Premium Daily Crypto Newsletter

October 22, 2018

Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

Markets Stay Flat To Open Week

Still Looking For A Spark To Start The Fire

Today’s market was extremely choppy with flat, unremarkable volume.

It’s par for the course at this point, but like all things it will help us get to where we’re going.

 

As evidence of that, we finally know when Bakkt will be launching their futures exchange: December 12th.

 

Importantly, they still have not received approval from the CFTC, but by making their launch date public it does speak to their confidence.

 

As a reminder, Bakkt is a flagship institutional organization pressing into the this space and has been advertised as a scalable on-ramp for institutional, merchant and consumer participation in digital assets.

 

Additionally, it aims to be an open platform for digital assets across global markets and commerce, and was, in part, pitched as a solution for day-to-day crypto payments for merchants.

 

A short reminder of what Bakkt is on the cusp of executing:

 

“Bakkt is designed to enable consumers and institutions to seamlessly buy, sell, store and spend digital assets. Formed with the purpose of bringing trust, efficiency, and commerce to digital assets, Bakkt seeks to develop open technology to connect existing market and merchant infrastructure to the blockchain.

As an initial component of the Bakkt offering, Intercontinental Exchange’s U.S.-based futures exchange and clearinghouse plan to launch a 1-day physically delivered Bitcoin contract along with physical warehousing on December 12, 2018, after receiving CFTC review and approval. These regulated venues will establish new protocols for managing the specific security and settlement requirements of digital currencies. In addition, the clearing house plans to create a separate guarantee fund that will be funded by Bakkt.”

 

The big announcement Bakkt made that had investors excited is that they will offer a physically settled daily futures contract for Bitcoin, which is much more preferable than what the CME and CBOE currently offer. Importantly I called attention to this in a video last month, point out that having their Digital Asset Warehouse offchain gives them the ability to perform rehypothecation and commingling.

 

Seemingly in response, Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler addressed this by stating that Bakkt will not perform these techniques that normally enable them to trade a single asset many times over. In essence, Wall St’s money comes from their ability to take a single asset and borrow against it many times over. We could very well see the defined limitations of Bitcoin’s 21 million coins be superseded by financial institution’s ability to trade “Bitcoin”, or paper Bitcoin that is borrowed against many times over.

 

I am still very skeptical of Bakkt’s position on this. Simply because they say “we will not do this” does not mean that will be true ad infinitum. When they’re a year out, and deem it won’t be noticed by investors, they could easily come out and say, “after careful consideration, we are changing our policy on rehypothecation in order to better meet the demands of our shareholders.”

 

So, unfortunately, Bakkt launching is bittersweet.  

 

This is not a direct criticism of them directly, but rather the coming tide of institutionalization that seems inevitable at this point.  

 

Let’s spend the rest of this newsletter talking about some altcoin portfolio additions we’re making:

DGTX: You’ve probably heard us talk about DGTX, and for good measure. They’re on the cusp of getting on a bigger exchange, they have a big announcement lined up in Q4, they will be presenting at the Malta conference on Nov. 1st, and they will go live Q1 2019. They are aiming to be the feeless version of Bitmex, which we see as being a very popular alternative.

RVN: Unfortunately this one has absolutely skyrocketed lately so right now might not be a good entry point, but we wanted to get in anyways. We should see continued excitement around this one until their mainnet launch on Oct. 31st. The Ravencoin protocol is open-source and available to the public, and focuses on the creation of digital assets on its Proof-of-Work (PoW) blockchain. The blockchain itself is secured by sixteen different hashing algorithms, all of which are rotated on a non-patterned basis. The algorithm changes depending on the final digits in the preceding block hash, making it impossible to predict by ASIC mining machines.

As stated in the initial release notes last year:

“The core developers are currently focused on building the asset layer which will allow Ravencoin to facilitate the transfer of assets.  There is a hard-fork planned for the network to implement this additional asset layer in around October/November 2018 time frame.”

 

I am concerned that it costs 500 RVN which are burned to create an asset. If RVN price is low thats bad for investors, if price is high then RVN isn’t a cost effective platform to launch an asset and people will move into substitute platforms. The flat, unchanging 500 RVN is crude and not likely to lead to optimal outcomes. Hopefully they change this in the future.

QNT: Quant Network (Overledger) aims to be the first inter-operable blockchain operating system that facilitates the internet-scale development of decentralised multi-chains applications.

