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September 24, 2018

Crypto Market Commentary

Mav's Daily Commentary

Markets Taper Off

Are We Falling Back Down Or Is This Just A Resting Bull?

After holding steady around the 225 Billion mark since Friday, today the market tapered off as it struggled to maintain that level. It found support, for the time being, around 220 Billion.

Of course, last week Ripple (XRP) had a record-breaking week, with its unprecedented eclipse of Ethereum on September 21 to briefly stand as the second-largest crypto in the entire market.


Ripple’s eye-popping growth got kicked off with the Sept. 19 announcement that U.S. bank PNC will begin using Ripple’s xCurrent software solution to expedite cross-border transactions for the bank’s U.S. commercial clients.

Last week notably also saw hints that Ripple is likely to launch a commercial application of its xRapid liquidity solution for banks “in the next month or so.”

That was further cemented today as Ripple announced that they have 7 partners ready to use xRapid.

 

Crypto exchanges Bittrex, Bitso, and Coins.ph are the latest partners that will use xRapid to send instant cross-border payments with low fees.

In addition, London-based Mercury FX is also on board after recently completing a pilot test and calling the raw speed of xRapid “unbelievable.”

 

SBI’s new crypto exchange, SBI Virtual Currencies, Cuallix, a company that operates in the US, Mexico and Hong Kong, and Canadian cross-border payments company Zip Remit is on board as well.

 

This comes as Sagar Sarbhai, Ripple’s head of regulatory relations for Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, recently said the company is gearing up for xRapid’s official launch in about a month.

 

So does this mean that Ripple is a good buy?

 

Possibly. It certainly is one of the first to see real-world use, and that could cement its place as one of the best payment coins to invest in for the foreseeable future.

 

Douglas Borthwick, an economist, recently was quoted saying,

 

“There are some cryptos that are working with regulators. Ripple would be an example. I can imagine in the next five years instead of doing sterling against the dollar or sterling against the yen; I can see these transfer transactions with sterling versus Ripple.”

 

Of course, it can be said that anything is possible regarding blockchain within five years, so I won’t claim Borthwick is clairvoyant.

Ripple is certainly one of the most contentious coins in the crypto space. I covered some of the criticisms against it regarding centralization and possible security status last week, but even xRapid isn’t some miracle product.

 

Western Union recently announced that its pilot of xRapid did not save the company time or money. Ripple says the results show smaller financial institutions and startups are more likely to initially see significant savings with the technology.

 

Even still, we can’t deny there is some “juice” behind XRP right now, and there could be even more opportunity for growth in the next month leading up to the product release.

 

Given that I’ll re-adjust our portfolio to reflect the growing demand for XRP. I will be adding 2 percentage points to XRP by taking 1 from BCH and 1 from LTC. This is not to say they are suddenly poor investments, only that there isn’t much on the horizon for either with the exception of a BCH Hard fork on November 15th.

 

We’ll also be dropping our 1% in OMG as we don’t expect much from it until Plasma’s release, which is not officially announced yet.

 

We’ll move that 1% into Zcash in response to their upcoming Network upgrade (sapling) by the end of this month, as well as Vitalik Buterin’s recent comments regarding Zcash. Writing on an ETH research forum in a post originally published on Saturday, Buterin said that Ethereum can borrow a technological innovation from privacy-centric cryptocurrency Zcash to “mass-validate” ETH transactions.

Essentially, he claims that technology, ZK-SNARKS, allows relaying nodes to “verify the correctness of computations without having to execute them” or “learn what was executed,” and most importantly could help ETH scale to 500 transactions per second, up from the current cap of approximately 15.

That not only represents a 3,200% increase in network capacity but also accomplishes this feat apart from Plasma and other second-layer scaling solutions that increase network capacity by moving the majority of transactions offchain while retaining its security. If used in tandem with second-layer technologies following their eventual launch, the scaling improvement would be even more pronounced.

