Premium Daily Crypto NewsletterOctober 8, 2018
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Crypto Market Commentary
Mav's Daily Commentary
Markets Show Some Life
Bitcoin’s Volatility Hits 17-Month Low
The crypto markets started this week positive with a nice bump of around 5 billion overall.
What seems to be one of the most discussed aspects of this market is simply how stable Bitcoin is.
Over the past three days it has had a delta of less than $100, which is quite shocking for an asset we’re used to seeing move $1000 in a week.
Ultimately it will break out of this stability and move in ways we’re accustomed to. Some pundits have gone so far as to say this stability indicates that market manipulation has taken a backseat, but I’m not so naive to claim that. The market will always be manipulated. Even in traditional markets, we see manipulation, even if it’s not as pervasive in an unregulated market like crypto.
What cannot be disputed is that Bitcoin is at a 17-Month low for volatility. This is a maturing market and volatility is expected to decline over time. This indicates that the market has established itself. We’ll continue to see this trend over time. With more derivatives, more ways of trading, more arbitrage, more hedging, and important more participants, we’ll continue to see a macro trend of less volatility.
Now, related to our present situation, some will point out that a combination of an all-time-low of interest in the market, low volume, and low volatility all point to one thing: the sellers have finished selling and this is the “bottom”.
That’s a reasonable conclusion, but we’ve only recently hit this level.
It could very well be that we see a breakout to the downside. What then?
After all, people have been calling the bottom since this bear trend started. Eventually, someone is going to nail the call, but these are the same people that have been wrong 99 times in a row.
I think it’s a better strategy to take solace in this low-volatility environment and plan for what the market could do next without trying to call a bottom. Remember that if enough people think something is “inevitable”, then the market is quite capable of reminding them who’s in charge.
We’ve seen sentiment improve ever since we recovered from the August selloff, and it could very well be that the market is too hopeful for a recovery at this moment. We’re a month away from Bakkt launching which will likely have less of an initial impact than people are expecting.
We’re also expecting a resolution of the Bitcoin ETF speculation sometime in the next 3.5 months. Of course, that won’t be the end of it, even if it’s denied, but it will certainly challenge some preconceived notions that seem built into the market at this point.
Whatever the case, it’s apparent that the “mania” phase has cooled off and we now have the most rational market we’ve seen in over a year.
That’s likely very good for attracting the big players to the space. Stable growth is much more appealing to institutional investors and governments looking to work with the space.
A Fundstrat survey of 25 institutional investors showed that 54% respondents believed that Bitcoin has bottomed out and are optimistic about future price action.
This revelation comes a week after a Bloomberg report showing that the majority of $100,000+ OTC crypto transactions are now performed by institutional investors, instead of retail investors. Institutional interest in the space is increasing, and with the financial infrastructure continuing to evolve, I don’t see them sitting on the sidelines for much longer.
The most interesting part of the Fundstrat survey is the spread between bearish retail traders and bullish institutions — bear markets take their toll on retail traders far more than institutional investors.
We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Thirteen is now available. Episode Thirteen is our interview with the CEO of Internxt about his upcoming beta of distributed storage services using Xcloud. (like a Dropbox). Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop! See you tomorrow!
Doc's Daily Commentary
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Offense – Adding Trades
Offensive Actions for the next trading day:
- Ripple(XRP) is showing positive activity but we don’t want to chase after it unless it moves back into a primary uptrend.
- Same deal for XLM, BTC, and ETH. Volume must accompany breakouts.
Defense – Managing Risk
Defensive Actions for the next trading day:
RSC Managed Crypto Fund
How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab
- ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14
- ETH/USD 2% added 9/9/2018 @ $200.50 (10% more to add)
- LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56. (5% more to add)
- XMR/BTC 2% added 9/21/2018 @ .018BTC
RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund
Technical Analysis Research
In today’s video I talked about how we’re starting to see stealth rallies left and right in some lesser-known coins. We also looked at buy points in a few of our portfolio coins that we’re watching, like XRP and XLM. Contraction leads to expansion….movement should come just about any day now guys, but it needs to come on VOLUME.
In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets. As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry. All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI. Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :
- DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
- WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
- ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
- ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
- ETP/BTC – long @ .000522BTC (9/21) My target is .00072BTC
Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that. I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:
I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here. If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here. My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.
If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..
Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.
I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.
Fundamental Currency Research
For flipping Good.
For long-term holding Neutral.
What is it?
What is our verdict?
What we like: Supernodes are very interesting. No trading commissions for users.
What we don’t like: There are many exchanges already on the market. Transaction mining isn’t currently solvent.
- Project name: Bgogo Exchange
- Token symbol: BGG
- Website: https://bgogo.com
- White paper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf
- Hard cap: 17,000 ETH (15,000 ETH during private sale and to supernodes, 2,000 ETH during public sale) for 10% of total tokens
- Conversion rate: Private sale: 1 ETH = 66,666 BGG; public sale: 1 ETH = 69,999.3 BGG.
- Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $51 million based on current ETH price of $300
- Bonus structure: Whitelisted public sale participants have a 5% bonus over the private sale price, with no lockup period.
- Private sale: The private sale has already been completed with 10,500 ETH raised from 21 supernodes and 4,500 ETH from strategic investors.
- White list: Bgogo’s public sale will be a Genesis Mining event (exact date to be confirmed) that will start 24 hours before mining is officially opened to the public. Only whitelisted users can participate. Details on the Genesis Mining event can be found here: https://bgogo.com/announcement?link=mining.
- ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
- Countries excluded: TBA
- Timeline: TBA
- Token distribution date: TBA
2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)
How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.