Buy the Rumor, Sell the Bitcoin ETF News?

A new analysis suggests that Bitcoin might experience a rocky phase following the potential approval of the first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.

Joshua Lim, the head of derivatives at Genesis Trading, took to X (formerly Twitter) on November 28 to share his predictions of a tumultuous start for Bitcoin in 2024. Lim’s thread indicated that Bitcoin is already on the radar of traditional finance (TradFi) sectors, which are positioning themselves to capitalize on the anticipated spot ETF approval.

Lim pointed out that TradFi investors have been accumulating crypto positions in anticipation of the ETF news, as evidenced by the open interest data from CME Group’s Bitcoin futures. According to the thread, asset managers have increased their Bitcoin holdings by about $1 billion since the end of September.

The performance of the first Bitcoin futures ETF (BITO) and the surging stock prices of crypto firms like Coinbase (COIN), which has risen 250% year-to-date, reflect this trend. However, Lim warns that this bullish sentiment could quickly reverse post-ETF approval, potentially resulting in a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. He anticipates that retail investors will enter the market while TradFi players might exit around the ETF announcement, as seen in previous trends.

Lim’s concerns echo broader apprehensions that the eventual ETF approval could disadvantage everyday investors. Supporting these fears, James Straten, a research and data analyst at CryptoSlate, referenced historical parallels with the introduction of the Gold ETF (GLD) in November 2004. Following its launch, GLD initially dropped but eventually saw a 268% increase over seven years.

On a brighter note, popular trader Jelle observed that institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong despite recent headlines, including the $4.3-billion settlement between the U.S. government and Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. This interest suggests that the institutional commitment to Bitcoin and related financial products may continue, regardless of short-term market fluctuations triggered by ETF developments.

The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

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What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
Pillars of ReadySetCrypto. We aim to Capitalise on the collective knowledge and experience of the RSC
community & build model portfolios containing the premier companies and projects
in the industry and manage risk allocation suitable for as many people as
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The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

Our Current Allocation As Of Phase Three:

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The ReadySetCrypto "Top Ten Crypto" Community Portfolio (V4)

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What is the goal of this portfolio?

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.

This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.

To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:

SoV/money == BTC, DCR

Platforms == ETH, XTZ

Private Money == XMR / ZEC / ZEN

DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins

It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

Current Top 10 Rankings:

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