Premium Daily Crypto Newsletter

October 15, 2018

Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

Market Surges As Tether Sells Off

Doesn’t Seem Move Is Sustainable, But It’s Certainly A Wild Market Right Now

Right after we just got done chastising the market for its recent boring behaviour, it showed us that it still has many surprises left.

Late in the night (for us), the market suddenly exploded in price and volume.

 

Unfortunately the culprit was everyone’s least-favorite boogeyman: Tether.

 

What happened last night was the culmination (for now) of the last week of news regarding the controversial stablecoin.

After we saw the announcement that Bitfinex had suspended fiat deposits to their platform due to issues, this started to create a slow creeping decline in Tether’s valuation.

 

By the time the party got kicked off last night, Tether was trading for around $0.98 on average, a notable departure for a coin that is supposed to trade 1:1 with the USD.  

 

What occurred was really a perfect storm of circumstance. Shorts had been rising due to BTC’s fall last week, and what really set the spark was a sudden panic flight from USDT to BTC on Bitfinex. With a shortage of BTC on the platform, it created a price arbitrage against other exchanges. BTC was now trading at a 2% premium on Bitfinex, or around $300 more.  

 

We’ve seen this happen before, but never in such a drastic fashion. The supply glut of USDT on Bitfinex was further exacerbated by fears of Bitfinex’s / Tether’s insolvency following recent reports. Add on new transparent and audible stablecoins (two things that Tether certainly lacks) and many holding USDT on exchanges across the crypto space started to panic. Binance, OkEx, Bitforex, Huobi, and many other exchanges started to see massive movement from USDT to BTC.

 

This of course led to a surge in price aa demand surged across the board, driving the price of Bitcoin up over $1000 in the span of an hour on some exchanges. Of course, this was not going well for the BTC shorts, who were liquidated in a spectacular fashion. It should be noted that it’s not accurate to say that the shorts caused the surge, but rather they added fuel to already burning fire.

After a couple hour of this high volume, people started to take profits and that helped to curb the upswing.

 

Before long we were seeing the market start to reverse and even the shorts started to recover as people jumped in on an opportunity to short a massively overbought asset.

 

Truly, it was a spectacle to watch in real-time, and was reminiscent of the market we saw last year around this time.

At this point it’s anyone’s guess as to where Bitcoin goes from here.

 

If it’s not already apparent, it’s time to stop using USDT to park your cryptoassets. Paxos, TrueUSD, and DAI are all exellent choices, and we’re looking into USD Coin (USDC) by Circle and GUSD by Gemini.

 

Tether is likely to continue to operate as it has or die a slow death, but the common argument for why it hasn’t blown up already is that if they were insolvent they would have already gone under when the US Government subpoenaed them last December.

 

Bitfinex has since come out and said that they expect fiat deposits to work tomorrow, and that fiat withdrawals have always worked, but several users have claimed that withdrawals are not going through and that the system is suffering from instability.

The takeaway from this whole debacle is that if you don’t own your keys, you don’t own the crypto. It’s becoming more and more clear that unless Tether begins the process of getting regulatory approval, it’s days are numbered. I would also advise caution against any hasty actions right now. Often when there is confusion and uncertainty, the best move is to wait.

 

In other news today, we learned that Fidelity has launched a new digital assets company focused on custody and trade execution.

 

Yes, I agree with what you’re probably thinking, this seems mundane and routine at this point. We’re probably in the double-digits in terms of Wall St. announcements.

 

But, hear me out.

 

Fidelity’s announcement is for an operational project (i.e., an entirely separate company) that will focus on giving institutional investors access to top notch trading and custody solution for digital assets. They’ve named the company “Fidelity Digital Assets”.

 

From the mouth of Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson:

“Our goal is to make digitally native assets, such as bitcoin, more accessible to investors, we expect to continue investing and experimenting, over the long-term, with ways to make this emerging asset class easier for our clients to understand and use.”

 

So, what’s the takeaway here?

 

For one, Fidelity is an absolutely massive company, managing over $7 trillion in assets for retail investors and institutions.

 

Additionally, they serve as one of the top 401k providers in the U.S. (retirement funds for my non-US readers), and they offer many different financial products.

 

What’s really exciting to me is how they could incorporate cryptocurrency and other assets into these existing financial products that they are industry leaders of.

 

In short, it’s clear Fidelity is making large moves into the digital asset space — and that this isn’t just noise. They’re here to dominate and should become a leading force in this evolving space.

 

So today’s big theme is the ice is starting to clear and we’re starting to see the market move in substantial ways. Moving beyond Tether and institutional players moving in are things we’ve marked as requisite for the space to advance, and it’s fitting we get both on the same day.

 

Undoubtedly, this week is already very interesting.

 

 

Watch Doc’s recent online classes here and here on “Four Rules to Chart Like a Pro.” 

 

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Fourteen is now available. Episode Fourteen is entitled “Atomic Habits and the Four Maxims of Trading.”  Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop! See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • No entries tomorrow. We are starting to notice a lot of “stealth” alt-coin breakouts, and will track them in our swing portfolio. 

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="76496"]

How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab

  • ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14
  • ETH/USD 2% added 9/9/2018 @ $200.50 (10% more to add)
  • LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56.  (5% more to add)
  • XMR/BTC 2% added 9/21/2018 @ .018BTC
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Click on image to download the datasheet

RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="74717"]
What is this? The RSC Altcoin Fund is meant to replace our V1 portfolio. This portfolio, referred to as Portfolio V3, will represent a portfolio that is built upon more risky assets (assets outside the top 20), and is inherently more risky than Portfolio V2, the RSC Managed Crypto Fund (above). We will NOT be actively entering positions for this fund, but we will be updating the portfolio percentages and contents periodically.

Click on image to download the datasheet

Click on the image to download the TXT file

 

Technical Analysis Research

Amazing price action today that is not over as I write this; don’t focus on the WHY of what happened….focus instead of what you will do going forward based on what price does. Listen to tonight’s video analysis on BTC and ETH.   

 

 

 

In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets.   As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry.  All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI.  Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
  • ETP/BTC – long @ .000522BTC (9/21) My target is .00072BTC

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

 

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Bgogo Exchange

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

 
 
 
 
 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: Supernodes are very interesting. No trading commissions for users.

What we don’t like: There are many exchanges already on the market. Transaction mining isn’t currently solvent.

  • Project name: Bgogo Exchange
  • Token symbol: BGG
  • Website: https://bgogo.com
  • White paper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf
  • Hard cap: 17,000 ETH (15,000 ETH during private sale and to supernodes, 2,000 ETH during public sale) for 10% of total tokens
  • Conversion rate: Private sale: 1 ETH = 66,666 BGG; public sale: 1 ETH = 69,999.3 BGG.
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $51 million based on current ETH price of $300
  • Bonus structure: Whitelisted public sale participants have a 5% bonus over the private sale price, with no lockup period.
  • Private sale: The private sale has already been completed with 10,500 ETH raised from 21 supernodes and 4,500 ETH from strategic investors.
  • White list: Bgogo’s public sale will be a Genesis Mining event (exact date to be confirmed) that will start 24 hours before mining is officially opened to the public. Only whitelisted users can participate. Details on the Genesis Mining event can be found here: https://bgogo.com/announcement?link=mining.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: TBA
  • Timeline: TBA
  • Token distribution date: TBA
  •  

Website: https://bgogo.com

Whitepaper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

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