Bitcoin ETF Options Could Send Bitcoin Much Higher

Article by Anthony Pompliano

To investors,

I published a conversation with Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, on the podcast yesterday. The episode has been very popular. It also led to a spirited debate that I think is worth covering in today’s letter.

First, my conversation with Jeff was centered around the impact of bitcoin ETF options. These options were recently approved by the SEC and should be rolled out in the coming months.

My immediate reaction when I heard the news was the new ETF options will bring more adoption, which will continue the trend of diminishing volatility. Jeff had a very different view, so we decided to set up a conversation to discuss the various perspectives.

This is the beauty of the bitcoin industry. It is all about learning. Learning by studying and learning from each other.

Second, Jeff points out that bitcoin is unique since the volatility goes up as the price of the digital currency goes up. Traditional assets have the inverse occur. A higher price usually leads to lower volatility. This takes some time to get used to, but it serves as a strong incentive for people to buy the asset in bull markets. Momentum is a hell of a drug.

Third, Jeff points out how important ETFs were for the adoption of bitcoin. This happened despite more than a decade of bitcoin onramps like crypto exchanges being present. Jeff explicitly states “sometimes fixing the conduits for a financial wrappers for access matter a great deal.” So many people thought the ETFs would not matter. They were wrong. ETFs unlocked access to bitcoin for an entirely new cohort of investors.

Jeff explains that the new bitcoin ETF options will do something similar. There have been bitcoin options available to investors for years, but they were not in the venues (nor the wrappers) that sophisticated, institutional investors are used to. Now that options are coming to those trusted venues, we should expect increased adoption of the financial instruments.

Lastly, Jeff explains what could happen in a gamma squeeze, especially since no one can create more bitcoin to satisfy a significant increase in demand. Think of what happened with Gamestop, but without the corporation issuing new shares.

Gamestop saw their stock price soar. They issued more shares to temper the volatility and put cash on their balance sheet. If no one can create more bitcoin, then the thought process is a gamma squeeze could send the price of bitcoin much, much higher in a short period of time.

Regardless of whether you believe Jeff or not, you should listen to this episode.

This conversation has something for everyone — the bitcoin bulls will be excited about potential future price appreciation. The bitcoin bears will complain that bitcoiners don’t understand financial markets. Long-term holders and critical thinkers will use the information to learn about the new ETF options and how they may impact the market.

Give this episode a listen and let me know what you think.