Bitcoin Pricing in $2040 Expected Move Tomorrow

If we look at the “at the money” straddle for tomorrow’s 12SEP Bitcoin spot options in Deribit, we’ll see that the straddle price (for the at the money puts and calls) is +/- $2040. That means that a one standard deviation move is going to be up or down about $2040 from this point into the closing print of these options in 36 hours.

This also equates to there being a 68.2% probability of the price closing inside of the range of $55,444 to $59,524 when these options expire.

This is a little larger than normal because of tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index report which comes out at 0830a ET/1230p UTC. This report will affect IF, and by HOW MUCH the Fed can drop interest rates next week. This is affecting risk assets around the globe until next week’s meeting on the 18th is past.

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