 

OverLedger is focusing on three goals:

1. Developing an interface to connect the world’s networks to multiple blockchains.

2. Bridging existing networks (e.g. financial services) to new blockchains.

3. Developing a new blockchain operating system with a protocol and a platform to allow developers to easily create next-generation, multi-chain applications.

 

This one has received some great attention lately. Interoperability is always a smart play.

SWM: Swarm held their ICO over a year ago.

 

Swarm is an Ethereum-based investment platform that enables the tokenization of traditional assets such as stocks and real estate, making them more tradeable and more liquid. Importantly, Swarm provides a legal framework to make tokenized securities compatible with regulations around the world.

 

Simply put, the project has massive potential. As crypto continues to make waves internationally, an increasing amount of the working class will double-take and want to dabble, and with global internet usage on the rise, the opportunity will be available to them.

With the ability to aid the operations of experienced investors as well, Swarm is aiming high. They had a busy August 2018, where they released their Market Access Protocol, announced a partnership with OpenFinance Network, and tokenized the popular investing app, Robinhood.


TomoChain: TomoChain is a public EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) compatible blockchain with the following advantages: low transaction fees, fast confirmation times, double validation, and randomisation for security guarantees.

TomoChain is an innovative solution to the scalability problem with the Ethereum blockchain, and other current blockchain platforms

Q3 was a busy quarter for TomoChain, successfully launching testnet 2.0 — as well as the Testnet wallet, Tomo Scan, Tomo Master and Tomo Stats. Additionally the walk-through for setting up a Testnet Masternode was released and there are several test nodes currently running.

The draft sharding design paper was also released — which outlines how sharding will be implemented using TomoChain’s unique masternode architecture. It is well worth a read.

Mainnet is due to launch this quarter (Q4), likely late November/early December.

 

 

Watch Doc’s recent online classes here and here on “Four Rules to Chart Like a Pro.” 

 

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Fourteen is now available. Episode Fourteen is entitled “Atomic Habits and the Four Maxims of Trading.”  Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop! See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • The only thing moving at present are the coins we’re featuring on our Swing watchlist. 

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="76496"]

How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab

  • ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14
  • ETH/USD 2% added 9/9/2018 @ $200.50 (10% more to add)
  • LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56.  (5% more to add)
  • XMR/BTC 2% added 9/21/2018 @ .018BTC
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Click on image to download the datasheet

RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="78512"]
What is this? The RSC Altcoin Fund is meant to replace our V1 portfolio. This portfolio, referred to as Portfolio V3, will represent a portfolio that is built upon more risky assets (assets outside the top 20), and is inherently more risky than Portfolio V2, the RSC Managed Crypto Fund (above). We will NOT be actively entering positions for this fund, but we will be updating the portfolio percentages and contents periodically.

Click on image to download the datasheet

Click on the image to download the TXT file

 

Technical Analysis Research

In today’s video I show how to bring up a chart of DigiTex (DGTX) which is not yet available to chart through TradingView. Few of our portfolio coins are moving; that will change soon. 

 

 

 

In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets.   As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry.  All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI.  Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
  • ETP/BTC – long @ .000522BTC (9/21) My target is .00072BTC

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

 

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Bgogo Exchange

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

 
 
 
 
 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: Supernodes are very interesting. No trading commissions for users.

What we don’t like: There are many exchanges already on the market. Transaction mining isn’t currently solvent.

  • Project name: Bgogo Exchange
  • Token symbol: BGG
  • Website: https://bgogo.com
  • White paper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf
  • Hard cap: 17,000 ETH (15,000 ETH during private sale and to supernodes, 2,000 ETH during public sale) for 10% of total tokens
  • Conversion rate: Private sale: 1 ETH = 66,666 BGG; public sale: 1 ETH = 69,999.3 BGG.
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $51 million based on current ETH price of $300
  • Bonus structure: Whitelisted public sale participants have a 5% bonus over the private sale price, with no lockup period.
  • Private sale: The private sale has already been completed with 10,500 ETH raised from 21 supernodes and 4,500 ETH from strategic investors.
  • White list: Bgogo’s public sale will be a Genesis Mining event (exact date to be confirmed) that will start 24 hours before mining is officially opened to the public. Only whitelisted users can participate. Details on the Genesis Mining event can be found here: https://bgogo.com/announcement?link=mining.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: TBA
  • Timeline: TBA
  • Token distribution date: TBA
  •  

Website: https://bgogo.com

Whitepaper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

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