Figuring Out the Expected Move of BTC

The options market has an opinion on the forward pricing of every asset that it’s a derivative of, in this case the spot price of BTC. How about determining the forward expected price of BTC going forward to year-end? Let’s use Deribit to determine the expected move within a confidence level of 68.2%:

If we take the price of the “at the money” straddle for 30DEC options, we get a price of $1376 (calls) + $1514 (puts) = $2890 expected move.

With the current price of BTC being $15,755, the one standard deviation move into 30DEC is as high as $18,645 and as low as $12,865. Here then is our “probability cone” for BTCUSD into year-end:

Does this mean that the price ABSOLUTELY will be in this range by the 30th of December? No, nothing in the future is ever definite, however that is the range that large institutional option traders are expecting to see.

We can use this to establish range-bound trades in the case where we expect to see the price move less than the expected move, or we can set up long straddles where we expect to see the price move MORE than the expected move.

The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

Add your vote to the V3 Portfolio (Phase 3) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 2) by clicking here.

View V3 Portfolio (Phase 1) by clicking here.

Read the V3 Portfolio guide by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as
possible.

The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

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The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)

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Read about building Crypto Portfolio Diversity by clicking here.

What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.

This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.

To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:

SoV/money == BTC, DCR

Platforms == ETH, XTZ

Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN

DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins

It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:

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