We’re also going to drop our 2% in Dash and move it into 0x. This is in response to the upcoming Expo release, which will help 0x get exposure as the dydx exchange responsible for Expo is building open-source protocols for decentralized margin trading and derivatives. As we see decentralized margin trading and derivative being a big part of the upcoming market, this is a logical move. Not to mention, the 0x headquarters is just down the street from Coinbase.

That’s all the moves we’re making today. Hopefully you can see that the market is starting to heat up, and we could be nearing some interesting days ahead.

 

Keep at it!

Doc will be doing a live class this Wednesday evening (and repeating it Thursday evening and Friday afternoon) on the topic “Chart Like a Pro: Four Powerful Rules for Crypto Trading.” He’ll boil down his advanced multi-timeframe Fractal analysis into four simple rules which can add structure to any system. Sign up for Wednesday’s session here

 

We’ve started to produce episodes for The ReadySetCrypto Podcast; all of our episodes are posted on our blog (and on iTunes) and Episode Thirteen is now available. Episode Thirteen is our interview with the CEO of Internxt about his upcoming beta of distributed storage services using Xcloud. (like a Dropbox). Look for more episodes shortly as we comb the crypto space for valuable interviews, and create valuable content to keep you in the loop! See you tomorrow!

Doc's Daily Commentary

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Offense – Adding Trades

Offensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • No entries showing at this point.

Defense – Managing Risk

Defensive Actions for the next trading day: 

  • None.

RSC Managed Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="76496"]

How to read this portfolio: Please read through the FAQ tab

  • ETH/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $363.14
  • ETH/USD 2% added 9/9/2018 @ $200.50 (10% more to add)
  • LTC/USD 2% added 8/10/2018 @ $62.56.  (5% more to add)
  • XMR/BTC 2% added 9/21/2018 @ .018BTC
What is the RSC Managed Cryptocurrency Fund?: We have one goal: To beat the market. To do this, we aim to balance risk vs. reward. Additionally, we aim to enter positions advantageously and in small increments, not all at once. As such, the pie chart you see above is representative of our “expected” portfolio, but will likely not match our “actual” portfolio. Why don’t you just buy into every position at once?: We aim to not only beat the market, but do so in a way that allows us greater leverage than simply buying in all at once. To do this, we will DCA into our positions to lower the average buy-in, and allow us greater yield from our initial capital seed. This also allows you the flexibility to follow our documented moves or immediately buy in when you want. We expect this will help you follow along easier as our moves are more deliberate. By setting targets for allocation, you know exactly how we intend to diversify our portfolio. Why are you only targeting large caps? Where is ____ coin?: We are targeting large market capitalization coins regardless of our belief in their viability as this enables us to diversify our risk and improve our chances of staying positive. We can hedge our bets by creating a fund that incorporates all of the major assets yet distinguishes between them based on the allocation. For example, we allocated more to Ethereum over its competitors as we feel it has more built-in longevity given its status as the default ICO platform. Of course, that can change, and as such we will be periodically rebalancing this fund as we redetermine viability and yield. Can I invest in this fund / can you manage my funds?: Not at this time. We are looking for ways to legally tokenize a fund such as this, but at this time no avenue exists for US citizens. Will we be adding small caps / ICOs?: It is likely we will be starting a separate fund dedicated solely to small caps / ICOs. We feel that the market simply isn’t showing favorable risk / reward signs for us to be trading them right now, but that will likely change soon. Why was the previous portfolio discontinued?: We felt it wasn’t correctly connecting with our customers as we started it in late 2017 and even during the 2018 bear market we were still very profitable. The same could not be said for customers who joined us during the bear market and tried to replicate our portfolio. Simply put: we wanted a portfolio that was easier to follow along with and less risky for our customers while still aiming for profitability.

Click on image to download the datasheet

RSC Altcoin-Exclusive Crypto Fund

[visualizer id="74717"]
What is this? The RSC Altcoin Fund is meant to replace our V1 portfolio. This portfolio, referred to as Portfolio V3, will represent a portfolio that is built upon more risky assets (assets outside the top 20), and is inherently more risky than Portfolio V2, the RSC Managed Crypto Fund (above). We will NOT be actively entering positions for this fund, but we will be updating the portfolio percentages and contents periodically.

