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The Macro Forces To Pay Attention To In The Weeks Ahead

Equity markets snapped their three-week losing streak as market participants regained confidence from weakening oil prices, the rally in the dollar finally ran out of steam, and inflation came down. For the week, the Dow climbed 2.7%, the S&P 500 added 3.7%, and the tech-focused Nasdaq surged over 4%.

The week ahead is packed with key inflation reports, including the release of the consumer and producer price index, and retail sales data, which will determine where markets are headed next.

Inflation Update

The week ahead is packed with crucial inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in its next meeting and, subsequently, the direction of where the market is headed next.

US CPI Data, Source:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of August on Tuesday. CPI, which tracks the rise in prices on the demand side, is forecasted to rise slightly to 8.7%, compared to 8.5% in July. While inflation has slowly been trending down from the 40-year peak of 9.1% seen in June due to falling energy costs, prices for other goods and services are continuing to rise.

US Monthly PPI Data, Source:

On the other end of the Isle is the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks inflation on the supply side. PPI is expected to continue to decline in August by around 0.3%, after showing an unexpected contraction of 0.5% in July. The report, which many consumers as a leading indicator for inflation, has risen by 8.9% annually, which is the lowest level seen since October 2021. As demand continues to weaken, driven by inflation, PPI could fall further, triggering a pivot from the Federal Reserve and, subsequently, a rebound in the stock indices.

Retail Sales

Retail sales will be another crucial factor in tracking the robustness of consumer demand in the face of tightening macroeconomic conditions. The US Census Bureau is set to release the report on Retail Sales for the month of August on Thursday. Market participants are estimating Retail sales to remain stagnant in August, similar to the numbers seen in July.

US Retail Sales Growth, Source: TradingEconomics

Retail Sales have been slowing in recent months due to several factors, including the impact of inflation and declining consumer confidence, which has impacted purchasing habits. The Fed has considered retail Sales to be robust throughout the year, but weakness in the indicator could lead to different policy decisions.

S&P 500 Chart

S&P 500 Chart, Source: TradingView

Bottom Line

The week ahead is packed with crucial reports on sales and inflation, which will surely impact the decision-making ability of the Federal Reserve in its next meeting, and subsequently decide where the markets are headed next.


The ReadySetCrypto "Three Token Pillars" Community Portfolio (V3)

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The “Three Token Pillars” portfolio is democratically proportioned between the Three Pillars of the Token Economy & Interchain:

CryptoCurreny – Security Tokens (STO) – Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

With this portfolio, we will identify and take advantage of the opportunities within the Three
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The Second Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 was to give us a general idea of the weightings people desire in each of the three pillars and also member’s risk tolerance. The Third Phase of the RSC Community Portfolio V3 has us closing in on a finalized portfolio allocation before we consolidated onto the highest quality projects.

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What is the goal of this portfolio? 

The “Top Ten Crypto” portfolio is a democratically proportioned portfolio balanced based on votes from members of the RSC community as to what they believe are the top 10 projects by potential.
This portfolio should be much more useful given the ever-changing market dynamics. In short, you rank the projects you believe deserve a spot in the top 10. It should represent a portfolio and rank that you believe will stand the test of time. Once we have a good cross-section, we can study and make an assessment as to where we see value and perhaps where some diamonds in the rough opportunities exist. In a perfect world, we will end up with a Pareto-style distribution that describes the largest value capture in the market.
To give an update on the position, each one listed in low to high relative risk:
SoV/money == BTC, DCR
Platforms == ETH, XTZ
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DeFi == MKR / SNX and stablecoins
It is the most realistic way for us to distill the entirety of what we have learned (and that includes the RSC community opinion). We have an array of articles that have gradually picked off one by one different projects, some of which end up being many thousands of words to come to this conclusion. It is not capitulation because we all remain in the market. It is simply a consolidation of quality. We seek the cream of the crop as the milk turns sour on aggregate.

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