Premium Daily Crypto Newsletter

October 3, 2018

Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

Markets Continue To Fall With Stagnating Volume

Key Support Levels At $6,200

The market fell another 10 Billion down past support levels today as expected. With a lack of demand at key levels, we seemed primed for a continued dive to the 6,200 BTC level.

Without anything screaming out at us, there isn’t much driving demand right now. That could continue as there isn’t much on the radar for October, but crypto always has a way of surprising us.

 

With rising shorts, we can expect any spike upwards would be short-lived due to a short squeeze.

Overall, it might not be a terrible idea to ride out the mild storm in some stablecoins and wait for the market to find some true volatility again, but be ready to go long should we start climbing back towards $6,700 BTC.

 

The big news today is that the CBOE, TD Ameritrade, DRW and other large financial firms are backing the launch of ErisX.

The project itself was developed by a former Citigroup executive, Thomas Chippas, and looks to be a full service cryptocurrency derivatives exchange like Bakkt.

What’s important is that ErisX plans to launch physically backed futures for not only Bitcoin (like Bakkt), but also be the first ETH, BCH, and LTC futures markets, ushering in a new age for crypto derivatives.

“In our opinion there is no lack of interest in building out markets for people wishing to trade digital assets and there is plenty of space for people to come in with a regulated exchange and clearing house,” Chippas said in a phone interview.


What’s evident to me is that major financial institutions are starting to move into the cryptocurrency space, and are subsequently picking horses to back. Today’s news solidifies the trend of regulated exchanges that will pop up backed by traditional players. Unregulated exchanges are now under intense scrutiny, and will likely face major regulatory issues moving forward. 2019 will show the tide start to shift towards these new, regulated platforms as the need for them grows.

ErisX expects spot trading of cryptos to begin in Q2 of 2019. Trading of its planned derivatives products is pending regulatory approval. The firm holds a DCM, or designated market contracts, which could give it a leg-up over other crypto trading platforms.

The big question here is how much Bakkt will be affected by this, as ErisX is shaping up to be their biggest competition. It’s a smart team and they’ve been working on this since the beginning of the year.

 

Still, Bakkt is working alongside two of the largest retailers in the world, Starbucks and Microsoft, and it could have a first-mover advantage.

 

The competition will ultimately be good for this space, especially as more Wall St. interests become involved. We certainly don’t want to see another Mt.Gox situation where one exchange controls the market. As I pointed out in my video on Bakkt, there are very real security concerns with their offchain settlement layer, and so having real competition will force them to not get complacent.  

 

Speaking of complacency, CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo explained in his keynote address why there are Bitcoin futures trading on regulated exchanges in the U.S. but not Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

 

After all, we covered how many leaders in the crypto space voiced their concerns to the US Government about how innovation is being held back by slow regulation, and how this will kneecap the US position in the upcoming global economy.

 

“We are old agencies, our statutes are written in the 1930s,” Giancarlo explained, adding that the two agencies are trying to work with statutes that were written when there were no innovations that exist today. He then elaborated:

 

“More broadly, the SEC, their oversight is over capital formation markets with a big retail focus. Ours, at the CFTC, our focus is on risk transfer markets and we are always focused on derivatives and a lot of that is institutional trading. So we are focused on institutional investments, they are focused on retail.”

 

Sharing the regulatory focus of his agency, Giancarlo said, “We are very focused on the fraud and manipulation aspects of cryptocurrency markets right now.”

 

He argued that his agency is striking a balance between regulation and innovations, saying:

 

“It’s the United States that’s gone forward with the very first bitcoin derivatives, with bitcoin futures trading on the CME and also bitcoin options and bitcoin clearing – we are ahead of the world in that. There is no question that the United States is leading in a number of areas.”

 

He also pointed out that there are other areas of innovation which he believes the US should “take a little bit more of a thoughtful and intelligent approach, just as the US Congress did 20 years ago in the early days of the internet.”

 

What was most interesting to me is his personal opinion on where he sees the future of cryptocurrencies, especially two years from now.

