Doc's Daily Commentary

Mind Of Mav

What’s Crypto’s Next Move After A Bearish Week?

 

BTC still sitting below the $47,000 area we view as momentum.

This currently sits at $47k and is based on a confluence of indications of market structure.

Below you have one of these indications; the 180 weekly exponential hulls moving average. This is essentially a moving average with a weighting factor to recent price action. It has turned red for just the 4th in BTC history, meaning the moving average is declining.’

Another indicator is the STH cost basis currently sitting at $46,900.

Bear markets typically involve multiple failed underside retests of the aggregated cost basis of new participants seeking to exit the market at break-even.

You should still view the low $30ks as value, based on HTF price structure, and the fact that all on-chain macro oscillators would likely be reset in a visit down to that area.

Correlation to the Nasdaq remains extremely high on all time frames as market participants basket BTC in with tech another risk-on asset.

You can also see here BTC trading with NQ essentially tick for tick.

As the DXY pushes towards multi-year highs, BTC has seen a sharp inverse correlation to DXY.

Network statistics are continuing their decline; showing a decrease in speculative retail and exuberance in the market.

The amount of transfer volume dominated by transactions below $10K has also seen a perpetual decline; indicating transaction batching by exchanges paired with primarily a decrease in bull market retail participants.

Despite the macro backdrop, under the surface crypto natives are holding tight. The amount of supply that hasn’t moved in at least a year continues to grind to new all-time highs. Long-term holder supply is also increasing.

The rate of decline in LTH cost basis is the sharpest by far in Bitcoin’s history, and when paired with an increase in their holdings shows a level of adoption from top buyers to long-term holders.

The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

Add your vote to the V3 Portfolio (Phase 3) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 2) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 1) by clicking here.

Read the V3 Portfolio guide by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as
possible.

The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

Move Your Mouse Over Charts Below For More Information

The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)

Add your vote to the V4 Portfolio by clicking here.

Read about building Crypto Portfolio Diversity by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN
DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:

 

 

Move Your Mouse Over Charts Below For More Information

Our Discord

Join Our Crypto Trader & Investor Chatrooms by clicking here!

Please DM us with your email address if you are a full OMNIA member and want to be given full Discord privileges.