Doc's Daily Commentary

Mind Of Mav

Where Is Bitcoin Likely Going From Here?


Price sits between value and momentum thresholds, with the value being in the low-mid $30,000s and momentum above $47,000.



In blue the short-term holder cost basis, in orange, a ratio of realized price-liveliness; called HODLer implied price.

A bullish scenario based on this chart would be the push above the STH cost basis to regain momentum. A bearish case would be a cross of STH cost basis before HODLer implied, a sign of capitulation to come.



To illustrate how significant these price levels are, look at realized price distribution:

Visualizing the amount of BTC last moved at each denominated price level.13.8% of Bitcoin’s money supply has last moved between $38,000 and $41,000.

Funding rates remain muted/mixed, an indication of a lack of strong opinion from the perpetual market as well as increasing market efficiency.

There has been a fairly strong signal of local recoveries aside from a slight premium in late November before an unprecedented dump of inventory by Asia in December. Asian trading hours have been trading Bitcoin at a premium for the first time since January.

Previous premium regimes: post covid crash, dip bought to $47K in April 2021, Massive dip-buying in summer 2021, dip bought to $40Kin September 2021, Dip bought in January.

The amount of supply not moved in at least a year climbed, reaching new highs of 64.5%.

Entities with over 1,000 BTC adding to their holdings for the first time since January.

BTC to move up you either need: Tech to rebound, pulling up BTC through correlation or a decorrelation. The case for a decorrelation over the next 3–6 months can be made by looking at this data.

You have one group of correlation trading entities and one group of crypto natives holding their BTC/adding to their holdings.


The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

Add your vote to the V3 Portfolio (Phase 3) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 2) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 1) by clicking here.

Read the V3 Portfolio guide by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as

The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

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The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)

Add your vote to the V4 Portfolio by clicking here.

Read about building Crypto Portfolio Diversity by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN
DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:



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