Click on image to download the datasheet

Click on the image to download the TXT file

 

Technical Analysis Research

Friday’s entry into the ETP swing looks good so far, especially if the price is able to CLOSE above the breakout level today (Sunday). Everyone wants to get into XLM at this point but we have to wait for the next base to set up. A new higher high is a very good thing for XLM and for the rest of the crypto market, wherever it comes from.

 

 

 

In August we introduced a new “fund” project that we’ll be creating over the next few months, in piecemeal form. I will be slowly and methodically creating a “fund” with (currently) 23 assets that we will do “live” or at least very plainly indicate where we intend to enter portions of assets.   As long as the market continues grinding down in a bear, we will use sentiment-based entries to hopefully secure a better entry.  All that I saw were bear flags tonight; we are close to some good entries on coins showing positive divergence on the RSI.  Going forward into the end of this year my plan is to do a LOT more swing trading; what would really help is a decent derivatives exchange. I am looking for big things from Digitex in this regard, which will be a commission-free futures platform however all trades must be made in DGTX as the base currency. Put yourself on the waitlist for this platform by clicking here. I have started to acquire DGTX tokens at Mercatox in anticipation of them turning up their platform, and this looks to be a good candidate for a pump prior to the production event. Here are the recent swings that we’re tracking in the portfolio below; :

  • DGB/BTC – long @ .00000608 (7/23). My target exit is .000008BTC.
  • WTC/BTC – Long @ .00155980BTC (4/23). My target exit is at .002BTC.
  • ADA/BTC – Long @ .00003931BTC (5/1) My target exit is at .00005BTC.
  • ONT/BTC – long @ .0008905 (5/20) My target is .0013BTC.
  • ETP/BTC – long @ .000522BTC (9/21) My target is .00072BTC

Please keep in mind that if you want to follow these trades, I am using FIXED RISK POSITION SIZING. This means that I am using a fixed amount of risk capital that is based on my account size, like 2%. I am assuming that the trade will burn to the ground and that I will lose that entire capital position! Only in this manner can one effectively manage a position the way that you have to. If you’ve every checked your blockfolio nervously every 5 minutes when you’re underwater, this will prevent that.   I will track these positions in this area and not in the main portfolio section. I will use a public portfolio tool to do so, which you can access by clicking below:

 

Public Swing Portfolio Link

I hope you all got a chance to catch my webinar class from earlier this year; if not, the replay is available here.  If you missed my earlier webinar, “More Profits in 2018; Ten Ways to Chart Like a Pro.” then you can catch the replay here.   My new class “Introduction to Technical Analysis” is now available via our online store.

If you go to buy any of our courses at our online “store” you can receive $10 off the street price with your member’s “coupon code” of member18crypto..

We’ve started to do some swing trades on alts, tracked in the previous section. I am mostly focusing on the top 10-20 coins for now until we confirm that we’re back into an overall bull market.
I am doing the majority of my Technical Analysis work on TradingView, and I have a BitFinex app on both my iPad and Android smartphone. All of these charting platforms call a TradingView API. TradingView is the 800 lb. gorilla in the Crypto charting space until the “established” players want to make a go at Crypto, like Ninjatrader, Tradestation, eSignal, Sierra charts, etc. My sense is that TradingView has such a head start that it will be very difficult for the big boys to make a dent in this space for a while. Until that point, TradingView has almost a monopoly in this space. If you have a particular tool that you think is superior, please let me know.   You can access the BitFinex and TradingView platforms for free, however there are some paid features that you might want to consider depending on your needs, such as expanded watchlists, different study sets, account alerts, etc.

