run they will focus on blockchain interoperability and privacy as well. The project that can break through VISA’s 24,000 TPS limit will certainly draw a lot of attention inside and outside of the crypto community. Are they near that objective or is it still theoritical? They are near their objective. As mentioned previously they had already 2488 tx/s in their internal testnet. This month the public testnet will be launched. The mainnet is due in Q3 of this year Streamr: From Coindesk: Blockchain data platform Streamr is partnering with Finnish telecom giant Nokia and California software company OSIsoft to allow mobile customers to monetize their user data and make purchases. Chief executive Henri Pihkala announced the partnerships at CoinDesk’s Consensus 2018 conference Wednesday, while also conducting a live launch of its real-time data marketplace, through which users can provide and subscribe to real-time data streams. He said in a statement that “today marks a hugely significant day in Streamr’s history, not only showcasing our platform to the world on-stage at Consensus but announcing two stellar partnerships.” The partnership with Nokia will see Nokia’s Kuha base stations integrate with Streamr’s data marketplace, allowing Nokia customers to both monetize their user data and purchase streams from Internet of Things devices. “We recognize a growing movement of empowered mobile customers who want to control and monetize their own data,” Nokia’s radio system evolution lead Martti Ylikoski, said in a statement, adding, “our partnership with Streamr reflects our firm belief in the platform.” Participants buy and sell real-time data streams through ethereum smart contracts. Buyers and sellers use an ERC-20 token called DATAcoin. The partnership with OSIsoft will see the firm’s enterprise customers gain the ability to earn money for their operations data. Ealier in May, Streamr announced another partnership, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise, to use the Streamr Engine – a data aggregator and analytics tool – to collect data feeds from an Audi Q2″ Bridge Protocol: Bridge interfaces with NEO framework and allows users to manage, protect and utilize sensitive information in new ways. The Protocol offers a new standard for whitelists and allows participation in multiple ICOs. Bridge Certificates build trust so users can transact with confidence. Digital identity is a big part of why NEO will succeed in China, and Bridge or the THEKEY are potentially a big piece of that. Fabric Token: The Fabric Token (FT) ecosystem aims to empower individuals and businesses with easy access to blockchain technology and smart contracts by providing a bundle of user-friendly software. The products within the FT ecosystem will focus primarily on helping people of any background to create and deploy their decentralized application (DApp), without the specialized computer programming knowledge that they would usually need.
We exited our position in ELEC after we hit our stop loss. This was always a risky position as the Power Blockchain space is competitive and has a lot to prove over existing systems. We’ll consider re-entering this position as it continues to fall.
Norway-based registrar organization DNV GL has invested in blockchain startup VeChain. VeChain CEO Sunny Lu told CoinDesk that the companies would continue their partnership. “We are able to provide with VeChain a solution that balances safety and [speed],” Luca Crisciotti, chief executive of DNV, explained, adding: “Our mission is the ability to make sure that product is reaching the shelves, that it’s ultimately reaching the consumer … What we are providing to our customers is commitment.” Meanwhile, ICON also had a large partnership announcement today.
“Unchain will create a blockchain ecosystem fueled by a token economy, where the users are rewarded for their contributions to the network. DApp services discovered through ICON and Unblock, a subsidiary of LINE dedicated to blockchain research and to accelerate DApp projects, will be integrated with Unchain. This joint venture takes blockchain and decentralization another step closer to being a part of our everyday lives.” We found the following video to be a great summary of where we are with Blockchain today:
The Ontology Foundation and the NEO Foundation signed a memorandum of understanding on May 14th, 2018, concerning strategy and technology integration:
Whereas: Ontology is a distributed trust network that focuses on digital identity, data exchange and other trust collaboration scenarios. NEO is dedicated to realizing a distributed network that serves the smart economy. Both Ontology and NEO share a common technical understanding and vision, and both wish to promote blockchain technology and its applications.
Purpose: Ontology and NEO together provide compliance-ready, regulatable protocols to global developers. These protocols are supported by NeoVM with exceptional finality and a smart contract system with a robust and stable infrastructure-level network.
As such, the Ontology Foundation and the NEO Foundation have agreed to cooperate as follows:
Key Cooperation Areas
1. Ontology will provide digital identity, data exchange services and other customized services. NEO brings a mature and complete smart contract platform as well as distributed network infrastructure services to the table.
2. Smart Contracts: Ontology and NEO will work together to build a smart contract ecosystem, fully support the development and adoption of NeoVM and NeoContract, and collaborate on developing smart contract open standards.
3. Data Integration: Both parties will provide standardized technology interfaces (APIs, SDKs, etc.), and share and communicate development achievements and research results.
4. Cross-chain: Both parties will push forward with cross-chain research, with the eventual goal of producing integrable mainnets.
… We see this as an extremely promising step forward for both projects, and for the larger NEP5 ecosystem. The system of cooperation is one way this space moves forward, and we see NEO’s smart economy as a big part of that.
Technical Analysis Research
Some positive price movement in the Crypto markets today; is this the beginning of the next swing higher? Or just a one-day wonder? In today’s newsletter, I walk through several tools that we can use to determine where charts sit. Unfortunately, nothing really stands out other than some positive MACD divergence. Still just a daily downtrend in the context of a weekly swing down.
I hope you guys like the changes that we’ll be featuring on our website by Sunday; it should make it easier to find your information and content. This weekend’s newsletter will be coming out on Sunday evening. Good weekend to you all!
Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
- ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class last week; if not, the replay is available here. If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView and Coinigy, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know. You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.