 

“I personally think that cryptocurrencies are here to stay,” he said.

 

He went on to acknowledge that “there is a future for them [cryptocurrencies].”

 

“I’m not sure they will ever come to rival the dollar or other hard currencies but there is a whole section of the world that really is hungry for functional currencies that they can’t find in their local currencies.”

Giancarlo concluded that “there are 140 countries in the world, every one of them has a currency. Probably two-thirds of them are not worth the polymer of the paper they are written on. Those parts of the world rely on hard currencies. Bitcoin may solve some of the problems, whether it’s bitcoin or another cryptocurrency.”

 

I think the future of this space is bright in the capable hands of someone who understands the regulatory issues this space presents, and yet works to push the envelope further than what exists today.

 

We’ll see just how his comments come to pass in the coming years. Nonetheless, it’s an exciting time with so much uncertainty.

 

 

Watch Doc’s recent online classes here and here on “Four Rules to Chart Like a Pro.” 

 

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Thirteen is now available. Episode Thirteen is our interview with the CEO of Internxt about his upcoming beta of distributed storage services using Xcloud. (like a Dropbox). Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop! See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

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New to Cryptocurrencies? Check out our archived classes “Intro to Cryptocurrency Trading”, “How to Find Your Next Big Cryptocurrency: Intro to Fundamental Analysis,” Mav’s  class on “Security and Wallets” and Doc’s classes, “Introduction to Technical Analysis” and “Short Term Trading Strategies” which are now all available for immediate purchase in our Store, and seconds away from viewing in the Premium Member’s Home. View more about them at our online store by CLICKING HERE.

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • Ripple(XRP) is showing positive activity but we don’t want to chase after it.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="76496"]

How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab

  • ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14
  • ETH/USD 2% added 9/9/2018 @ $200.50 (10% more to add)
  • LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56.  (5% more to add)
  • XMR/BTC 2% added 9/21/2018 @ .018BTC
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Click on image to download the datasheet

RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="74717"]
What is this? The RSC Altcoin Fund is meant to replace our V1 portfolio. This portfolio, referred to as Portfolio V3, will represent a portfolio that is built upon more risky assets (assets outside the top 20), and is inherently more risky than Portfolio V2, the RSC Managed Crypto Fund (above). We will NOT be actively entering positions for this fund, but we will be updating the portfolio percentages and contents periodically.

Click on image to download the datasheet

Click on the image to download the TXT file

 

Technical Analysis Research

In today’s video I share the levels that need to break to either confirm the continued uptrend on BTC and ETH, or change polarity to a downtrend.

 

 

 

In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets.   As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry.  All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI.  Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
  • ETP/BTC – long @ .000522BTC (9/21) My target is .00072BTC

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

 

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Bgogo Exchange

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

 
 
 
 
 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: Supernodes are very interesting. No trading commissions for users.

What we don’t like: There are many exchanges already on the market. Transaction mining isn’t currently solvent.

  • Project name: Bgogo Exchange
  • Token symbol: BGG
  • Website: https://bgogo.com
  • White paper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf
  • Hard cap: 17,000 ETH (15,000 ETH during private sale and to supernodes, 2,000 ETH during public sale) for 10% of total tokens
  • Conversion rate: Private sale: 1 ETH = 66,666 BGG; public sale: 1 ETH = 69,999.3 BGG.
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $51 million based on current ETH price of $300
  • Bonus structure: Whitelisted public sale participants have a 5% bonus over the private sale price, with no lockup period.
  • Private sale: The private sale has already been completed with 10,500 ETH raised from 21 supernodes and 4,500 ETH from strategic investors.
  • White list: Bgogo’s public sale will be a Genesis Mining event (exact date to be confirmed) that will start 24 hours before mining is officially opened to the public. Only whitelisted users can participate. Details on the Genesis Mining event can be found here: https://bgogo.com/announcement?link=mining.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: TBA
  • Timeline: TBA
  • Token distribution date: TBA
  •  

Website: https://bgogo.com

Whitepaper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

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