 

  Coinigy is a great tool for determining prices on each exchange, however I may not have access to the full suite of tools on TradingView charts. I am currently not using it as a front-end GUI for my exchanges, which it supports.I also use Blockfolio and/or Delta to give me a quick snapshot of my holdings, and find that it does an excellent job to aggregate all of my holdings into one easy-to-read snapshot of my cryptocurrencies, which are typically located in many different places.

 

I am also trialing the Profit Trailer and CryptoHopper trading apps which are working well in this choppy market.

Fundamental Currency Research

In this section we’ll feature a daily ICO or new coin we think you should check out. Based on your country, you may not be able to participate in the ICO, but you will be able to trade the coin once it is listed on an exchange following its ICO (usually only a couple of weeks). ICOs are where a lot of money in crypto is made. Here’s proof.   That said, we should warn you: ICOs are highly risky endeavours and you need to mitigate any potential losses. Treat it as money you’ve lost the moment you contribute to the ICO. We are not responsible for the ICO’s performance. Today’s featured ICO / New Coin is:

Bgogo Exchange

For flipping Good.

For long-term holding Neutral.

What is it? 

 
 
 
 
 

What is our verdict? 

What we like: Supernodes are very interesting. No trading commissions for users.

What we don’t like: There are many exchanges already on the market. Transaction mining isn’t currently solvent.

  • Project name: Bgogo Exchange
  • Token symbol: BGG
  • Website: https://bgogo.com
  • White paper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf
  • Hard cap: 17,000 ETH (15,000 ETH during private sale and to supernodes, 2,000 ETH during public sale) for 10% of total tokens
  • Conversion rate: Private sale: 1 ETH = 66,666 BGG; public sale: 1 ETH = 69,999.3 BGG.
  • Maximum market cap at ICO on a fully diluted basis: $51 million based on current ETH price of $300
  • Bonus structure: Whitelisted public sale participants have a 5% bonus over the private sale price, with no lockup period.
  • Private sale: The private sale has already been completed with 10,500 ETH raised from 21 supernodes and 4,500 ETH from strategic investors.
  • White list: Bgogo’s public sale will be a Genesis Mining event (exact date to be confirmed) that will start 24 hours before mining is officially opened to the public. Only whitelisted users can participate. Details on the Genesis Mining event can be found here: https://bgogo.com/announcement?link=mining.
  • ERC20 token: Yes (will be switched to native tokens when the mainnet is launched)
  • Countries excluded: TBA
  • Timeline: TBA
  • Token distribution date: TBA
  •  

Website: https://bgogo.com

Whitepaper: https://bgogo.com/assets/white-paper/BGG-Token-Whitepaper-v1.8EN.pdf

2017- 2018Q2 Portfolio (Discontinued)

Desired Holdings

  How to read this portfolio: Please click on the Chart Key tab above for definitions and color codes. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below.

Tier 4

ZIL

IAM

FT

DATA

ELEC

None.

Tier 2

MOD

 Tier 3

REQ

SUB

LINK

NANO

KNC

Tier 4

BNTY

TAU

WISH

PHR

LOCI

XBY

ELA

ECC

POE

HPB

BIX

EVE

XVG

NULS

DNA

How to read this portfolio: Ticker: Contains the ticker code for the coin. You can search this ticker in Coinmarketcap to learn more about the coin. The color denotes the risk tier by our evaluation. Dark Red = T1, Dark Green = T2, Dark Blue = T3, Light Blue = T4 (Colors in the Ticker column do not interact with the colors in the other columns) Cost Basis = Our average purchase price for this coin. Current price = The average price of the coin based on the exchanges it is listed on. Strategy = What we plan to do with this coin. Staking is receiving dividends for that coin. Master node is also staking, but with a higher return rate for having a (large) number of that coin. Stop = Our exit point, if it exists What do the colors mean? The colors in the ticker column represent the risk profile of that coin. The colors in the other columns reflect what sector(s) that coin belongs to. Some coins belong to multiple sectors, which is indicated by multiple colors. The colors correspond to our 7 categories in the graphic below

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