Premium Daily Crypto NewsletterNovember 4, 2018
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Crypto Market Commentary
Mav's Daily Commentary
Week In Review
Overall Market Still Lethargic
The market graced us with another uneventful week in terms of price. The overall net gain / loss is nearly equivalent to the start of the week. In fact, Bitcoin is the only coin in the top ten showing red on the 7 day chart (other than Tether). We saw this shift last year as well preceding the massive bull rally in December. Bitcoin peaked at 62% and 67% market dominance in November and December, respectively, and soon plummeted as the market embraced altcoins.
While history repeating is never guaranteed, it is certainly something to pay attention to.
Of course, as we’ve found throughout this year, a slow market does not mean a slow news cycle.
Most notably, we saw the 10 year anniversary of Bitcoin’s whitepaper this week. It’s a solemn reminder of how far we’ve come, and how far we’ve yet to go.
Meanwhile, I spent the past week in Las Vegas at the World Crypto Con in order to get some perspective on what’s happening at the ground level.
Here’s what I found:
- ICOs are old news.
Many of the booths for ICOs were poorly staffed, crudely marketed, and inadequately showcased their product, if they had one at all.
- Mining has become its own industry, and it’s increasingly corporate.
The home-mining dream is mostly dead. The only representatives there were selling their ASIC solutions and represented further abstraction from Bitcoin’s humble beginnings. Mining, like ICOs, is old news.
- The crypto industry is wide and diverse.
Many of the people I spoke to had origins in very different industries, and this “melting pot” effect was on full display for a conference with 1000+ attendees.
- We’re entering a new era of institutional investment and government regulation.
In addition to all the institutional news we’ve received over the past couple months, it was fully apparent to me that the maturation of this space is happening here and now.
While there were eye-rolling examples of crypto’s past, such as three separate lamborghinis with bikini-clad women standing next to them, what really stood out to me was the very subtle trend in the background. Representatives of banks, hedge funds, VCs, and regulation-focused projects were all on the outskirts of the flashy showrooms. The handshakes and deal-signings done in the backrooms of this conference will have more effect on this space in a short amount of time than whatever was being advertised on that Murciélago.
So, overall, it was an incredibly interesting conference to attend. The crypto industry is going in so many different directions at once that it may soon look nothing like it does today.
In essence, the cryptocurrency space is not receding. We are moving forward full-steam. A market recovery under the pretense of a expanding and innovative space, rather than one of mostly speculation and hype, will shepherd us into a whole new era.
What struck me about the conversations I had were several things:
- Just about everyone I talked to, from my Lyft drivers to my airplane neighbor to many of the casino patrons I met, all were interested in crypto. Most know the basics of cryptocurrency or how the market imploded, but were still interested to know more. “Is now a good time to invest?” was the #1 question I received.
- At the DSO (Digital Securities Offerings, aka, Security Token Offering) panels, the main concerns were around regulation and custody. However, all the qualified panelists did a good job highlighting how those concerns are being reduced as more companies become qualified custodians and how governments are increasingly willing to work with this space to develop rational regulation.
- There is a lot of fear across the board regarding traditional financial markets. Combined with a lack of trust in the government and a sense of impending recession / fiat inflation, investors and companies are increasingly accepting of the paradigm shift offered with cryptocurrencies.
- Many investors are also reluctant to place faith in stocks and bonds with an increasingly turbulent public market. Again, the sense of an impending recession has investors nervous and willing to consider alternative investments.
- Despite the common belief that cryptocurrency is the domain of millennials in their 20’s and 30’s (guilty!), the average age of those I talked to was certainly shifted higher. In effect, what we’re seeing in crypto is the technological expertise of the younger generations being combined with the financial and business expertise of older generations. Cryptocurrency is often described as a grand social experiment, and I think this is indicative of that.
Want proof of what’s yet to come?
- Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley released a report stating that cryptocurrencies have become “a new institutional investment class.”
- Fidelity announced their new institutional crypto platform, Fidelity Digital Assets, solely dedicated to custody and investing in crypto.
- Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund invested directly in Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume.
- Major endowments, known for being conservative in their investments, have moved into crypto, such as Yale, Harvard, MIT, Stanford, Notre Dame, and UNC.
- Major institutions such as Goldman Sachs and TD Ameritrade have announced their intentions to empower clients to trade cryptocurrency and derivatives.
- Some of the largest exchanges in the world, such as the NYSE and NASDAQ, are explicitly moving into this space and fully intend to let retail investors openly trade cryptocurrency
Not only that, but we now know that the SEC is ready to deliver their updated remarks on the previously-rejected Bitcoin ETFs:
“Accordingly, IT IS ORDERED, pursuant to Commission Rule of Practice 431, that by November 5, 2018, any party or other person may file a statement in support of, or in opposition to, the action made pursuant to delegated authority.”
While we have no expectations that they will change their original conclusions, it will hopefully be an opportunity to see why they opened the previously closed applications, and how that may play into the inevitable decision of the VanEck / SolidX Bitcoin ETF still under review.
Whatever the case, we’re in uncharted waters.
Crypto was previously an unacceptable topic at investment committees and trustee board meetings. It used to be seen as a poor choice to suggest investments in digital assets.
That changed in 2018 though.
Crypto is now a topic of discussion for institutional investors all over the world. They are racing each other to get in first.
It is no longer a question of “if,” but “when.”
We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Fourteen is now available. Episode Fourteen is entitled “Atomic Habits and the Four Maxims of Trading.” Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop! See you tomorrow!
Doc's Daily Commentary
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Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- Nothing moving in the right direction lately. Let’s be patient.
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
RSC Managed Crypto Fund
How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab
- ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14
- ETH/USD 2% added 9/9/2018 @ $200.50 (10% more to add)
- LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56. (5% more to add)
- XMR/BTC 2% added 9/21/2018 @ .018BTC
RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund
Technical Analysis Research
Nice gains today, but don’t be tempted to buy what you think is the bottom tick, unless you’re prepared to have your will tested. There will be many handles onto the Bull train when it comes.
In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry. All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI. Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :
- DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
- ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
- ETP/BTC – long @ .000522BTC (9/21) My target is .00072BTC
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here. If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.
Fundamental Currency Research
For flipping Good.
For long-term holding Neutral.
What is it?
What is our verdict?
What we like: Supernodes are very interesting. No trading commissions for users.
What we don’t like: There are many exchanges already on the market. Transaction mining isn’t currently solvent.
- Project name: Bgogo Exchange
- Token symbol: BGG
- Website: https://bgogo.com
- White paper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf
- Hard cap: 17,000 ETH (15,000 ETH during private sale and to supernodes, 2,000 ETH during public sale) for 10% of total tokens
- Conversion rate: Private sale: 1 ETH = 66,666 BGG; public sale: 1 ETH = 69,999.3 BGG.
- Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $51 million based on current ETH price of $300
- Bonus structure: Whitelisted public sale participants have a 5% bonus over the private sale price, with no lockup period.
- Private sale: The private sale has already been completed with 10,500 ETH raised from 21 supernodes and 4,500 ETH from strategic investors.
- White list: Bgogo’s public sale will be a Genesis Mining event (exact date to be confirmed) that will start 24 hours before mining is officially opened to the public. Only whitelisted users can participate. Details on the Genesis Mining event can be found here: https://bgogo.com/announcement?link=mining.
- ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
- Countries excluded: TBA
- Timeline: TBA
- Token distribution date: TBA
2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.