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September 11, 2018

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Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

Markets Drift Lower With Fears Of ICO Regulation

Once Again We Are Testing A Yearly Low

The market drifted lower today after it looked like it was starting to find its footing.

The big headline today was that a federal judge ruled that U.S. securities laws may cover ICOs. This could very well be the precedent in the government’s effort to regulate billions of dollars in cryptocurrency offerings. Moreover, it is the harbinger of the reckoning I’ve been warning about for a time: Most ICOs are securities, and they will face harsh punishments once the US government can collectively take action.


Judge Dearie wrote in a statement:

 

  • “Per the indictment, no diamonds or real estate, or any coins, tokens, or currency of any imaginable sort, ever existed — despite promises made to investors to the contrary,” Dearie said in his ruling. “Simply labeling an investment opportunity as a ‘virtual currency’ or ‘cryptocurrency’ does not transform an investment contract — a security — into a currency.”

 

So what does this mean? Thankfully for right now, nothing. The ruling was over a specific case, but again it is a precedent for further rulings. This makes us that much more weary of investing in ICOs, and that much more open to other, more legal channels, such as STOs, or Security Token Offerings.

 

To highlight the state of the ICO market right now, a new research report from an independent fintech research firm says that funding for ICOs has reached a new low – with funding levels not seen since April 2017.

Interesting to note is that the price trajectory of Ethereum, the blockchain and cryptocurrency most often used to build crypto projects and fund ICOs, has very closely followed monthly ICO raising totals.

 

Ethereum is currently trading at new one-year lows of $186 at the time of this writing.

 

ICOs can be to blame for what we’ve seen recently with Ethereum.

 

Using such a low-liquidity asset to raise money ends up having a feedback loop effect in both directions. When the price is going up, people feel like they want to “diversify” so the chuck their ETH into ICOs thinking they’ve been responsible with their profits.

Now, the result is these tokens end up being even more thinly traded and it looks like their dollar value is skyrocketing along with ETH (since most of the liquidity is on the ETH trading pair).

Naturally, people want to get in on these soaring tokens, so they buy ETH, pushing the price up, then buy the token with it, pushing the token up on the ETH ratio.

All of these thinly traded books create the illusion of massive wealth accumulation. In reality, not much actual value has been added to the system.

Of course, this then becomes obvious once people try to cash out and the thin order books work in the opposite direction.

All these teams raised multiple millions of “dollars” off of maybe a few million actually entering the ecosystem. Now there isn’t enough to go around and everyone is fighting for the scraps of actual wealth left.

 

But, as we saw with the Gemini Dollar announcement, real project do still want to develop on Ethereum.

 

This is a tough time to be an Ethereum holder. There is a very real possibility it will not make it out of this next year as the same dominate coin we saw in 2017. The developments taking place right now for Ethereum will likely take years to implement, and that is time for its competitors to catch up.

 

Right now is the time when platforms are fighting for a dominant position so that when they become relevant again, they will be the one to shine. EOS, NEO, Stellar, and many more are looking to take market dominance away from ETH. They may do very well do so.

 

Last for today, we should discuss Canada’s first and only regulated BTC fund, First Block Capital, which has obtained mutual fund trust status. Investors can now put their fund units in self-directed registered accounts.

For now, the fund is only available to accredited investors, but they can now deposit those holdings into accounts that provide significant tax benefits for retirement and savings purposes. Interestingly, and highlighting what I was just saying about platforms, the fund will be available to investors through NEO connect.

 

The potential explosive growth in crypto compounded with the additional tax benefits may be enough to convince a larger number of accredited investors to pour capital into cryptoassets through this fund.

 

One thing’s for sure: don’t doubt this space even if things look bleak.

 

 

This week I’m traveling to San Francisco this week to speak at Blockworld, Stanford University, and attend the Litecoin Summit. I look forward to continuing this discourse with those in attendance.

Doc has started to do a frequent live “Trade School” video; watch for announcements and links in the “Premium Chat” room of our Discord site. 

If you missed Mav’s webinar “Top Ten Ways to Create Passive Income With Crypto” then you can watch the webinar at this link. 

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Twelve is now available. Episode Twelve goes into the topic of “market manipulation.” Why it happens, when it happens, and how to protect yourself from it. Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop!

See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • If XLM consolidates and holds its base we’ll consider adding it to our RSC Fund.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="72847"]
How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab

  • ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14
  • ETH/USD 2% added 9/9/2018 @ $200.50 (10% more to add)
  • LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56.  (6% more to add)
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Click on image to download the datasheet

RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="74717"]
What is this? The RSC Altcoin Fund is meant to replace our V1 portfolio. This portfolio, referred to as Portfolio V3, will represent a portfolio that is built upon more risky assets (assets outside the top 20), and is inherently more risky than Portfolio V2, the RSC Managed Crypto Fund (above). We will NOT be actively entering positions for this fund, but we will be updating the portfolio percentages and contents periodically.

Click on image to download the datasheet

Click on the image to download the TXT file

 

Technical Analysis Research

XLM appears to be in accumulation; let’s let it base out first before considering it. Any base that holds at that level in these times will only get stronger.

 

In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets.   As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry.  All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI.  Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

 

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Bgogo Exchange

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: Supernodes are very interesting. No trading commissions for users.

What we don’t like: There are many exchanges already on the market. Transaction mining isn’t currently solvent.

  • Project name: Bgogo Exchange
  • Token symbol: BGG
  • Website: https://bgogo.com
  • White paper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf
  • Hard cap: 17,000 ETH (15,000 ETH during private sale and to supernodes, 2,000 ETH during public sale) for 10% of total tokens
  • Conversion rate: Private sale: 1 ETH = 66,666 BGG; public sale: 1 ETH = 69,999.3 BGG.
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $51 million based on current ETH price of $300
  • Bonus structure: Whitelisted public sale participants have a 5% bonus over the private sale price, with no lockup period.
  • Private sale: The private sale has already been completed with 10,500 ETH raised from 21 supernodes and 4,500 ETH from strategic investors.
  • White list: Bgogo’s public sale will be a Genesis Mining event (exact date to be confirmed) that will start 24 hours before mining is officially opened to the public. Only whitelisted users can participate. Details on the Genesis Mining event can be found here: https://bgogo.com/announcement?link=mining.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: TBA
  • Timeline: TBA
  • Token distribution date: TBA

Website: https://bgogo.com

Whitepaper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

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